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Inverted Sentiment Dynamics and Mispricing: A Tier-Based Analysis of the Small-Firm Anomaly in BIST Dividend Indices

Sayı: 21 14 Temmuz 2026
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Inverted Sentiment Dynamics and Mispricing: A Tier-Based Analysis of the Small-Firm Anomaly in BIST Dividend Indices

Öz

This study investigates mispricing within the framework of investor sentiment theory, employing Borsa Istanbul (BIST) Dividend Index membership as a proxy for the small-firm anomaly in the Turkish equity market. Using a 2018–2024 estimation window for Dividend Discount Model parameters, intrinsic values were calculated for 45 firms in 2024. The research evaluates the decoupling of market prices from fundamental values through a dual-stage nonparametric approach: Sign and Wilcoxon tests were used to assess overall sample mispricing, followed by the Mann-Whitney U test to identify structural differences across index tiers. The results indicate that while the BIST Dividend 25 constituents showed no statistically significant deviation from their intrinsic values, the non-parametric tests confirmed systemic overpricing within the broader index. These findings reveal a sentiment paradox: despite a persistently low-sentiment environment, with the Consumer Confidence Index below the neutral threshold, widespread overvaluation prevailed, contrary to theory, with only 33.1% of firms found to be undervalued. This suggests that in emerging markets like Türkiye, characterized by systemic shocks, the prestige gap between indices triggers a sentiment-driven anomaly. Retail investors, seeking inflationary hedges, push the prices of smaller firms above fundamental anchors, thereby inverting the conventional sentiment-valuation link. By demonstrating that mispricing diverges significantly across index tiers and by uncovering an inverted sentiment regime, this study contributes to the behavioral finance literature and provides a practical basis for evaluating stock valuations during periods of polycrises.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Investor Sentiment, Small-Firm Anomaly, Dividend Discount Model, Mann-Whitney U Test, Borsa Istanbul (BIST)

Destekleyen Kurum

T.C. ADANA ALPARSLAN TURKEŞ SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY UNIVERSITY; DEPARTMENT OF SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH PROJECTS #21303014.

Proje Numarası

21303014

Etik Beyan

At every stage of this research, all the rules specified in the “Directive on Scientific Research and Publication Ethics of Higher Education Institutions” were followed. None of the actions specified under the heading “Actions Contrary to Scientific Research and Publication Ethics” of the Directive have been carried out. In the writing process of this study, citations were made in accordance with ethical rules and bibliography was created. The study was subjected to plagiarism check.

Kaynakça

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  3. Akbas, F., Armstrong, W. J., Sorescu, S., & Subrahmanyam, A. (2015). Smart money, dumb money, and capital market anomalies. Journal of Financial Economics, 118(2), 355-382.
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  5. Baker, M., & Wurgler, J. (2006). Investor sentiment and the cross‐section of stock returns. The Journal of Finance, 61(4), 1645-1680.
  6. Baker, M., & Wurgler, J. (2007). Investor sentiment in the stock market. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 21(2), 129-151.
  7. Bali, T. G., Cakici, N., & Whitelaw, R. F. (2011). Maxing out: Stocks as lotteries and the cross-section of expected returns. Journal of Financial Economics, 99(2), 427-446.
  8. Banking Regulation & Supervision Agency (BDDK). (2024). Main indicators of the Turkish banking sector. Retrieved April 15, 2026, from https://www.bddk.org.tr/BultenAylik.
  9. Bansal, R., & Yaron, A. (2004). Risks for the long run: A potential resolution of asset pricing puzzles. The Journal of Finance, 59(4), 1481-1509.
  10. Banz, R. W. (1981). The relationship between return and market value of common stocks. Journal of Financial Economics, 9(1), 3-18.

Kaynak Göster

APA
Türkmen Müldür, G., & Parlak, E. (2026). Inverted Sentiment Dynamics and Mispricing: A Tier-Based Analysis of the Small-Firm Anomaly in BIST Dividend Indices. Ömer Halisdemir Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 21, 1-23. https://doi.org/10.25287/ohuiibf.1815575
AMA
1.Türkmen Müldür G, Parlak E. Inverted Sentiment Dynamics and Mispricing: A Tier-Based Analysis of the Small-Firm Anomaly in BIST Dividend Indices. ÖHÜİİBFD. 2026;(21):1-23. doi:10.25287/ohuiibf.1815575
Chicago
Türkmen Müldür, Gözde, ve Ezgi Parlak. 2026. “Inverted Sentiment Dynamics and Mispricing: A Tier-Based Analysis of the Small-Firm Anomaly in BIST Dividend Indices”. Ömer Halisdemir Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, sy 21: 1-23. https://doi.org/10.25287/ohuiibf.1815575.
EndNote
Türkmen Müldür G, Parlak E (01 Temmuz 2026) Inverted Sentiment Dynamics and Mispricing: A Tier-Based Analysis of the Small-Firm Anomaly in BIST Dividend Indices. Ömer Halisdemir Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi 21 1–23.
IEEE
[1]G. Türkmen Müldür ve E. Parlak, “Inverted Sentiment Dynamics and Mispricing: A Tier-Based Analysis of the Small-Firm Anomaly in BIST Dividend Indices”, ÖHÜİİBFD, sy 21, ss. 1–23, Tem. 2026, doi: 10.25287/ohuiibf.1815575.
ISNAD
Türkmen Müldür, Gözde - Parlak, Ezgi. “Inverted Sentiment Dynamics and Mispricing: A Tier-Based Analysis of the Small-Firm Anomaly in BIST Dividend Indices”. Ömer Halisdemir Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi. 21 (01 Temmuz 2026): 1-23. https://doi.org/10.25287/ohuiibf.1815575.
JAMA
1.Türkmen Müldür G, Parlak E. Inverted Sentiment Dynamics and Mispricing: A Tier-Based Analysis of the Small-Firm Anomaly in BIST Dividend Indices. ÖHÜİİBFD. 2026;:1–23.
MLA
Türkmen Müldür, Gözde, ve Ezgi Parlak. “Inverted Sentiment Dynamics and Mispricing: A Tier-Based Analysis of the Small-Firm Anomaly in BIST Dividend Indices”. Ömer Halisdemir Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, sy 21, Temmuz 2026, ss. 1-23, doi:10.25287/ohuiibf.1815575.
Vancouver
1.Gözde Türkmen Müldür, Ezgi Parlak. Inverted Sentiment Dynamics and Mispricing: A Tier-Based Analysis of the Small-Firm Anomaly in BIST Dividend Indices. ÖHÜİİBFD. 01 Temmuz 2026;(21):1-23. doi:10.25287/ohuiibf.1815575