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Determinants of the ideal and actual number of children among married women: Evidence from a poisson regression model

Cilt: 23 Sayı: 2026 3 Ekim 2026
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Determinants of the ideal and actual number of children among married women: Evidence from a poisson regression model

Öz

This study investigates the determinants of fertility levels and preferences among married women aged 15-49 in Türkiye, based on socioeconomic, demographic, and certain subjective assessments. For this purpose, a questionnaire was administered to 439 married women, and the determinants of the actual number of children and the ideal number of children were examined using a Poisson regression model. In all the models constructed within the scope of the study, the association between the ideal number of children and the actual number of children was found to be positive and statistically significant. According to the findings, higher educational attainment is associated with a lower actual number of children, while household income is associated with lower actual and ideal numbers of children; occupational concern and the perception of uncertainty regarding the future are negatively associated with the ideal number of children, whereas the associations of family and spousal expectations with the actual number of children were not statistically significant. In addition, it was found spousal expectation is associated with women’s preferences regarding the ideal number of children, whereas no statistically significant association was found with the actual number of children. Chronic illness status is also significant in all models, and this result is important because it demonstrates a negative association between chronic health problems and the actual number of children. Another notable result of the study is the significant association between household income and the actual number of children.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Fertility preferences, ideal number of children, poisson regression analysis

Kaynakça

  1. Abbasoğlu Özgören, A., & Türkyılmaz, A. S. (2023). Türkiye'de değişen doğurganlık tercihleri: Pariteye göre analizler. Sosyal Politika Çalışmaları Dergisi, 23(59), 321–355. https://doi.org/10.21560/spcd.vi.1247658
  2. Akeju, K., Owoeye, T., Ayeni, R., & Jegede, L. (2021). Variations in desired fertility preferences among young and older women in Nigeria: Evidence from Demographic Health Survey 2018. The Open Public Health Journal, 14, 84–93. https://doi.org/10.2174/1874944502114010084
  3. Ahinkorah, B. O., Seidu, A.-A., Armah-Ansah, E. K., Ameyaw, E. K., Budu, E., & Yaya, S. (2021). Socio-economic and demographic factors associated with fertility preferences among women of reproductive age in Ghana: Evidence from the 2014 Demographic and Health Survey. Reproductive Health, 18, 2. https://doi.org/10.1186/s12978-020-01057-9
  4. Aydemir, E. I., & Sarıçoban, S. (2023). Türkiye'de yaşayan 15–49 yaş arası kadınların doğurganlık ve aile planlaması tercihleri. Journal of Health Sciences Institute, 8(2), 124–129.
  5. Beaujouan, É., & Berghammer, C. (2019). The gap between lifetime fertility intentions and completed fertility in Europe and the United States: A cohort approach. Population Research and Policy Review, 38(4), 507–535. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11113-019-09516-3
  6. Becker, G. S. (1960). An economic analysis of fertility. In Universities-National Bureau Committee for Economic Research (Ed.), Demographic and economic change in developed countries (pp. 209–240). Columbia University Press.
  7. Boateng, D., Oppong, F. B., Senkyire, E. K., & Logo, D. D. (2023). Socioeconomic factors associated with the number of children ever born by married Ghanaian females: A cross-sectional analysis. BMJ Open, 13(2), e067348. https://doi.org/10.1136/bmjopen-2022-067348
  8. Buran, G., & Çankaya, S. (2023). Çocuk sahibi olmayı planlayan kadınların doğurganlık niyetleri, doğum ve COVID-19 korkuları arasındaki ilişki. Balıkesir Sağlık Bilimleri Dergisi, 12(2), 372–379. https://doi.org/10.53424/balikesirsbd.1069474
  9. Cameron, A. C., & Trivedi, P. K. (2013). Regression analysis of count data (2nd ed.). Cambridge University Press. Easterlin, R. A. (1975). An economic framework for fertility analysis. Studies in Family Planning, 6(3), 54–63.
  10. Fang, J., & Liu, L. (2025). The influence of the value of children on the fertility intentions of people of childbearing age in China. Frontiers in Sociology, 10, 1686244. https://doi.org/10.3389/fsoc.2025.1686244

Kaynak Göster

APA
Şahin Kutlu, Ş., Kutlu, M., Sumer Adin, S., & Mola, H. (2026). Determinants of the ideal and actual number of children among married women: Evidence from a poisson regression model. OPUS Journal of Society Research, 23(2026), 1-16. https://doi.org/10.26466/opusjsr.1975468
AMA
1.Şahin Kutlu Ş, Kutlu M, Sumer Adin S, Mola H. Determinants of the ideal and actual number of children among married women: Evidence from a poisson regression model. OPUS TAD. 2026;23(2026):1-16. doi:10.26466/opusjsr.1975468
Chicago
Şahin Kutlu, Şeyma, Muhammet Kutlu, Serpil Sumer Adin, ve Hilal Mola. 2026. “Determinants of the ideal and actual number of children among married women: Evidence from a poisson regression model”. OPUS Journal of Society Research 23 (2026): 1-16. https://doi.org/10.26466/opusjsr.1975468.
EndNote
Şahin Kutlu Ş, Kutlu M, Sumer Adin S, Mola H (01 Ekim 2026) Determinants of the ideal and actual number of children among married women: Evidence from a poisson regression model. OPUS Journal of Society Research 23 2026 1–16.
IEEE
[1]Ş. Şahin Kutlu, M. Kutlu, S. Sumer Adin, ve H. Mola, “Determinants of the ideal and actual number of children among married women: Evidence from a poisson regression model”, OPUS TAD, c. 23, sy 2026, ss. 1–16, Eki. 2026, doi: 10.26466/opusjsr.1975468.
ISNAD
Şahin Kutlu, Şeyma - Kutlu, Muhammet - Sumer Adin, Serpil - Mola, Hilal. “Determinants of the ideal and actual number of children among married women: Evidence from a poisson regression model”. OPUS Journal of Society Research 23/2026 (01 Ekim 2026): 1-16. https://doi.org/10.26466/opusjsr.1975468.
JAMA
1.Şahin Kutlu Ş, Kutlu M, Sumer Adin S, Mola H. Determinants of the ideal and actual number of children among married women: Evidence from a poisson regression model. OPUS TAD. 2026;23:1–16.
MLA
Şahin Kutlu, Şeyma, vd. “Determinants of the ideal and actual number of children among married women: Evidence from a poisson regression model”. OPUS Journal of Society Research, c. 23, sy 2026, Ekim 2026, ss. 1-16, doi:10.26466/opusjsr.1975468.
Vancouver
1.Şeyma Şahin Kutlu, Muhammet Kutlu, Serpil Sumer Adin, Hilal Mola. Determinants of the ideal and actual number of children among married women: Evidence from a poisson regression model. OPUS TAD. 01 Ekim 2026;23(2026):1-16. doi:10.26466/opusjsr.1975468