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Reverse Engineering Approach in DCF Model: BIST Application

Sayı: 21 3 Ekim 2026
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Reverse Engineering Approach in DCF Model: BIST Application

Öz

Company valuation involves many approaches, but the prevailing method is discounted cash flow. The aim of this study was defined as testing the validity of the discounted cash flow method for the Turkish stock market, as well as examining the predictability of the Turkish economy, investors' long-term investment strategies, and how companies manage expectations. The discounted cash flow model was applied in reverse through reverse engineering, and the resulting theoretical value was compared with the value priced on the stock exchange during that period. The study period was selected as 2013-2019, the pre-pandemic years characterized by high predictability and limited market shocks. Realized cash flows for 202 companies from 34 different sectors listed on Borsa Istanbul between 2013 and 2019 were obtained from the Finnet data provider. The results indicate that the discounted cash flow approach is not valid for many companies on the Turkish stock market. This can be interpreted as investors engaging in short-term rather than long-term investment based on expectations, but it can also be interpreted as companies failing to properly manage expectations, forecasts being modeled incorrectly due to insufficient data sharing with the market, and investors failing to develop a clear understanding of comprehensible business models. However, the discounted cash flow method appears to be applicable in pricing for companies with strong corporate structures that invest in expectation management. The study concludes that Turkish companies need to invest significantly in expectation management in order to attract long-term investors.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Company Valuation, Discounted Cash Flow, Capital Markets

Proje Numarası

3

Kaynakça

  1. Aydın, Y. (2012). Firma değerleme yöntemleri. Kırklareli Üniversitesi İ.İ.B.F. Dergisi, 1(1), 87-110.
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  3. Birgili, E., & Düzer, M. (2010). Finansal analizde kullanılan oranlar ve firma değeri ilişkisi: İMKB’de bir uygulama. Muhasebe ve Finansman Dergisi, 46, 74-83.
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  7. Elmas, B., Yılmaz, H., & Yalçın, S. (2017). Firma değerlemesinde indirgenmiş nakit akımları yönteminin kullanımı: Bist bilişim endeksinde yer alan firmalar üzerinde bir uygulama. Atatürk Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 31(5), 1221-1238.
  8. Ercan, M .K., Öztürk, M. B. & Demirgüneş, K. (2003). Değere dayalı yönetim ve entelektüel sermaye. Ankara: Gazi Kitabevi.
  9. Ertuğrul, M. (2008). Değer-fiyat ayrımı ve işletme değeri: kuramsal bir bakış. Eskişehir Osmangazi Üniversitesi İ.İ.B.F., (3), 143-154.
  10. Genç, A., & Sarıtaş, H. (2021). Firm valuation: an application on Borsa Istanbul with discounted cash flow and relative valuation approaches. Gazi İktisat ve İşletme Dergisi, 7(3), 237-256.

Kaynak Göster

APA
Arslan, H., & Kayhan, T. (2026). Reverse Engineering Approach in DCF Model: BIST Application. Ömer Halisdemir Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 21, 1-23. https://doi.org/10.25287/ohuiibf.1709072
AMA
1.Arslan H, Kayhan T. Reverse Engineering Approach in DCF Model: BIST Application. ÖHÜİİBFD. 2026;(21):1-23. doi:10.25287/ohuiibf.1709072
Chicago
Arslan, Halil, ve Temur Kayhan. 2026. “Reverse Engineering Approach in DCF Model: BIST Application”. Ömer Halisdemir Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, sy 21: 1-23. https://doi.org/10.25287/ohuiibf.1709072.
EndNote
Arslan H, Kayhan T (01 Ekim 2026) Reverse Engineering Approach in DCF Model: BIST Application. Ömer Halisdemir Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi 21 1–23.
IEEE
[1]H. Arslan ve T. Kayhan, “Reverse Engineering Approach in DCF Model: BIST Application”, ÖHÜİİBFD, sy 21, ss. 1–23, Eki. 2026, doi: 10.25287/ohuiibf.1709072.
ISNAD
Arslan, Halil - Kayhan, Temur. “Reverse Engineering Approach in DCF Model: BIST Application”. Ömer Halisdemir Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi. 21 (01 Ekim 2026): 1-23. https://doi.org/10.25287/ohuiibf.1709072.
JAMA
1.Arslan H, Kayhan T. Reverse Engineering Approach in DCF Model: BIST Application. ÖHÜİİBFD. 2026;:1–23.
MLA
Arslan, Halil, ve Temur Kayhan. “Reverse Engineering Approach in DCF Model: BIST Application”. Ömer Halisdemir Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, sy 21, Ekim 2026, ss. 1-23, doi:10.25287/ohuiibf.1709072.
Vancouver
1.Halil Arslan, Temur Kayhan. Reverse Engineering Approach in DCF Model: BIST Application. ÖHÜİİBFD. 01 Ekim 2026;(21):1-23. doi:10.25287/ohuiibf.1709072