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Investigation of the Effects of Terrorist Attacks on Oil Prices with Dynamic Common Correlated Effects Approach

Yıl 2021, Cilt 16, Sayı 3, 638 - 650, 01.12.2021
https://doi.org/10.17153/oguiibf.910944

Öz

In this study, the effect of terrorist attacks on oil prices was analyzed by considering oil consumption. In the study conducted with the 2001-2018 period data for 10 oil-exporting countries with the most terrorist attacks, the relationship between the variables was analyzed using the Dynamic Common Correlated Effects estimator. The findings show that the increase in terrorist attacks and oil consumption increases the oil prices. With this study, it is aimed to examine the effect of terrorist attacks, which are considered to be largely external, on energy costs and to contribute to the projections by presenting data to the official authorities on how energy costs will develop in the event of possible terrorist attacks.

Kaynakça

  • Abadie, A.; Gardeazabal, J. (2008), "Terrorism and the world economy", European Economic Review, Vol.52, No.1: 1-27.
  • Adusei, L. A. (2015), "Terrorism, Insurgency, Kidnapping, and Security in Africa's Energy Sector". African Security Review, Vol. 24, No. 3: 332-359.
  • Arin, K. P.; Ciferri, D.; Spagnolo, N. (2008), "The price of terror: The effects of terrorism on stock market returns and volatility", Economics Letters, Vol. 101, No.3: 164-167.
  • Arora, V.; Tanner, M. (2013), "Do oil prices respond to real interest rates?", Energy Economics, Vol. 36: 546-555.
  • Beckmann, J.; Czudaj, R. (2013), "Is there a homogeneous causality pattern between oil prices and currencies of oil importers and exporters?", Energy Economics, Vol.40: 665-678.
  • Bird, G.; Blomberg, S. B.; Hess, G. D. (2008), "International terrorism: Causes, consequences and cures". World Economy, Vol.31, No.2: 255-274.
  • Blattman, C.; Miguel, E. (2010), "Civil War", Journal of Economic literature, Vol.48, No.1: 3-57.
  • BP. (2020), BP Energy Outlook: 2020 Edition: BP.
  • BP. (2021), Statistical Review of World Energy, Retrieved from: https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/energy-economics/statistical-review-of-world-energy.html
  • Breusch, T. S.; Pagan, A. R. (1980), "The Lagrange Multiplier Test and Its Applications to Model Specification in Econometrics", The Review of Economic Studies, Vol.47, No.1: 239-253.
  • Brück, T.; Wickström, B-A. (2004), "The economic consequences of terror: A Brief Survey", HiCN Working Papers, No.03.
  • Chen, A. H.; Siems, T. F. (2004), "The effects of terrorism on global capital markets", European journal of political economy, Vol.20, No.2:349-366.
  • Chudik, A.; Pesaran, M. H. (2015), "Common correlated effects estimation of heterogeneous dynamic panel data models with weakly exogenous regressors", Journal of Econometrics, Vol.188, No.2: 393-420.
  • Coleman, L. (2012), "Explaining crude oil prices using fundamental measures", Energy Policy, Vol. 40: 318-324. Crain, N. V.; Crain, W. M. (2006), "Terrorized economies", Public Choice, Vol. 128, No.1: 317-349.
  • Cunado, J.; De Gracia, F. P. (2005), "Oil prices, economic activity and inflation: evidence for some Asian countries", The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Vol.45, No.1: 65-83.
  • Çınar, M. (2017), "The effects of terrorism on economic growth: Panel data approach", Zbornik radova Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci: časopis za ekonomsku teoriju i praksu/Proceedings of Rijeka Faculty of Economics: Journal of Economics and Business, Vol.35, No.1: 97-121.
  • Darby, M. R. (1982), "The price of oil and world inflation and recession", The American Economic Review, Vol.72, No.4: 738-751.
  • Eltony, M. N.; Al‐Awadi, M. (2001), "Oil price fluctuations and their impact on the macroeconomic variables of Kuwait: a case study using a VAR model", International Journal of Energy Research, Vol.25, No.11: 939-959.
  • Gupta, S.; Clements, B.; Bhattacharya, R.; Chakravarti, S. (2004), "Fiscal consequences of armed conflict and terrorism in low-and middle-income countries", European Journal of Political Economy, Vol.20, No.2: 403-421.
  • Hamilton, J. D. (1983), "Oil and the Macroeconomy since World War II", Journal of Political Economy, Vol.91, No.2: 228-248.
  • Hamilton, J. D. (1996), "This is what happened to the oil price-macroeconomy relationship", Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol.38, No.2: 215-220.
  • Hamilton, J. D. (2003), "What is an oil shock?", Journal of econometrics, Vol.113, No.2: 363-398.
  • IEP. (2019), Global Terrorism Index: Institute For Economics & Peace.
  • IMF. (2021), IMF Primary Comodity Prices, Retrieved from: https://www.imf.org/en/Research/commodity-prices
  • Jin, X. (2017), "Do futures prices help forecast the spot price?", Journal of Futures Markets, Vol.37, No.12: 1205-1225.
  • Lee, C-Y. (2018), "Oil and terrorism: Uncovering the mechanisms", Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol.62, No.5: 903-928.
  • Martina, E.; Rodriguez, E.; Escarela-Perez, R.; Alvarez-Ramirez, J. (2011), "Multiscale entropy analysis of crude oil price dynamics", Energy Economics, Vol.33, No.5: 936-947.
  • Mohamed, H.; Jebli, M. B.; Youssef, S. B. (2019), "Renewable and fossil energy, terrorism, economic growth, and trade: Evidence from France", Renewable energy, Vol. 139: 459-467.
  • Nitsch, V.; Schumacher, D. (2003), Terrorism and trade: DIW Discussion Papers.
  • Noguera-Santaella, J. (2016), "Geopolitics and the Oil Price", Economic Modelling, Vol.52: 301-309.
  • Nyangarika, A.; Mikhaylov, A.; Richter, U. H. (2019), "Oil Price Factors: Forecasting on the Base of Modified Auto-regressive Integrated Moving Average Model", International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Vol.9, No.1: 149-159.
  • Pesaran, M. H. (2006), "Estimation and Inference in Large Heterogeneous Panels With A Multifactor Error Structure", Econometrica, Vol.74, No.4: 967-1012.
  • Pesaran, M. H. (2007), "A Simple Panel Unit Root Test in the Presence of Cross‐Section Dependence", Journal of Applied Econometrics, Vol.22, No.2: 265-312.
  • Pesaran, M. H.; Yamagata, T. (2008), "Testing slope homogeneity in large panels", Journal of econometrics, Vol.142, No.1: 50-93.
  • Phan, D. H. B.; Narayan, P. K.; Gong, Q. (2021), "Terrorist attacks and oil prices: Hypothesis and empirical evidence", International Review of Financial Analysis, Vol.74, 101669.
  • START. (2019), The Global Terrorism Database (GTD), https://www.start.umd.edu/gtd
  • Tatoğlu, F. Y. (2017), Panel Zaman Serileri Analizi: Stata Uygulamalı, İstanbul: Beta Basım Yayım.
  • Tavares, J. (2004), "The open society assesses its enemies: shocks, disasters and terrorist attacks", Journal of monetary economics, Vol.51, No.5: 1039-1070.
  • Troster, V.; Shahbaz, M.; Uddin, G. S. (2018), "Renewable energy, oil prices, and economic activity: A Granger-causality in quantiles analysis", Energy Economics, Vol.70: 440-452.

Terör Saldırılarının Petrol Fiyatları Üzerindeki Etkisinin Dinamik Ortak İlişkili Etkiler Yaklaşımı ile İncelenmesi

Yıl 2021, Cilt 16, Sayı 3, 638 - 650, 01.12.2021
https://doi.org/10.17153/oguiibf.910944

Öz

Bu çalışmada, terörist faaliyetlerin petrol fiyatları üzerindeki etkisi petrol tüketimi de göz önünde bulundurularak incelenmiştir. En çok terör eylemi meydana gelen 10 petrol ihraç eden ülke için 2001 – 2018 dönemi verileri ile yürütülen çalışmada değişkenler arasındaki ilişki Dinamik Ortak İlişkili Etkiler tahmincisi kullanılarak incelenmiştir. Elde edilen bulgular, terör olaylarındaki ve petrol tüketimindeki artışın petrol fiyatlarını artırdığını göstermiştir. Bu çalışma ile büyük ölçüde dışsal olarak kabul edilen terör eylemlerinin enerji maliyetleri üzerindeki etkisini incelemek ve olası terör saldırıları durumunda enerji maliyetlerinin ne yönde gelişeceğini tespit ederek resmi otoritelere oluşturacakları projeksiyonlarda veri sağlamak amaçlanmıştır.

Kaynakça

  • Abadie, A.; Gardeazabal, J. (2008), "Terrorism and the world economy", European Economic Review, Vol.52, No.1: 1-27.
  • Adusei, L. A. (2015), "Terrorism, Insurgency, Kidnapping, and Security in Africa's Energy Sector". African Security Review, Vol. 24, No. 3: 332-359.
  • Arin, K. P.; Ciferri, D.; Spagnolo, N. (2008), "The price of terror: The effects of terrorism on stock market returns and volatility", Economics Letters, Vol. 101, No.3: 164-167.
  • Arora, V.; Tanner, M. (2013), "Do oil prices respond to real interest rates?", Energy Economics, Vol. 36: 546-555.
  • Beckmann, J.; Czudaj, R. (2013), "Is there a homogeneous causality pattern between oil prices and currencies of oil importers and exporters?", Energy Economics, Vol.40: 665-678.
  • Bird, G.; Blomberg, S. B.; Hess, G. D. (2008), "International terrorism: Causes, consequences and cures". World Economy, Vol.31, No.2: 255-274.
  • Blattman, C.; Miguel, E. (2010), "Civil War", Journal of Economic literature, Vol.48, No.1: 3-57.
  • BP. (2020), BP Energy Outlook: 2020 Edition: BP.
  • BP. (2021), Statistical Review of World Energy, Retrieved from: https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/energy-economics/statistical-review-of-world-energy.html
  • Breusch, T. S.; Pagan, A. R. (1980), "The Lagrange Multiplier Test and Its Applications to Model Specification in Econometrics", The Review of Economic Studies, Vol.47, No.1: 239-253.
  • Brück, T.; Wickström, B-A. (2004), "The economic consequences of terror: A Brief Survey", HiCN Working Papers, No.03.
  • Chen, A. H.; Siems, T. F. (2004), "The effects of terrorism on global capital markets", European journal of political economy, Vol.20, No.2:349-366.
  • Chudik, A.; Pesaran, M. H. (2015), "Common correlated effects estimation of heterogeneous dynamic panel data models with weakly exogenous regressors", Journal of Econometrics, Vol.188, No.2: 393-420.
  • Coleman, L. (2012), "Explaining crude oil prices using fundamental measures", Energy Policy, Vol. 40: 318-324. Crain, N. V.; Crain, W. M. (2006), "Terrorized economies", Public Choice, Vol. 128, No.1: 317-349.
  • Cunado, J.; De Gracia, F. P. (2005), "Oil prices, economic activity and inflation: evidence for some Asian countries", The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Vol.45, No.1: 65-83.
  • Çınar, M. (2017), "The effects of terrorism on economic growth: Panel data approach", Zbornik radova Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci: časopis za ekonomsku teoriju i praksu/Proceedings of Rijeka Faculty of Economics: Journal of Economics and Business, Vol.35, No.1: 97-121.
  • Darby, M. R. (1982), "The price of oil and world inflation and recession", The American Economic Review, Vol.72, No.4: 738-751.
  • Eltony, M. N.; Al‐Awadi, M. (2001), "Oil price fluctuations and their impact on the macroeconomic variables of Kuwait: a case study using a VAR model", International Journal of Energy Research, Vol.25, No.11: 939-959.
  • Gupta, S.; Clements, B.; Bhattacharya, R.; Chakravarti, S. (2004), "Fiscal consequences of armed conflict and terrorism in low-and middle-income countries", European Journal of Political Economy, Vol.20, No.2: 403-421.
  • Hamilton, J. D. (1983), "Oil and the Macroeconomy since World War II", Journal of Political Economy, Vol.91, No.2: 228-248.
  • Hamilton, J. D. (1996), "This is what happened to the oil price-macroeconomy relationship", Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol.38, No.2: 215-220.
  • Hamilton, J. D. (2003), "What is an oil shock?", Journal of econometrics, Vol.113, No.2: 363-398.
  • IEP. (2019), Global Terrorism Index: Institute For Economics & Peace.
  • IMF. (2021), IMF Primary Comodity Prices, Retrieved from: https://www.imf.org/en/Research/commodity-prices
  • Jin, X. (2017), "Do futures prices help forecast the spot price?", Journal of Futures Markets, Vol.37, No.12: 1205-1225.
  • Lee, C-Y. (2018), "Oil and terrorism: Uncovering the mechanisms", Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol.62, No.5: 903-928.
  • Martina, E.; Rodriguez, E.; Escarela-Perez, R.; Alvarez-Ramirez, J. (2011), "Multiscale entropy analysis of crude oil price dynamics", Energy Economics, Vol.33, No.5: 936-947.
  • Mohamed, H.; Jebli, M. B.; Youssef, S. B. (2019), "Renewable and fossil energy, terrorism, economic growth, and trade: Evidence from France", Renewable energy, Vol. 139: 459-467.
  • Nitsch, V.; Schumacher, D. (2003), Terrorism and trade: DIW Discussion Papers.
  • Noguera-Santaella, J. (2016), "Geopolitics and the Oil Price", Economic Modelling, Vol.52: 301-309.
  • Nyangarika, A.; Mikhaylov, A.; Richter, U. H. (2019), "Oil Price Factors: Forecasting on the Base of Modified Auto-regressive Integrated Moving Average Model", International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Vol.9, No.1: 149-159.
  • Pesaran, M. H. (2006), "Estimation and Inference in Large Heterogeneous Panels With A Multifactor Error Structure", Econometrica, Vol.74, No.4: 967-1012.
  • Pesaran, M. H. (2007), "A Simple Panel Unit Root Test in the Presence of Cross‐Section Dependence", Journal of Applied Econometrics, Vol.22, No.2: 265-312.
  • Pesaran, M. H.; Yamagata, T. (2008), "Testing slope homogeneity in large panels", Journal of econometrics, Vol.142, No.1: 50-93.
  • Phan, D. H. B.; Narayan, P. K.; Gong, Q. (2021), "Terrorist attacks and oil prices: Hypothesis and empirical evidence", International Review of Financial Analysis, Vol.74, 101669.
  • START. (2019), The Global Terrorism Database (GTD), https://www.start.umd.edu/gtd
  • Tatoğlu, F. Y. (2017), Panel Zaman Serileri Analizi: Stata Uygulamalı, İstanbul: Beta Basım Yayım.
  • Tavares, J. (2004), "The open society assesses its enemies: shocks, disasters and terrorist attacks", Journal of monetary economics, Vol.51, No.5: 1039-1070.
  • Troster, V.; Shahbaz, M.; Uddin, G. S. (2018), "Renewable energy, oil prices, and economic activity: A Granger-causality in quantiles analysis", Energy Economics, Vol.70: 440-452.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil Türkçe
Konular Sosyal
Bölüm Makaleler
Yazarlar

Murat EREN
IĞDIR ÜNİVERSİTESİ, İKTİSADİ VE İDARİ BİLİMLER FAKÜLTESİ, SAĞLIK YÖNETİMİ BÖLÜMÜ
0000-0002-3855-5429
Türkiye


Serkan KÜNÜ
IĞDIR ÜNİVERSİTESİ, İKTİSADİ VE İDARİ BİLİMLER FAKÜLTESİ, İKTİSAT BÖLÜMÜ
0000-0002-8641-5850
Türkiye


Bengü TOSUN (Sorumlu Yazar)
ATATÜRK ÜNİVERSİTESİ, SOSYAL BİLİMLER ENSTİTÜSÜ, İKTİSAT POLİTİKASI (DR)
0000-0002-5969-4612
Türkiye

Yayımlanma Tarihi 1 Aralık 2021
Başvuru Tarihi 7 Nisan 2021
Kabul Tarihi 30 Mayıs 2021
Yayınlandığı Sayı Yıl 2021, Cilt 16, Sayı 3

Kaynak Göster

APA Eren, M. , Künü, S. & Tosun, B. (2021). Terör Saldırılarının Petrol Fiyatları Üzerindeki Etkisinin Dinamik Ortak İlişkili Etkiler Yaklaşımı ile İncelenmesi . Eskişehir Osmangazi Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi , 16 (3) , 638-650 . DOI: 10.17153/oguiibf.910944