AUTHORITARIAN RESILIENCE AND THE ARAB UPRISING: SYRIA IN COMPARATIVE PERSPECTIVE

Yıl 2015, Cilt: 7 Sayı: 1, 16 - 36, 01.07.2015

Raymond Hınnebusch

Öz

This article examines the roots and tangent of the Syrian Uprising in the light of the literature on authoritarian resilience and upgrading. The roots of the Uprising are located in the vulnerabilities of Syria’s authoritarian populist state-building formula. Its post-populist transition under Bashar al-Asad, although meant to “fix” these vulnerabilities, generated powerful mass grievances; authoritarian upgrading, although meant to compensate for these negative side effects, had also its own costs. The special features of the Syrian Uprising are explained by systematically comparing levels of grievances and opportunity structure for anti-regime mobilization there to the Egyptian and Libyan cases. The distinct tangent of the Syrian Uprising--stalemate and protracted conflict--can, in part, be explained by the Syrian regime’s particular authoritarian upgrading tangent

Anahtar Kelimeler

Syria, Syrian Uprising, authoritarian upgrading, Post-populist authoritarianism, Bashar al-Asad

OTORİTER DİRENÇ VE ARAB BAHARI: KARŞILAŞTIRMALI PERSPEKTİFTE SURİYE

Öz

Bu makale, otoriter direnç ve uyarlama literatürü ışığında Suriye İsyanı’nın kökenlerini ve farklılığını incelemektedir. İsyanın kökenleri, Suriye’nin otoriter popülist devlet-inşa formülünün kırılganlığına uzanmaktadır. Beşar Esad döneminde Suriye’nin post-popülist dönüşümü, söz konusu kırılganlıkların “onarılması” anlamına gelse de, büyük çaplı toplumsal hoşnutsuzluklara neden oldu; “otoriter uyarlama”, tüm bu olumsuz yan etkilerin zararını gidermek anlamına gelse de, aslında kendi maliyetleri olan bir süreç. Suriye İsyanı’nın kendine has özellikleri, Mısır ve Libya örnekleriyle hoşnutsuzluk düzeyleri ve rejim-karşıtı mobilizasyon için fırsat yapıları üzerinden sistematik bir biçimde karşılaştırarak incelemektedir. Suriye İsyanı’nın belirgin farklılığı --çıkmaz ve uzun süreli çatışma-- bir ölçüde Suriye rejiminin otoriter uyarlamanın farklılığıyla açıklanabilir

Anahtar Kelimeler

Suriye, Suriye İsyanı, otoriter uyarlama, post-popülist otoriterlik, Beşar Esad

Kaynakça

• Abbas, Hassan, ‘The Dynamics of the Uprising in Syria,’ Arab Reform Brief, 51, October, 2011.
• Albrecht, H and O Schlumberger, “Waiting fo Godot: Regime Change with- out Democratization in the Middle East,” International Political Sci- ence Review, Vol.25, No.4, 2004, pp., 371-92.
• Ehteshami, Anoushiravan and Emma Murphy, “The Transformation of the Corporatist State in the Middle East,” Third World Quarterly, Vol. 17, No. 4, 1996.
• Glasser, Bradley Louis, Economic Development and Political Reform: The Im- pact of External Capital on the Middle East (Cheltenham, UK: Ed- ward Elgar, 2001).
• Guazzone, Laura and Daniela Pioppi, The Arab State and Neo-liberal Glo- balization: the Restructuring of the State in the Middle East (Reading: Ithaca Press, 2009).
• Haddad , Bassam, “Why Syria is not next—so far,” 9 March 2011, http:// www.jadaliyya.com/pages/index/844/why-syria-is-not-next-.-.-.-so- far_with-arabic-translation
• Heydemann, Steven, Networks of Privilege in the Middle East: the Politics of Economic Reform Revisited (New York: Palgrave: Macmillan, 2004).
• Upgrading Authoritarianism in the Arab World: Analysis Paper No. (Washington DC: The Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution, 2007).
• Hinnebusch, Raymond, “Liberalization without Democratization in ‘Post-populist’ Authoritarian States: Evidence from Syria and Egypt” in Nils Butenschon, Uri Davis and Manuel Hassassian (eds.), Citi- zenship and the State in the Middle East, (Syracuse: Syracuse Univer- sity Press, 2000).
• International Crisis Group, ‘The Syrian People’s Slow Motion Revolution,’ Brussels and Damascus, 6 July 2011.
• Kassem, Maye, Egyptian Politics: The Dynamics of Authoritarian Rule, (Lynne Rienner: 2004).
• King, Stephan, The New Authoritarianism in the Middle East and North Africa (Bloomington: Indiana University Press, 2009).
• Lust-Okar, Ellen, “Divided they rule: The management and manipulation of political opposition”, Comparative Politics, Vol.36, No.2. 2004
• Perthes, Volker, Syria under Bashar al-Asad: Modernisation and the Limits of Change, Adelphi Papers (London: Oxford University Press for IISS, 2004).
• Pripstein-Posusney, Martha, Labor and the State in Egypt: Workers, Unions and Economic Restructuring, (1979).
• Waldner, David, State building and late development in Syria, Turkey, Korea and Taiwan, (Ithaca, N.Y: Cornell University Press, 1999).
• Wieland, Carsten, ‘Syria: a tale of missed opportunity,’ OpenDemocracy, 4 October 2011, http://www.opendemocracy.net/carsten-wieland/ syria-tale-of-missed-opportunity