Türkiye’de hanehalkı sigara tüketiminin belirleyicileri

Öz

Bu çalışmada, Türkiye’de yerleşik hanehalklarının sigara tüketimini etkileyen sosyo-ekonomik ve demografik faktörlerin 2014 TÜİK Hanehalkı Bütçe Anketi (HBA) verileri üzerinden Çift Eşik ve Tobit yöntemleri yardımıyla belirlenmesi amaçlanmıştır. Sigara tüketimi üzerinde etkisi olduğu düşünülen hanehalkı reisine ait demografik değişkenlerden eğitim seviyesi, medeni durum, cinsiyet ve yaş ile hanehalkı büyüklüğü çalışmada kullanılan sosyo-demografik değişkenler olarak belirlenmiştir. Ekonomik değişken olarak ise hanenin bir yıl içinde elde ettiği toplam kullanılabilir gelir seviyesi kullanılmıştır. Kurulan modele ait katsayı tahminleri, katılım ve tüketim kararlarının farklı olduğunu varsayan Çift Eşik tahmin yöntemi ile bu kararları tek bir karar olarak ele alan Tobit tahmin yöntemleri yardımıyla elde edilmiştir. Çalışmadan elde edilen en önemli sonuç sigara tüketim ile katılım kararının farklı olduğu ve bu kararların sigara tüketimi üzerinde farklı etkilere sahip olduğudur. Analiz sonucunda hanehalkına ait demografik ve ekonomik değişkenlerin sigara katılımı üzerindeki etkisi düşük kalırken sigara tüketimi üzerinde önemli etkilere sahip olduğu görülmüştür. Bu durum özellikle katılım ve tüketim kararının ayrı olarak dikkate alınması neticesinde sigara tüketiminin etkilerinin daha detaylı olarak ortaya konulmasını sağlamıştır. Tahmin edilen katsayılar sigara tüketimini azaltıcı yönde en yüksek marjinal etkiye sahip olan sosyo-ekonomik değişkenlerin olan hane büyüklüğü ve eğitim seviyesi olduğu sonucuna ulaşılmıştır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Çift Eşik Modeli
• Tobit Modeli
• Sigara Tüketimi

Detarminants of household cigarette consumption in Turkey

Abstract

In this study it is aimed to determine the socio-economic and demographic factors affecting cigarette consumption of resident households in Turkey using both Double-Hurdle and Tobit methods on TurkStat Household Budget Survey data for the year of 2014. In the model, education level, marital status, gender, age and household size, which are considered to have an impact on cigarette consumption, are determined as the socio-demographic variables. As an economic variable, the yearly total available income level of the household is used. The coefficient estimates for the model are obtained using the both Double-Hurdle estimation method, which assumes that the participation and consumption decisions are different from each other, and the Tobit estimation method, which consider these decisions as a single decision. The most important result obtained from the study is that cigarette consumption and participation decision are different and also these decisions have different effects on cigarette consumption. It is also observed that the demographic and economic variables of households have a low impact on cigarette consumption while having a low impact on cigarette participation decision. This result indicates that the effects of cigarette consumption are obtained in more detail by considering the participation and consumption decision separately. Finally, it is concluded that the socio-economic variables which have the highest marginal effect in reducing cigarette consumption are household size and education level.

Keywords

• Cigarette Consumption
• Double Hurdle
• Tobit

Kaynakça

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