Development of pavement performance prediction model for bituminous hot mix asphalt on interurban road networks

Abstract

The correct prediction of the deterioration of bituminous hot mix asphalt (HMA), which is a significant substructure investment for roads, is an indispensable element in the correct sorting of the budget allocated for maintenance and repair. This study has developed a pavement performance prediction model for state roads and intercity roads hot mix asphalt (HMA) coated under the responsibility of General Directorate of Highways (KGM) for capable of performance forecast for next year. International roughness index (IRI) were used as a performance indicator of pavements. Pavement condition index (PCI) of the road sections (year of construction of the road known by KGM), using existing pavement distresses data by PAVER system, were obtained. The prediction performance model was developed depending on the age and PCI of the road sections using deterministic regression model technique. Then, mathematical relationship was determined between PCI and IRI on the same road section. The obtained mathematical relationship is integrated into the prediction performance model. A prediction model determines the pavements IRI values for the coming years, based on independent variables of measured IRI value and year's estimated performance, were obtained. The accuracy of the IRI deterioration prediction model was controlled by the data sets not used in the modeling studies.

Keywords

• Flexible pavement,Deterioration model,Performance prediction,PCI,IRI

Şehirlerarası yol ağlarında bitümlü sıcak karışım kaplamalar için üstyapı performans tahmin modeli geliştirilmesi

Öz

Önemli bir altyapı yatırımı olan bitümlü sıcak karışım (BSK) üstyapıların bozulmalarının doğru tahmin edilmesi, bakım ve onarım için ayrılan bütçenin doğru olarak belirlenmesinde vazgeçilmez bir unsurdur. Çalışmada, Karayolları Genel Müdürlüğünün (KGM) sorumluluğunda bulunan devlet yolu ve il yolu statüsündeki BSK kaplamalı yollarda, gelecek yıllara ait performans tahmini yapabilen bir üstyapı performans tahmin modeli geliştirilmiştir. Üstyapıların performans göstergesi olarak uluslararası düzgünsüzlük indeksi (IRI) kullanılmıştır. KGM tarafından yapım yılı bilinen yollarda mevcut üstyapı bozulma bilgileri kullanılarak PAVER sistemi yardımıyla kesimlerin üstyapı durum indeksi (PCI) bilgileri elde edilmiştir. Kesimlerin PCI ve yaşlarına bağlı olarak deterministik regresyon modeli tekniği kullanılarak tahmin modeli oluşturulmuştur. Sonrasında, aynı yol kesimlerinde PCI ve IRI arasındaki matematiksel ilişki ortaya konmuştur. Elde edilen bu matematiksel ilişki oluşturulan gelecek tahmin modeline entegre edilerek, ölçülen IRI değeri ve performansı tahmin edilecek yıl bağımsız değişkenlerine bağlı olarak üstyapıların gelecek yıllara ait IRI değerlerini belirleyen bir tahmin modeli elde edilmiştir. IRI bozulma tahmin modelinin doğruluğu, modelleme çalışmalarında hiçbir şekilde kullanılmayan veri setleri ile kontrol edilmiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Esnek üstyapı,Bozulma modeli,Performans tahmini,PCI,IRI

Kaynakça

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