Akdeniz Bölgesinde kuraklık analizi

Öz

Kuraklık gizlice gelişen bir doğal afettir. Bu çalışmada Standartlaştırılmış Yağış Evapotranspirasyon İndeksi (SPEI) Türkiye’nin Akdeniz Bölgesi’nde ilk kez uygulanmıştır. 8 meteoroloji gözlem istasyonun sıcaklık ve yağış verileri kullanılmıştır. Verilere göre 8 istasyon (Adana, Antalya, Burdur, Hatay/Antakya, Isparta, Kahramanmaraş, Mersin ve Osmaniye) 1970-2018 yılları arasında gözlem yapılmıştır. Her bir istasyon için 1, 3, 6, 9 ve 12 aylık SPEI değerlerinin frekans analizleri hesaplanmıştır. Aylık (1, 3, 6, 9 ve 12 aylık) frekans değerleri arasında kulak ve sulak dönemlerin dağılımlarının karşılaştırılmasının yapılması amaçlanmıştır. Bulunan SPEI değerlerinin kuraklık sınıflarında ne kadar mevcut olduğu ve bu mevcudiyet üzerinden karşılaştırmalar yapılmıştır. Sonuç olarak Akdeniz Bölgesindeki tüm istasyonlarda elde edilen veriler hafif kuraklık ile normale yakınlık arasındadır. Hem normale yakın hem de kurak durumlarda Mersin maximum değerler almıştır. Minimum değerlere bakıldığında ise diğer istasyonlara kıyasla Adana hem sulak hem de kurak durumlarda en az yüzdelik değerlerine sahiptir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Kuraklık,Sıcaklık,Yağış,Standartlaştırılmış yağış evapotranspirasyon indeksi (SPEI)

Drought analysis in Mediterranean Region

Öz

Drought is a natural disaster developing secretly. In this study, Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) has been applied for in Turkey's Mediterranean Region. Temperature and precipitation data were used for 8 meteorological observation stations. According to the data, 8 stations (Adana, Antalya, Burdur, Hatay/Antakya, Isparta, Kahramanmaras, Mersin and Osmaniye) were observed between 1970-2018. Frequency analyzes of SPEI values of 1, 3, 6, 9 and 12 months were calculated for each station. Monthly (1, 3, 6, 9 and 12 months) frequency values between the distribution of ear and wetlands is intended to make a comparison. Comparisons were made on how long the SPEI values were found in drought classes and on this availability. As a result, the data obtained from all stations in the Mediterranean region are between mild dry and near to normal. Mersin has the maximum value both in near to normal and dry conditions. When the minimum values are considered, Adana has the least percentage values in both wetness and dryness conditions compared to other stations.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Drought,Temperature,Precipitation,Standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI)

Kaynakça

1. Kabat P, Schulze RE, Hellmuth ME, Veraart JA. Coping with Impacts of Climate Variability and Climate Change in Water Management: A Scoping Paper. International Secretariat of the Dialogue on Water and Climate, Wageningen, Netherlands, 2003.
2. Trenberth KE, Dai A, Van der Schrier G, Jones PD, Barichivich J, Briffa KR and Sheffield J. “Global warming and changes in drought”. Natural Climate Change, 4(1), 17-22, 2014.
3. Potop V, Možný M, Soukup J. “Drought evolution at various time scales in the lowland regions and their impact on vegetable crops in the Czech Republic”. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 156, 121-133, 2012.
4. Keyantash J, Dracup JA. “The quantification of drought: An evaluation of drought indices”. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 83, 1167-1180, 2002.
5. Wilhite DA, Glantz MH. “Understanding: the drought phenomenon: The role of definitions”. Water International, 10(3), 111-120, 1985.
6. Mouatadid S, Raj N, Deo RC, Adamowski JF. “Input selection and data-driven model performance optimization to predict the standardized precipitation and evaporation index in a drought-prone region”. Atmospheric Research, 212, 130-149, 2018.
7. Dai A. “Drought under global warming: a review”. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, 2(1), 45-65, 2011.
8. Potop V, Možný M, Boroneanţ C, Štěpánek P and Skalák P. “Observed spatiotemporal characteristics of drought on various time scales over the Czech Republic”. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 115(3-4), 563-581, 2014.

9. Wilhite DA, Sivakumar MVK, Wood DA. “Warning systems for drought preparedness and drought management”. World Meteorological Organization, Lisbon, Portugal, 5-7 September 2000.
10. Tannehill IR. Drought its Causes and Effects. New Jersey, USA, Princeton University, 1947.
11. Alam NM, Adhikary PP, Jana C, Kaushal R, Sharma NK, Avasthe RK, Ranjan R, Mishra PK. “Application of Markov model and standardized precipitation index for analysis of droughts in Bundelkhand region of India”. Journal of Tree Sciences, 31(1&2), 46-53, 2012.
12. Alam NM, Mishra PK, Jana C, Adhikary PP. “Stochastic model for drought forecasting for Bundelkhand region in Central India”. Indian Journal of Agricultural Sciences, 84(2), 79-84, 2014.
13. Alam NM, Ranjan R, Adhikary PP, Kumar A, Jana C, Panwar S, Mishra PK, Sharma NK. “Statistical modeling of weekly rainfall data for crop planning in Bundelkhand region of Central India”. India Section B: Biological Sciences, 44(3), 336-342, 2016.
14. Alam NM, Sharma GC, Moreira E, Jana C, Mishra PK, Sharma NK, Mandal D. “Evaluation of drought using SPEI drought class transitions and log-linear models for different agro-ecological regions of India”. Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, 100, 31-43, 2017.
15. Chen H, Sun J. “Changes in drought characteristics over china using the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index”. Journal of Climate, 28, 5430-5447, 2015.
16. Bamimahd SM, Khalili D. “Factors Influencing Markov Chains Predictability Characteristics, Utilizing SPI, RDI, EDI and SPEI Drought Indices in Different Climatic Zones”. Water Resources Management, 27, 3911-3928, 2013.
17. Wang W, Zhu Y, Xu R, Liu J. “Drought severity change in China during 1961-2012 indicated by SPI and SPEI”. Natural Hazards, 75(3), 2437-2451, 2014.
18. Hou M, Li H, Zou X, An W, Gao G, Zhao H. “Timescale differences between SC-PDSI and SPEI for drought monitoring in China”. Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, 102, 48-58, 2017.
19. Stagge JH, Tallaksen LM, Gudmundsson L, Van Loon A and Stahl K. “Candidate Distributions for Climatological Drought Indices (SPI and SPEI)”. International Journal of Climatology, 35(13), 4027-4040, 2015.
20. van der Schrier G, Barichivich J, Briffa KR, Jones PD. “A scPDSI-based global data set of dry and wet spells for 1901-2009”. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 118(10), 4025-4048, 2013.
21. Huang YF, Soh YW, Koo CH, Fung KF. “Application of artificial intelligence models for the prediction of standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) at Langat River Basin, Malaysia”. Computers and Electronics in Agriculture, 144, 164-173, 2018.
22. Donohue RJ, McVicar T, Roderick ML. “Assessing the ability of potential evaporation formulations to capture the dynamics in evaporative demand within a changing climate”. Journal of Hydrology, 386(1-4), 186-197, 2010.
23. Vicente-Serrano SM, Beguería S, Azorin-Molina C, Schrier Van der G. “Contribution of precipitation and reference evapotranspiration to drought indices under different climates”. Journal of Hydrology, 526, 42-54, 2015.
24. Dai A. “Increasing drought under global warming in observations and models”. Natural Climate Change, 3(1), 52, 2013.
25. McKee TB, Doesken NJ, Kleist J. “The relationship of drought relative frequency and duration to time scales”. 8th Conference on Applied Climatology, California, USA, 17-22 January 1993.
26. Abramowitz M, Stegun IA. Handbook of Mathematical Functions, with Formulas, Graphs, and Mathematical Tables. New York, USA, Dover Publications, 1965.
27. Hernandez EA, Uddameri V. “Standardized precipitation evaporation index (SPEI)-based drought assessment in semi-arid south Texas”. Environmental Earth Sciences, 71(6), 2491-2501, 2014.
28. Mouatadida S, Rajb N, Deob RC, Adamowskic JF. “Input selection and data-driven model performance optimization to predict the Standardized Precipitation and Evaporation Index in a drought-prone region”. Atmospheric Research, 212, 130-149, 2018.
29. Edwards DC, McKee TB. “Characteristics of 20th century drought in the United States at multiple time scales”. Atmospheric Science Thesis, 634, 1-30, 1997.
30. Onusluel Gul G. and Kuzucu A. “Analysis of drought severity in Seyhan river basin”. European Water, 60, 211-217, 2017.
31. Vicente-Serrano SM, Beguería S, Lopez-Moreno JI. “A Multiscalar drought index sensitive to global warming: the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index”. Journal of Climate, 23(7), 1696-1718, 2010.