CONSUMPTION PUZZLE OF RETIREES IN TURKIYE

Abstract

This study investigates whether there is a decline in consumption during retirement in Turkey within the framework of the retirement consumption puzzle. The data were obtained from a total of 4500 surveys conducted between November-December 2021 with individuals representing households (head of household or spouse of the head of household) in the city center of selected provinces (Istanbul, Izmir, Ankara, Bursa, Bursa, Tekirdağ, Adana, Kayseri, Kayseri, Trabzon, Zonguldak, Erzurum, Malatya and Şanlıurfa). Regression discontinuity design was chosen as the econometric model, and the scope of the project was limited to the goods groups of food, clothing, health, housing and energy (electricity, natural gas, fuel, gasoline group), which have the largest share in the consumption pattern of retirement. In Turkey, there is a downward discontinuity in food, clothing, health, housing and energy expenditures in the 5-year period after the household head retires compared to the 5-year period before the household head retires. When the head of the household retires, the household's food, clothing and health expenditures decrease, with the most significant decrease in clothing expenditures with 52.8%, followed by out-of-pocket health expenditures with 49.2%. One of the important findings of the research is that energy expenditures increase by 49.1%, while housing expenditures increase by 48.9% when the household head retires. The main reason for the decrease in food, clothing and health expenditures and the increase in energy and housing expenditures in Turkey is that retirees experience large income losses during retirement. This study reveals that there is a consumption puzzle in retirement in Turkey and the main reason for the consumption puzzle is low income.

Keywords

• Consumption puzzle
• retirement
• regression discontunity
• Turkiye

Türkiye'de Emeklilerin Tüketim Bilmecesi

Öz

Bu araştırmada Türkiye’de emeklilik döneminde tüketimde bir düşüşün olup olmadığı emeklilik tüketim bilmecesi çerçevesinde araştırılmıştır. Araştırmanın verileri Türkiye genelini temsil etmek üzere seçilen illerin (İstanbul, İzmir, Ankara, Bursa, Tekirdağ, Adana, Kayseri, Trabzon, Zonguldak, Erzurum, Malatya ve Şanlıurfa) kent merkezinde hanehalkını temsil eden bireylerle (hanehalkı reisi veya hanehalkı reisinin eşi) Kasım-Aralık 2021 tarihleri arasında yapılan toplam 4500 anketten sağlanmıştır. Ekonometrik model olarak Regresyon Süreksizliği tasarımı seçilmiş, emeklilerin tüketim kalıbı içinde en büyük paya sahip gıda, giyim, sağlık, konut ve enerji harcama türleri ile projenin kapsamı sınırlandırılmıştır. Türkiye’de hanehalkı reisinin emekliliği hak etmesinden sonraki beş yıllık dönemde gıda, giyim, sağlık, konut ve enerji harcamalarında hanehalkı reisinin emekliliği hak etmesinden önceki beş yıllık döneme göre aşağı doğru bir süreksizliğin olduğu belirlenmiştir. Hanehalkı reisinin emekli olması durumunda hanenin gıda, giyim, sağlık harcamalarının azaldığı, en önemli azalışın %52.8 ile giyim harcamasında olduğu ve giyim harcamasını %49.2 ile cepten yapılan sağlık harcamasının takip ettiği belirlenmiştir. Hanehalkı reisinin emekli olması ile birlikte enerji harcamasının %49.1, konut harcamasının ise %48.9 artması araştırmanın önemli bulgularındandır. Türkiye’de emeklilikte gıda, giyim, sağlık harcamalarındaki azalışın, enerji ve konut harcamalarındaki artışın temel nedeni, emeklilik döneminde emeklilerin gelir kayıplarının büyük olmasıdır. Bu araştırmada, Türkiye’de emeklilikte tüketim bilmecesinin olduğu ve tüketim bilmecesinin ana nedeninin düşük gelir olduğu belirlenmiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Tüketim bilmecesi
• emeklilik
• regresyon süreksizliği
• Türkiye

Kaynakça

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