MERKEZ BANKASI REZERVLERİ İLE REEL EFEKTİF DÖVİZ KURLARI ARASINDAKİ İLİŞKİNİN ANALİZİ

Önder Büberkökü; Ayhan Cesur; Kaan Yiğenoğlu

MERKEZ BANKASI REZERVLERİ İLE REEL EFEKTİF DÖVİZ KURLARI ARASINDAKİ İLİŞKİNİN ANALİZİ

Öz

Son dönemlerde Türkiye ekonomisinde merkez bankası rezervlerinin düzeyi ve Türk lirasında gözlemlenen sert fiyat hareketleri konusunda önemli tartışmalar yaşanmaktadır. Bu çalışmada Ocak 1994 ile Şubat 2021 dönemi dikkate alınarak merkez bankası rezervleri ile reel efektif döviz kurları arasındaki ilişki analiz edilmiştir. Uzun dönemli ilişki analizinde Johansen (1988,1991) koentegrasyon testi ile Gregory ve Hansen (1996) yapısal kırılmalı koentegrasyon testlerinden, nedensellik analizinde ise Toda ve Yamamoto (1995) nedensellik testi ile Breitung ve Candelon (2006) frekans alanlı nedensellik testinden yaralanılmıştır. Uzun dönem parametrelerinin tahmininde ise DOLS ve FMOLS tahmincileri kullanılmıştır. Koentegrasyon testlerine dayalı analizler değişkenler arasında uzun dönemli bir ilişki olduğu sonucuna işaret etmektedir. Uzun dönem parametreleri de pozitif ve istatistiki olarak anlamlı çıkmaktadır. Nedensellik testi sonuçları da orta ve uzun vadede merkez bankası rezervlerinden reel efektif döviz kurlarına doğru tek yönlü bir nedensellik ilişkisinin söz konusu olduğunu göstermektedir. Bu bulgular Türk lirasının reel değerinin korunmasında merkez bankası rezervlerinin önemli işlevlerinin bulunduğu anlamına gelmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

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Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil

Türkçe

Konular

-

Bölüm

Araştırma Makalesi

Yazarlar

Önder Büberkökü ^*
0000-0002-7140-557X
Türkiye

Ayhan Cesur
0000-0003-4305-3930
Türkiye

Kaan Yiğenoğlu
0000-0002-1961-6601
Türkiye

Yayımlanma Tarihi

22 Kasım 2021

Gönderilme Tarihi

22 Haziran 2021

Kabul Tarihi

17 Ağustos 2021

Yayımlandığı Sayı

Yıl 2021 Cilt: 17 Sayı: 2

IZ

https://izlik.org/JA45ZZ97EN

Kaynak Göster

RIS / Bibtex

APA

Büberkökü, Ö., Cesur, A., & Yiğenoğlu, K. (2021). MERKEZ BANKASI REZERVLERİ İLE REEL EFEKTİF DÖVİZ KURLARI ARASINDAKİ İLİŞKİNİN ANALİZİ. Paradoks Ekonomi Sosyoloji ve Politika Dergisi, 17(2), 117-150. https://izlik.org/JA45ZZ97EN

AMA

1.Büberkökü Ö, Cesur A, Yiğenoğlu K. MERKEZ BANKASI REZERVLERİ İLE REEL EFEKTİF DÖVİZ KURLARI ARASINDAKİ İLİŞKİNİN ANALİZİ. Paradoks Ekonomi Sosyoloji ve Politika Dergisi. 2021;17(2):117-150. https://izlik.org/JA45ZZ97EN

Chicago

Büberkökü, Önder, Ayhan Cesur, ve Kaan Yiğenoğlu. 2021. “MERKEZ BANKASI REZERVLERİ İLE REEL EFEKTİF DÖVİZ KURLARI ARASINDAKİ İLİŞKİNİN ANALİZİ”. Paradoks Ekonomi Sosyoloji ve Politika Dergisi 17 (2): 117-50. https://izlik.org/JA45ZZ97EN.

EndNote

Büberkökü Ö, Cesur A, Yiğenoğlu K (01 Kasım 2021) MERKEZ BANKASI REZERVLERİ İLE REEL EFEKTİF DÖVİZ KURLARI ARASINDAKİ İLİŞKİNİN ANALİZİ. Paradoks Ekonomi Sosyoloji ve Politika Dergisi 17 2 117–150.

IEEE

[1]Ö. Büberkökü, A. Cesur, ve K. Yiğenoğlu, “MERKEZ BANKASI REZERVLERİ İLE REEL EFEKTİF DÖVİZ KURLARI ARASINDAKİ İLİŞKİNİN ANALİZİ”, Paradoks Ekonomi Sosyoloji ve Politika Dergisi, c. 17, sy 2, ss. 117–150, Kas. 2021, [çevrimiçi]. Erişim adresi: https://izlik.org/JA45ZZ97EN

ISNAD

Büberkökü, Önder - Cesur, Ayhan - Yiğenoğlu, Kaan. “MERKEZ BANKASI REZERVLERİ İLE REEL EFEKTİF DÖVİZ KURLARI ARASINDAKİ İLİŞKİNİN ANALİZİ”. Paradoks Ekonomi Sosyoloji ve Politika Dergisi 17/2 (01 Kasım 2021): 117-150. https://izlik.org/JA45ZZ97EN.

JAMA

1.Büberkökü Ö, Cesur A, Yiğenoğlu K. MERKEZ BANKASI REZERVLERİ İLE REEL EFEKTİF DÖVİZ KURLARI ARASINDAKİ İLİŞKİNİN ANALİZİ. Paradoks Ekonomi Sosyoloji ve Politika Dergisi. 2021;17:117–150.

MLA

Büberkökü, Önder, vd. “MERKEZ BANKASI REZERVLERİ İLE REEL EFEKTİF DÖVİZ KURLARI ARASINDAKİ İLİŞKİNİN ANALİZİ”. Paradoks Ekonomi Sosyoloji ve Politika Dergisi, c. 17, sy 2, Kasım 2021, ss. 117-50, https://izlik.org/JA45ZZ97EN.

Vancouver

1.Önder Büberkökü, Ayhan Cesur, Kaan Yiğenoğlu. MERKEZ BANKASI REZERVLERİ İLE REEL EFEKTİF DÖVİZ KURLARI ARASINDAKİ İLİŞKİNİN ANALİZİ. Paradoks Ekonomi Sosyoloji ve Politika Dergisi [Internet]. 01 Kasım 2021;17(2):117-50. Erişim adresi: https://izlik.org/JA45ZZ97EN