Türkiye’de Para Politikasının Konut Fiyatlarına Etkisi

Öz

Çalışmanın amacı Türkiye ekonomisinde para politikası ve konut fiyatları arasındaki ilişkiyi ampirik olarak araştırmaktır. Ampirik analiz yöntemi olarak Yapısal VAR analizi tercih edilmektedir. Çalışmada kullanılan değişkenler; federal fon oranı, sanayi üretim endeksi, yapı kullanım izni, reel konut fiyatları ve gecelik faiz oranıdır. Analiz 2011:1-2017:12 dönemini kapsamakta ve aylık veriler kullanılmaktadır. Analiz sonuçları, para politikasının konut fiyatları üzerinde etkisi olmadığını göstermektedir. Aynı dönemde, konut fiyatları yalnızca kendi gecikmeli değerlerine önemli düzeyde tepki vermektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Konut Fiyatları,Para Politikası,Yapısal VAR

The Effect of Monetary Policy on House Prices in the Turkey

Öz

The aim of the study is to empirically investigate the relationship between monetary policies and house prices in Turkey’s economy. The Structural VAR analysis is preferred as the method of empirical analysis. The variables used in the study are federal funding rate, industrial production index, building use permit, real house prices and overnight interest rate. The analysis includes the periods between 2011:1 and 2017:12 and monthly data is used. The results of the analysis indicate that monetary policy has no effect on house prices. In the same period, the house prices only reacted to the lagged values of the house prices,  significantly.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• House Prices,Monetary Policy,Structural VAR

Kaynakça

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