Türkiye için Demografik Mikrosimülasyon Modeli

Yıl 2023, Cilt: 20 Sayı: 54, 446 - 457, 31.07.2023

Barış Dulkadir , Mehmet Ali Eryurt

https://doi.org/10.26466/opusjsr.1294301

Öz

Bu makale, Türkiye için güvenilir nüfus projeksiyonları oluşturmak amacıyla mikrosimülasyon metodolojisini kullanmaktadır. Mikrosimülasyon, yaşam seyri dinamiklerini yakından taklit ettiğinden demografik değişiklikleri tahmin etmek için oldukça uygundur. Çalışma kapsamında, 2018 Türkiye Nüfus Sağlığı Araştırması verilerini kullanarak, harici kalıplara veya modellere dayanmadan özelleştirmeye olanak ve doğruluk sağlayan yeni bir mikro simülasyon yöntemi geliştirilmiştir. Çalışmamız, mikrosimülasyonun demografi için esneklik ve uyarlanabilirlik sağladığını, nüfusun özniteliklerini tahmin etmek ve projeksiyon yapabilmek için diğer araçların sağlayamadığı tutarlı ve anlamlı sonuçları sağladığını savunmaktadır. Sonuç olarak, dinamik simülasyon modeli Türkiye'deki nüfusla ilgili önemli politika kararları için güvenilir bilgi sağlama potansiyeline sahiptir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Doğurganlık, Hanehalkı İşgücü Araştırması, Mikro simülasyon, Türkiye Nüfus ve Sağlık Araştırması, Veri Eşleştirme

Destekleyen Kurum

Yok

Proje Numarası

Yok

Demographic microsimulation model for Türkiye

Öz

This paper focuses on the use of microsimulation methodology to generate reliable population estimations for Türkiye. Microsimulation closely mimics life course dynamics and is therefore well-suited for predicting demographic changes. Using data from the 2018 Türkiye Demographic Health Survey, we developed a new microsimulation method that allows for greater customization and accuracy without relying on external patterns or models. The resulting population simulation includes age, education, marital status, usual residence, and labour force status for each individual until 2030. Our study demonstrates the flexibility and adaptability of microsimulation for demography and argues that it provides a coherent and meaningful way to estimate and project population attributes that other tools cannot provide. Ultimately, the dynamic simulation model has the potential to inform important policy decisions related to the population in Türkiye.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Data Matching, Fertility, Household Labour Force Survey, Microsimulation, Türkiye Demographic and Health Survey

Proje Numarası

Yok

Kaynakça

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