OKA Ülkelerinde Kamu Harcamalarının Döngüselliği

Öz

Ekonomik dalgalanmaların negatif etkilerini hafifletmek için mali otoriteler sıklıkla konjonktür karşıtı politikalara başvurmaktadır. Ancak, bazıları da mali disiplini korumak adına bu dalgalanmalara tepki vermeyerek konjonktür yanlısı politikayı tercih etmektedirler. Bu çalışma, bahsedilen bu ilişkiyi Ortadoğu ve Kuzey Afrika (OKA) ülkeleri için 1981-2017 yıllarını kapsayacak şekilde incelemektedir. Vektör Otoregresif (VAR) metodolojisi kullanılan çalışmanın sonuçlarına göre incelenen ülkeler arasında Cezayir, Bahreyn, Mısır, Ürdün, Suudi Arabistan ve Tunus’un konjonktür karşıtı politika uyguladığı görülmektedir. Ancak, etki-tepki fonksiyonları detaylı incelendiğinde Cezayir, Mısır ve Ürdün için istatistiksel anlamlılık bulunamadığı tespit edilmiştir. Bölgede daha güçlü ve istikrarlı yönetim yapısına sahip ülkelerde ekonomik dalgalanma dönemlerinde krizin etkilerini önlemeye yönelik adımların daha kolay atıldığı söylenebilecektir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Maliye Politikası
• Mali Duruş
• Konjonktür karşıtı
• Ekonomik Dalgalanmalar
• OKA

Cyclicality of Government Consumption in Selected MENA Economies

Öz

To alleviate the negative impacts of fluctuations, fiscal authorities frequently resort to counter-cyclical policies while some of them do not follow a pro-cyclical stance for fiscal discipline. Based upon this nexus, this study investigates how selected Middle East, and North African (MENA) countries respond to the movements in the economic growth through fiscal policies in the period between 1981-2017. The Vector Autoregression (VAR) methodology is employed to analyze the cyclicality of fiscal policies. The results demonstrate that Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and Tunisia tend to follow counter-cyclical policies in terms of government final consumption expenditure. However, the impulse responses of government consumption are not significant for Algeria, Egypt, and Jordan. It is concluded that countries with stronger and stable government structures tend to give quick responses to economic fluctuations.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Fiscal policy
• Fiscal stance
• Counter-cyclical
• Business cycles
• MENA

Kaynakça

1. Abdih, Y.; Lopez-Murphy, P.; Roitman, A.; Sahay, R. (2010), “The cyclicality of fiscal policy in the Middle East and Central Asia: is the current crisis different?”, IMF Working Papers, pp. 1-26.
2. Abell, J. D. (1990), “Twin deficits during the 1980s: An empirical investigation”, Journal of macroeconomics, 12(1), Vol. 12, No. 1, pp. 81-96.
3. Afonso, A.; Sousa, R. M. (2012), “The macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy”, Applied Economics, Vol. 44 No. 34, pp. 4439-4454.
4. Aghion, P.; Hemous, D.; Kharroubi, E. (2014), “Cyclical fiscal policy, credit constraints, and industry growth”, Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 62, pp. 41-58. Volume 62. Ahmed, H.; Miller, S. M. (2000), “Crowding‐out and crowding‐in effects of the components of government expenditure”, Contemporary Economic Policy, Vol. 18, No. 1, pp. 124-133.
5. Alesina, A.; Campante, F. R.; Tabellini, G. (2008), “Why is fiscal policy often procyclical?”, Journal of the European economic association, Vol. 6, No. 5, pp. 1006-1036.
6. Ali, S.; Irum, S.; Ali, A. (2008), “Whether fiscal stance or monetary policy is effective for economic growth in case of South Asian countries”, The Pakistan Development Review, Vol. 47, No. 4, pp. 791-799.
7. Anshasy, AA El.; Bradley, MD. (2012), “Oil prices and the fiscal policy response in oil-exporting countries”, Journal of Policy Modeling, Vol. 34, No. 5, pp. 605-620.
8. Belguith, S. O.; Gabsi, F. B. (2019), “Public Debt Sustainability in Tunisia: Empirical Evidence Estimating Time-Varying Parameters”, Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Vol. 10, No. 2, pp. 550-560.

9. Bova, E.; P. Medas; T. Poghosyan (2016), “Resource Revenue Volatility and Macroeconomic Stability in Resource‐rich Countries: The Role of Fiscal Policy”, International Monetary Fund. Vol. 16.
10. Buiter, W. H. (1977), “Crowding out’ and the effectiveness of fiscal policy”, Journal of public economics, Vol. 7, No. 3, pp. 309-328.
11. Combes, J. L.; Minea, A.; Sow, M. (2017), “Is fiscal policy always counter-(pro-) cyclical? The role of public debt and fiscal rules”, Economic Modelling, Vol. 65, pp. 138-146.
12. Égert, B. (2014), “Fiscal policy reaction to the cycle in the OECD: pro-or counter-cyclical?. Mondes en développement”, Vol. 3, pp. 35-52. doi: 10.1787/18151973.
13. Ilzetzki, E.; Végh, C. A. (2008), “Procyclical fiscal policy in developing countries: Truth or fiction?”, National Bureau of Economic Research, No. w14191.
14. Greenwald, B. C.; Stiglitz, J. E. (1987), “Keynesian, new Keynesian, and new classical economics”, National Bureau of Economic Research. Vol. 39, No. 1. pp. 119-133.
15. Koh, W. C. (2017), “Fiscal Policy in Oil‐exporting Countries: The Roles of Oil Funds and Institutional Quality”, Review of Development Economics, Vol. 21, No. 3, pp. 567-590.
16. Lane, P. R. (2003), “The cyclical behaviour of fiscal policy: evidence from the OECD”, Journal of Public economics, Vol. 87, No. 12, pp. 2661-2675.
17. Long Jr, J. B.; Plosser, C. I. (1983), “Real business cycles”, Journal of political Economy, Vol. 91, No. 1, pp. 39-69.
18. Lütkepohl, H. (2005), New introduction to multiple time series analysis, Springer Science & Business Media.
19. Mehrara, M.; Oskoui, K. N. (2007), “The sources of macroeconomic fluctuations in oil exporting countries: A comparative study”, Economic Modelling, Vol. 24, No. 3, pp. 365-379.
20. Mountford, A.; Uhlig, H. (2009), “What are the effects of fiscal policy shocks?”, Journal of applied econometrics, Vol. 24, No. 6, pp. 960-992.
21. Ramey, G.; Ramey, V. A. (1995), “Cross-country evidence on the link between volatility and growth”, The American Economic Review, pp. 1138-1151.
22. Slimane, S. B.; Tahar, M. B. (2010), “Why is fiscal policy procyclical in MENA countries”, International Journal of Economics and Finance, Vol. 2, No. 5, pp. 44-53.
23. Woertz, E. (2018), “BAHRAIN’S ECONOMY: Oil Prices, Economic Diversification, Saudi Support, and Political Uncertainties”, notes internacionals CIDOB, 189.
24. Woo, J. (2009), “Why do more polarized countries run more procyclical fiscal policy?”, The Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 91, No. 4, pp. 850-870.