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Para Politikasında Konut Kanalının Etkinliği

Yıl 2022, Cilt 17, Sayı 2, 345 - 367, 01.08.2022

Öz

Konut sektöründeki gelişmeler, ekonomik birimlerin beklentilerini yönlendirmekte ve makroekonomik değişkenler üzerinde etkiler yaratarak ekonomik işleyişte önemli rol üstlenmektedir. Çalışmanın amacı, Türkiye ekonomisinde para politikası şoklarının aktarılmasında konut sektörünün rolünü araştırmaktır. Çalışmada, para politikası şokları, kredi arz şokları ve konut fiyat şoklarının rolü öne çıkarılmaktadır. SVAR yaklaşımından yararlanılarak tahmin edilen modelde, 2011Q1-2021Q1 dönemi için Türkiye’de konut kanalının etkin bir işleyişe sahip olduğu ve daraltıcı para politikası şokuna bağlı olarak konut fiyatları ve konut kredi arzı üzerinde negatif ve anlamlı bir etki yarattığı sonucuna varılmıştır. Ayrıca konut fiyat değişimlerinin tüketim ve enflasyon üzerinde önemli etkilerinin tespiti de çalışmanın bulguları arasında yer almaktadır.

Kaynakça

  • Abelson, P.; Joyeux R.; Milunovich, G.; Chung, D. (2005). "Explaining House Prices in Australia: 1970–2003". The Economic Record, Vol.81, No.255:96-103.
  • Abraham, J. M.; Hendershott, H. (1992). "Patterns and Determinants of Metropolitan House Prices, 1977 to 1991". Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, Vol.36, No.36:8-56.
  • Adams, Z.; Füss, R. (2010). "Macroeconomic Determinants of International Housing Markets". Journal of Housing Economics, No.19:38-50.
  • Ando, A.; Modigliani, M. (1963). "The Life Cycle Hypothesis of Saving: Aggregate Implications and Tests". American Economic Review, No.55:55-84.
  • Apergis, N. (2003). "Housing Prices and Macroeconomic Factors: Prospects within the European Monetary Union". International Real Estate Review, Vol.6, No.1;63-74.
  • Baffoe-Bonnie, J. (1998). "The Dynamic Impact of Macroeconomic Aggregates on Housing Prices and Stock of Houses: A National and Regional Analysis". Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Vol.17, No.2:179-1997.
  • Başçi,E.; Ozel, O.; Sarikaya,C. (2008). "The Monetary Transmission Mechanism in Turkey: New Developments". B. f. Settlements içinde, Transmission Mechanisms for monetary policy in emerging market economies (s. 475-499). Basel: Bank for International Settlements, vol.35.
  • Bayır, M. (2020). "Konut Fiyatlarının Parasal Aktarım Mekanizmasındaki Rolü". Sosyoekonomi, Vol. 28, No.45:63-86.
  • Bjornland, H.C.; Jacobsen, D.H. (2010). "The Role of House Prices in the Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanism in Small Open Economies". Journal of Financial Stability, , No.6:218-229.
  • Calza, A.; Monacelli, T.; Stracca, L. (2013). "Housing Finance and Monetary Policy". Journal of the European Economic Association, Vol.11, 101-122.
  • Cambazoğlu, B. (2010). Parasal Aktarım Mekanizması Kredi Kanalı: Kuram ve Türkiye Örneği. Yüksek Lisans Tezi.
  • Christidou, M.; Konstantidou, P.T.H.; Roumanias,C. (2018). "Heterogeneous Monetary Policy Transmission in The Housing Market". Review of Economic Analysis, No.10: 75-96.
  • Elbourne, A. (2008). "The UK Housing Market and the Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanism: An SVAR Approach". Journal of Housing Economics , No.17:65-87.
  • Erdoğan, S.; Mercan, D.; Gedikli, A. (2018). "An Analysis On The Housing Price Channel: The Case of BRICT". Journal of Economics Library, Vol.5, No.4:358-370.
  • Giuliodori, M. (2002). "Monetary Policy Shocks and the Role of House Prices Across European Countries". Scotland Journal of Political Economy, Vol.54, No.4:519-543.
  • Guler, M. (2012). "Housing Wealth Effects Mechanism and the Monetary Policy Transmission in Turkey", Yayımlanmamış Yüksek Lisans Tezi.
  • Hilbers, P.; Hoffmaister, A.W.; Banerji, A.; Shi, H. (2008). "House Price Developments in Europe: A Comparison". IMF Working Paper, , No.8/211:1-66.
  • Himmelberg, C.; Mayer, C.; Sinai, T. (2005). "Assessing High House Prices: Bubbles, Fundamentals and Misperceptions". Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol.19, No.4:67-92.
  • Hott, C.; Jokipii, T. (2012). "Housing Bubbles and Interest Rates". Working Paper, No.7, Swiss National Bank.
  • Iacoviello M.; Minetti, R. (2003). "Financial Liberalization and the Sensitivity of House Prices to Monetary Policy: Theory and Evidence". The Machester School, Vol 71, No.1:20-34.
  • Iacoviello, M.; Minetti, R. (2008). "The Credit Channel of Monetary Policy: Evidence from The Housing Market". Journal of Macroeconomics, No.30:69-96.
  • Iacoviello, M.; Neri, S. (2010). "Housing Market Spillovers: Evidence From an Estimated DSGE Model". American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, Vol.2, No.2:125-164.
  • Kishor, N.K.; Marfatia, H.A. (2017). "The Dynamic Relationship Between Housing Prices and the Macroeconomy: Evidence from OECD Countries". Journal Real Estate Financial Economics, No.54:237-268.
  • Milcheva, S.; Sebastian, S. (2010). "Housing Channels of Monetary Policy Transmission in European Industrial and Transition Countries". European Real Estate Society, No.159:1-67.
  • Mishkin, F. (1995). "Symposium on the Monetary Transmisssion Mechanism". The Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol.9, No.4:3-10.
  • Mishkin, F. (1996). "The Chanelles of Monetary Transmission: Lesson for Monetary Policy". National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) Working Series, Working Paper No.5464.
  • Mishkin, F. (2007). "Housing and Monetary Transmission Mechanism". NBER Working Paper, National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper, No. 13518.
  • Musso, A.; Neri, S.; Stracca, L. (2011). "Hosuing, Consumption and Monetary Policy: How Different are the US and the Euro Area". Journal of Banking&Finance, No.35:3019-3041.
  • Ncube, M.; Ndou, E. (2011). "Monetary Policy Transmission, House Prices and Consumer Spending in South Africa: An SVAR Approach". African Development Bank Group, Working Paper Series No.133.
  • Nneji, O.; Brooks, C.; Ward, W.R.C. (2013). "House Price Dynamics and their Reaction to Macroeconomic Changes". Economic Modelling 32, No.32:172-178.
  • Palley, T. (2001). "The Stock Market and Investment: Another Look at the Micro-Foundations of q Theory". Cambridge Journal of Economis, No.23:657-667.
  • Rahal, C. (2016). "Housing Markets and Unconventional Monetary Policy". Journal of Housing Economics, No.32:67-80. Sims, C. (1980). "Macroeconomics and Reality". Econometrica, Vol.48, No.1, 1-46.
  • Sims, C. (1980). "Macroeconomics and Reality". Econometrica, Vol.48, No.1, 1-46.
  • Vargas-Silva, C. (2008). "Monetary Policy and the US housing market: A Var Analysis Imposing Sign Restrictions". Journal of Macroeconomics, No.30:977-990.
  • Wadud, I.K.M.M.; Bashar, O.H.M.N.,; Ahmed, H.J. (2012). "Monetary Policy and The Housing Market in Australia". Journal of Policy Modelling, No.34:849-863.
  • Wilhelmsson, M. (2020). "What Role Does The Housing Market Play for The Transmission Mechanism". KTH Royal Institute of Technology, 1-25.
  • Wu, L. ; Bian, Y. (2018). "Housing, Consumption and Monetary Policy: How Different are The First-, Second- and Third-Tier Cities in China?". Applied Economic Letters, Vol 25, NO.15:1107-1111.
  • Wu, L.;Li, M. (2018). "The Monetary Transmission Mechanism: An SVAR Analysis of the Four Municipalities in China". Applied Economics and Finance, Vol.5 , No.1:81-90.
  • Yıldırım, M. O.; İvrendi. M. (2017). "House Prices and the Macroeconomic Environment in Turkey: The Examination of a Dynamic Relationship". Economics Analysis, Volume LXII., No.215:81-110.
  • Yang, Z.;Wu, S.;Shen,Y. (2017). "Monetary Policy, House Prices, and Consumption in China: A National and Regional Study". International Real Estate Review, Vol.20, No.1:23-49.

The Effectiveness of the Housing Channel in Monetary Policy

Yıl 2022, Cilt 17, Sayı 2, 345 - 367, 01.08.2022

Öz

Developments in the housing sector conduct the economic agents' expectations and play an important role in economic functioning by creating effects on macroeconomic variables. The aim of the study is to examine the role of the housing sector in the transmission of monetary policy shocks in the Turkish economy. The study highlights the role of monetary policy, credit supply, and housing price shocks. This study using the SVAR approach states that the housing channel works effectively in Turkey, showing a negative and a significant effect of contractionary monetary policy shock on housing prices and housing loan supply during the period 2011Q1-2021Q1. The detection of the significant effects of housing price changes on consumption and inflation also is among the findings of the study.

Kaynakça

  • Abelson, P.; Joyeux R.; Milunovich, G.; Chung, D. (2005). "Explaining House Prices in Australia: 1970–2003". The Economic Record, Vol.81, No.255:96-103.
  • Abraham, J. M.; Hendershott, H. (1992). "Patterns and Determinants of Metropolitan House Prices, 1977 to 1991". Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, Vol.36, No.36:8-56.
  • Adams, Z.; Füss, R. (2010). "Macroeconomic Determinants of International Housing Markets". Journal of Housing Economics, No.19:38-50.
  • Ando, A.; Modigliani, M. (1963). "The Life Cycle Hypothesis of Saving: Aggregate Implications and Tests". American Economic Review, No.55:55-84.
  • Apergis, N. (2003). "Housing Prices and Macroeconomic Factors: Prospects within the European Monetary Union". International Real Estate Review, Vol.6, No.1;63-74.
  • Baffoe-Bonnie, J. (1998). "The Dynamic Impact of Macroeconomic Aggregates on Housing Prices and Stock of Houses: A National and Regional Analysis". Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Vol.17, No.2:179-1997.
  • Başçi,E.; Ozel, O.; Sarikaya,C. (2008). "The Monetary Transmission Mechanism in Turkey: New Developments". B. f. Settlements içinde, Transmission Mechanisms for monetary policy in emerging market economies (s. 475-499). Basel: Bank for International Settlements, vol.35.
  • Bayır, M. (2020). "Konut Fiyatlarının Parasal Aktarım Mekanizmasındaki Rolü". Sosyoekonomi, Vol. 28, No.45:63-86.
  • Bjornland, H.C.; Jacobsen, D.H. (2010). "The Role of House Prices in the Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanism in Small Open Economies". Journal of Financial Stability, , No.6:218-229.
  • Calza, A.; Monacelli, T.; Stracca, L. (2013). "Housing Finance and Monetary Policy". Journal of the European Economic Association, Vol.11, 101-122.
  • Cambazoğlu, B. (2010). Parasal Aktarım Mekanizması Kredi Kanalı: Kuram ve Türkiye Örneği. Yüksek Lisans Tezi.
  • Christidou, M.; Konstantidou, P.T.H.; Roumanias,C. (2018). "Heterogeneous Monetary Policy Transmission in The Housing Market". Review of Economic Analysis, No.10: 75-96.
  • Elbourne, A. (2008). "The UK Housing Market and the Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanism: An SVAR Approach". Journal of Housing Economics , No.17:65-87.
  • Erdoğan, S.; Mercan, D.; Gedikli, A. (2018). "An Analysis On The Housing Price Channel: The Case of BRICT". Journal of Economics Library, Vol.5, No.4:358-370.
  • Giuliodori, M. (2002). "Monetary Policy Shocks and the Role of House Prices Across European Countries". Scotland Journal of Political Economy, Vol.54, No.4:519-543.
  • Guler, M. (2012). "Housing Wealth Effects Mechanism and the Monetary Policy Transmission in Turkey", Yayımlanmamış Yüksek Lisans Tezi.
  • Hilbers, P.; Hoffmaister, A.W.; Banerji, A.; Shi, H. (2008). "House Price Developments in Europe: A Comparison". IMF Working Paper, , No.8/211:1-66.
  • Himmelberg, C.; Mayer, C.; Sinai, T. (2005). "Assessing High House Prices: Bubbles, Fundamentals and Misperceptions". Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol.19, No.4:67-92.
  • Hott, C.; Jokipii, T. (2012). "Housing Bubbles and Interest Rates". Working Paper, No.7, Swiss National Bank.
  • Iacoviello M.; Minetti, R. (2003). "Financial Liberalization and the Sensitivity of House Prices to Monetary Policy: Theory and Evidence". The Machester School, Vol 71, No.1:20-34.
  • Iacoviello, M.; Minetti, R. (2008). "The Credit Channel of Monetary Policy: Evidence from The Housing Market". Journal of Macroeconomics, No.30:69-96.
  • Iacoviello, M.; Neri, S. (2010). "Housing Market Spillovers: Evidence From an Estimated DSGE Model". American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, Vol.2, No.2:125-164.
  • Kishor, N.K.; Marfatia, H.A. (2017). "The Dynamic Relationship Between Housing Prices and the Macroeconomy: Evidence from OECD Countries". Journal Real Estate Financial Economics, No.54:237-268.
  • Milcheva, S.; Sebastian, S. (2010). "Housing Channels of Monetary Policy Transmission in European Industrial and Transition Countries". European Real Estate Society, No.159:1-67.
  • Mishkin, F. (1995). "Symposium on the Monetary Transmisssion Mechanism". The Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol.9, No.4:3-10.
  • Mishkin, F. (1996). "The Chanelles of Monetary Transmission: Lesson for Monetary Policy". National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) Working Series, Working Paper No.5464.
  • Mishkin, F. (2007). "Housing and Monetary Transmission Mechanism". NBER Working Paper, National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper, No. 13518.
  • Musso, A.; Neri, S.; Stracca, L. (2011). "Hosuing, Consumption and Monetary Policy: How Different are the US and the Euro Area". Journal of Banking&Finance, No.35:3019-3041.
  • Ncube, M.; Ndou, E. (2011). "Monetary Policy Transmission, House Prices and Consumer Spending in South Africa: An SVAR Approach". African Development Bank Group, Working Paper Series No.133.
  • Nneji, O.; Brooks, C.; Ward, W.R.C. (2013). "House Price Dynamics and their Reaction to Macroeconomic Changes". Economic Modelling 32, No.32:172-178.
  • Palley, T. (2001). "The Stock Market and Investment: Another Look at the Micro-Foundations of q Theory". Cambridge Journal of Economis, No.23:657-667.
  • Rahal, C. (2016). "Housing Markets and Unconventional Monetary Policy". Journal of Housing Economics, No.32:67-80. Sims, C. (1980). "Macroeconomics and Reality". Econometrica, Vol.48, No.1, 1-46.
  • Sims, C. (1980). "Macroeconomics and Reality". Econometrica, Vol.48, No.1, 1-46.
  • Vargas-Silva, C. (2008). "Monetary Policy and the US housing market: A Var Analysis Imposing Sign Restrictions". Journal of Macroeconomics, No.30:977-990.
  • Wadud, I.K.M.M.; Bashar, O.H.M.N.,; Ahmed, H.J. (2012). "Monetary Policy and The Housing Market in Australia". Journal of Policy Modelling, No.34:849-863.
  • Wilhelmsson, M. (2020). "What Role Does The Housing Market Play for The Transmission Mechanism". KTH Royal Institute of Technology, 1-25.
  • Wu, L. ; Bian, Y. (2018). "Housing, Consumption and Monetary Policy: How Different are The First-, Second- and Third-Tier Cities in China?". Applied Economic Letters, Vol 25, NO.15:1107-1111.
  • Wu, L.;Li, M. (2018). "The Monetary Transmission Mechanism: An SVAR Analysis of the Four Municipalities in China". Applied Economics and Finance, Vol.5 , No.1:81-90.
  • Yıldırım, M. O.; İvrendi. M. (2017). "House Prices and the Macroeconomic Environment in Turkey: The Examination of a Dynamic Relationship". Economics Analysis, Volume LXII., No.215:81-110.
  • Yang, Z.;Wu, S.;Shen,Y. (2017). "Monetary Policy, House Prices, and Consumption in China: A National and Regional Study". International Real Estate Review, Vol.20, No.1:23-49.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil Türkçe
Konular Sosyal
Bölüm Makaleler
Yazarlar

Muharrem AFŞAR>
ANADOLU UNIVERSITY, FACULTY OF ECONOMICS AND ADMINISTRATIVE SCIENCES
0000-0002-4071-9330
Türkiye


Güntülü Özlem YÜKSEL> (Sorumlu Yazar)
ANADOLU UNIVERSITY, FACULTY OF ECONOMICS AND ADMINISTRATIVE SCIENCES
0000-0002-0341-8555
Türkiye

Yayımlanma Tarihi 1 Ağustos 2022
Başvuru Tarihi 28 Ocak 2022
Kabul Tarihi 26 Şubat 2022
Yayınlandığı Sayı Yıl 2022, Cilt 17, Sayı 2

Kaynak Göster

APA Afşar, M. & Yüksel, G. Ö. (2022). Para Politikasında Konut Kanalının Etkinliği . Eskişehir Osmangazi Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi , 17 (2) , 345-367 . Retrieved from https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/pub/oguiibf/issue/70614/1064471