Petrol Fiyatlarının İstihdam Üzerindeki Asimetrik Etkileri: Türkiye Örneğinde NARDL Yaklaşımı Bulguları

Yıl 2021, Cilt: 16 Sayı: 2, 381 - 400, 01.08.2021

Erdem Güdenoğlu

https://doi.org/10.17153/oguiibf.885601

Öz

Bu çalışmada uluslararası petrol fiyatlarının istihdam üzerindeki etkileri, gelişmekte olan ve petrol ithalatçısı bir ülke olarak Türkiye örnekleminde araştırılmıştır. Petrol fiyatlarının istihdam üzerindeki potansiyel asimetrik etkilerinin dikkate alındığı çalışmada, petrol kullanımı yoğunluğunun görece yüksek olduğu ve dolayısıyla petrol fiyatlarının etkilerinin daha yoğun hissedilmesinin beklendiği sanayi sektörü istihdamına yoğunlaşılmıştır. NARDL yaklaşımından yararlanılan analizde, 2005 Ocak – 2020 Kasım dönemini kapsayan veriler kullanılarak Türkiye’de petrol fiyatlarının sanayi istihdamı üzerindeki etkilerinin asimetrik olduğu bulgularına ulaşılmıştır. Petrol fiyatlarındaki artışların yanı sıra azalışların da sanayi istihdamını negatif etkilediğine dair kanıtları sunan çalışmada asimetrinin kaynağı olarak ise petrol fiyatlarının belirsizliği kanalı öne çıkarılmıştır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Petrol Fiyatları, İstihdam, Asimetri

Teşekkür

Sayın editöre ve sekretarya çalışanlarına ilgi ve emekleri için şimdiden teşekkür ederim.

The Asymmetric Effects of Oil Prices on Employment: Evidence from NARDL Approach in the Case of Turkey

Öz

In this paper, the effects of international oil prices on employment have been investigated in Turkey as a net oil importer developing country. Considering the potential asymmetric effects of oil prices on employment, the study focuses on the industrial employment, where the intensity of oil use is relatively high, and therefore the effects of oil prices are expected to be felt more intensely. In the analysis, covering the period of January 2005 – November 2020 and utilizing the NARDL approach, it has been found that the effects of oil prices on industrial employment are asymmetric in Turkey. Reaching the findings which suggest the decreases in oil prices as well as increases affect industrial employment negatively, the oil price uncertainty channel has been put forward as the source of asymmetry.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Oil Prices, Employment, Asymmetry

Kaynakça

• Alkhateeb, T. T. Y.; Mahmood, H.; Sultan, Z. A.; Ahmad, N. (2017), “Oil Price and Employment Nexus in Saudi Arabia”, International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Vol. 7, No. 3: 277-281.
• Altay, B.; Topcu, M.; Erdoğan, E. (2013), “Oil Price, Output and Employment in Turkey: Evidence from vector Error Correction Model”, International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Vol. 3, Special Issue: 7-13.
• Bernanke, B. S.; Gertler, M.; Watson, M. (1997), “Systematic Monetary Policy and the Effects of Oil Price Shocks”, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 1997 No. 1: 91-157.
• Brown, S. P. A.; Yücel, M. K.; Thompson, J. (2003), “Business Cycles: The Role of Energy Prices”, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Research Department Working Paper 0304.
• Burbidge, J.; Harrison, A. (1984), “Testing the Effects of Oil-Price Rises Using Vector Autoregressions”, International Economic Review, Vol. 25, No. 2: 459-484.
• Doğrul, H. G.; Soytas, U. (2010), “Relationship between Oil Prices, Interest Rate, and Unemployment: Evidence from an Emerging Market”, Energy Economics, Vol. 32, No. 6: 1523-1528.
• Enders, W.; Lee, J. (2012), “The Flexible Fourier Form and Dickey–Fuller Type Unit Root Tests”, Economic Letters, No. 117: 196-199.
• Erkan, B.; Şentürk, M.; Akbaş, Y. E.; Bayat, T. (2011), “Uluslararası Ham Petrol Fiyatlarındaki Volatilitenin İşsizlik Göstergeleri Üzerindeki Etkisi: Türkiye Örneği Üzerine Ampirik Bulgular”, Gaziantep Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, C. 10, S. 2: 715-730.
• Ferderer, J. P. (1996), “Oil Price Volatility and the Macroeconomy”, Journal of Macroeconomics, Vol. 18, No. 1: 1-26.
• Fousekis, P.; Katrakilidis, C.; Trachanas, E. (2016), “Vertical Price Transmission in the US Beef Sector: Evidence from the Nonlinear ARDL Model”, Economic Modelling, Vol. 52(B): 499-506.
• Gisser, M.; Goodwin, T. H. (1986), “Crude Oil and the Macroeconomy: Tests of Some Popular Notions: Note”, Journal of Money, Vol. 18, No. 1: 95-103.
• Hamilton, J. D. (1983), “Oil and the Macroeconomy since World War II”, Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 91, No. 2: 228-248.
• Hooker, M. A. (1996), “What Happened to the Oil Price-Macroeconomy Relationship?”, Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 38, No. 2: 195-213.
• Kandemir Kocaaslan, O. (2019), “Oil Price Uncertainty and Unemployment”, Energy Economics, Vol. 81(C): 577-583.
• Katrakilidis, C.;Trachanas, E. (2012), “What Drives Housing Price Dynamics in Greece: New Evidence from Asymmetric ARDL Cointegration”, Economic Modelling, Vol. 29, No. 4: 1064-1069.
• Keane, M. P.; Prasad, E. S. (1996), “The Employment and Wage Effects of Oil Price Changes: A Sectoral Analysis”, The Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 78, No. 3: 389-400.
• Lardic, S.; Mignon, V. (2008), “Oil Prices and Economic Activity: An Asymmetric Cointegration Approach”, Energy Economics, Vol. 30, No. 3: 847-855.
• Loungani, P. (1986), “Oil Price Shocks and the Dispersion Hypothesis”, The Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 68, No. 3: 536-539.
• Maghyereh, A. I.; Awartani, B.; Sweidan, O. D. (2019), “Oil Price Uncertainty and Real Output Growth: New Evidence from Selected Oil-Importing Countries in the Middle East”, Empirical Economics. No. 56: 1601-1621.
• Michieka, N. M.; Gearhart, R. (2015), “Oil Price Fluctuations and Employment in Kern County: A Vector Error Correction Approach”, Energy Policy, No. 87: 584-590.
• Mork, K. A. (1989), “Oil and the Macroeconomy when Prices Go Up and Down: An Extension of Hamilton's Results”, Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 97, No. 3: 740-744.
• Mork, K. A. (1994), “Business Cycles and the Oil Market”, The Energy Journal, Vol. 15, Special Issue on the Changing World Petroleum Market: 15-38.
• Mussa, M. (2000), “The Impact of Higher Oil Prices on the Global Economy”, https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/oil/2000/oilrep.PDF, (Erişim: 19.12.2020).
• Nusair, S. A. (2017), “The J-Curve Phenomenon in European Transition Economies: A Nonlinear ARDL Approach”, International Review of Applied Economics, Vol. 31, No. 1: 1-27.
• Ordonez, J.; Monfort, M.; Cuestas, J. C. (2019), “Oil Prices, Unemployment and the Financial Crisis in Oil-Importing Countries: The Case of Spain”, Energy, No. 181: 625-634.
• Papapetrou, E. (2001), “Oil Price Shocks, Stock Market, Economic Activity and Employment in Greece”, Energy Economics, Vol. 23, No. 5: 511-532.
• Pesaran, M. H.; Shin, Y.; Smith, R. J. (2001), “Bound Testing Approaches to the Analysis of Level Relationships”, Journal of Applied Econometrics, No. 16: 289-326.
• Shin, Y.; Yu, B.; Greenwood-Nimmo, M. (2014), “Modelling Asymmetric Cointegration and Dynamic Multipliers in a Nonlinear ARDL Framework. Festschrift in Honor of Peter Schmidt: Econometric Methods and Applications (Eds. W. C. Horrace and R. C. Sickles), Springer: New York: 281–314.
• Tang, W.; Wu, L.; Zhang, ZX. (2010), “Oil Price Shocks and Their Short- and Long-Term Effects on the Chinese Economy”, Energy Economics, No. 32: 3-14. Torul, O.; Alper, C. E. (2010), “Asymmetric Effects of Oil Price on the Manufacturing Sector in Turkey”, Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, Vol. 6, No. 1: Article 4.
• Uri, N. D. (1996), “Changing Crude Oil Price Effects on US Agricultural Employment”, Energy Economics, Vol.18, No. 3: 185-202.
• Yahia, A.; Saleh, A. (2008), “Economic Sanctions, Oil Price Fluctuations and Employment: New Empirical Evidence from Libya”, American Journal of Applied Sciences, Vol. 5, No. 12: 1713-1719.
• Yardımcıoğlu, F.; Beşel, F. (2013), “İşsizlik – Petrol Fiyatları İlişkisi: Yapısal Kırılmalar Altında Türkiye Örneği (1980-2012)”, Turkish Studies, Vol. 8, No. 8: 2197-2211.
• Yılancı, V. (2017), “Petrol Fiyatları ile Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki İlişkinin İncelenmesi: Fourier Yaklaşımı”, Ekonometri ve İstatistik, No. 27: 51-67.
• Zivot, E.; Andrews, D. W. K. (1992), “Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis”, Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Vol. 10, No. 3: 251-270.
• “Main Economic Indicators”, https://stats.oecd.org/viewhtml.aspx?datasetcode=MEI&lang=en, (Erişim: 12.02.2021).
• “Mevsim Etkisinden Arındırılmış Temel İşgücü Göstergeleri” https://data.tuik.gov.tr/Kategori/GetKategori?p=Istihdam,-Issizlik-ve-Ucret-108, (Erişim: 12.02.2021).
• “Spot Prices for Crude Oil and Petroleum Products”, https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pri_spt_s1_d.htm, (Erişim: 11.02.2021).