Araştırma Makalesi

Market-based financial literacy under macro-financial and political risk conditions: A rolling ARX–PCA proxy index for the BIST 100

Cilt: 23 Sayı: 2026 21 Eylül 2026
PDF İndir
EN TR

Market-based financial literacy under macro-financial and political risk conditions: A rolling ARX–PCA proxy index for the BIST 100

Öz

This study develops a time-varying Market-Based Financial Literacy Proxy Index (MBFLPI) for Borsa İstanbul's BIST 100 index. The term financial literacy is retained in a restricted sense: MBFLPI is an indirect, outcome-based market proxy, not a direct score of investors' knowledge, skills, attitudes or behaviour. Using actual BIST sessions from 1 August 2013 to 30 January 2026, a 252-session rolling ARX relates USD-denominated returns to Türkiye's two-year government bond yield, conservatively lagged industrial production, the five-year sovereign CDS, and the VIX. It derives benchmark macro-financial alignment, low first-order return predictability and model-based residual stability; rolling PCA combines the diagnostics, and the composite is rescaled to 0–100 for ex post presentation. Sensitivity analysis varies the window, aggregation, calibration, return denomination and normalisation. Event movements are descriptive associations, not evidence of causal transmission. Published Türkiye evidence provides an external benchmark: pre-sample S&P and OECD/INFE–Capital Markets Board reports supply historical context, whereas fieldwork-matched TEB–Boğaziçi University and FODER–Visa Türkiye/Ipsos surveys and monthly Capital Markets Board investor statistics yield mixed or null evidence. The comparison does not support convergent validity. MBFLPI therefore remains a complementary market-level proxy rather than a substitute for survey-based financial literacy.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Financial literacy, market-based proxy index, BIST 100, return predictability

Kaynakça

  1. Akben-Selçuk, E., & Altiok-Yilmaz, A. (2014). Financial literacy among Turkish college students: The role of formal education, learning approaches, and parental teaching. Psychological Reports, 115(2), 351–371. https://doi.org/10.2466/31.11.PR0.115c18z3
  2. Atkinson, A., & Messy, F.-A. (2012). Measuring financial literacy: Results of the OECD/International Network on Financial Education (INFE) pilot study (OECD Working Papers on Finance, Insurance and Private Pensions No. 15). OECD Publishing. https://doi.org/10.1787/5k9csfs90fr4-en
  3. Barberis, N., Shleifer, A., & Vishny, R. (1998). A model of investor sentiment. Journal of Financial Economics, 49(3), 307–343. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-405X(98)00027-0
  4. Bikhchandani, S., Hirshleifer, D., & Welch, I. (1992). A theory of fads, fashion, custom, and cultural change as informational cascades. Journal of Political Economy, 100(5), 992–1026. https://doi.org/10.1086/261849
  5. Bongini, P., Iannello, P., Rinaldi, E. E., Zenga, M., & Antonietti, A. (2018). The challenge of assessing financial literacy: Alternative data analysis methods within the Italian context. Empirical Research in Vocational Education and Training, 10(1), Article 12. https://doi.org/10.1186/s40461-018-0073-8
  6. Campbell, J. Y. (2006). Household finance. The Journal of Finance, 61(4), 1553–1604. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.2006.00883.x
  7. Capital Markets Board of Türkiye. (n.d.). Bakiyeli pay senedi yatırımcı sayısı ve yerli/yabancı oranları. Retrieved September 7, 2026, from https://spk.gov.tr/ihrac-verileri/bakiyeli-pay-senedi-yatirimci-sayisi-ve-yerliyabanci-oranlari
  8. Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye. (n.d.). Electronic Data Delivery System (EVDS). Retrieved June 8, 2026, from https://evds3.tcmb.gov.tr/
  9. Chao, Y.-S., & Wu, C.-J. (2017). Principal component-based weighted indices and a framework to evaluate indices: Results from the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey 1996 to 2011. PLOS ONE, 12(9), e0183997. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0183997
  10. De Bondt, W. F. M., & Thaler, R. (1985). Does the stock market overreact? The Journal of Finance, 40(3), 793–805. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.1985.tb05004.x

Kaynak Göster

APA
Kuzu, M., & Kocaoğlu, F. (2026). Market-based financial literacy under macro-financial and political risk conditions: A rolling ARX–PCA proxy index for the BIST 100. OPUS Journal of Society Research, 23(2026), 1-24. https://doi.org/10.26466/opusjsr.2023823
AMA
1.Kuzu M, Kocaoğlu F. Market-based financial literacy under macro-financial and political risk conditions: A rolling ARX–PCA proxy index for the BIST 100. OPUS TAD. 2026;23(2026):1-24. doi:10.26466/opusjsr.2023823
Chicago
Kuzu, Mehmet, ve Fatih Kocaoğlu. 2026. “Market-based financial literacy under macro-financial and political risk conditions: A rolling ARX–PCA proxy index for the BIST 100”. OPUS Journal of Society Research 23 (2026): 1-24. https://doi.org/10.26466/opusjsr.2023823.
EndNote
Kuzu M, Kocaoğlu F (01 Eylül 2026) Market-based financial literacy under macro-financial and political risk conditions: A rolling ARX–PCA proxy index for the BIST 100. OPUS Journal of Society Research 23 2026 1–24.
IEEE
[1]M. Kuzu ve F. Kocaoğlu, “Market-based financial literacy under macro-financial and political risk conditions: A rolling ARX–PCA proxy index for the BIST 100”, OPUS TAD, c. 23, sy 2026, ss. 1–24, Eyl. 2026, doi: 10.26466/opusjsr.2023823.
ISNAD
Kuzu, Mehmet - Kocaoğlu, Fatih. “Market-based financial literacy under macro-financial and political risk conditions: A rolling ARX–PCA proxy index for the BIST 100”. OPUS Journal of Society Research 23/2026 (01 Eylül 2026): 1-24. https://doi.org/10.26466/opusjsr.2023823.
JAMA
1.Kuzu M, Kocaoğlu F. Market-based financial literacy under macro-financial and political risk conditions: A rolling ARX–PCA proxy index for the BIST 100. OPUS TAD. 2026;23:1–24.
MLA
Kuzu, Mehmet, ve Fatih Kocaoğlu. “Market-based financial literacy under macro-financial and political risk conditions: A rolling ARX–PCA proxy index for the BIST 100”. OPUS Journal of Society Research, c. 23, sy 2026, Eylül 2026, ss. 1-24, doi:10.26466/opusjsr.2023823.
Vancouver
1.Mehmet Kuzu, Fatih Kocaoğlu. Market-based financial literacy under macro-financial and political risk conditions: A rolling ARX–PCA proxy index for the BIST 100. OPUS TAD. 01 Eylül 2026;23(2026):1-24. doi:10.26466/opusjsr.2023823