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MERKEZ BANKASI REZERVLERİ İLE REEL EFEKTİF DÖVİZ KURLARI ARASINDAKİ İLİŞKİNİN ANALİZİ

Yıl 2021, Cilt: 17 Sayı: 2, 117 - 150, 22.11.2021

Öz

Son dönemlerde Türkiye ekonomisinde merkez bankası rezervlerinin düzeyi ve Türk lirasında gözlemlenen sert fiyat hareketleri konusunda önemli tartışmalar yaşanmaktadır. Bu çalışmada Ocak 1994 ile Şubat 2021 dönemi dikkate alınarak merkez bankası rezervleri ile reel efektif döviz kurları arasındaki ilişki analiz edilmiştir. Uzun dönemli ilişki analizinde Johansen (1988,1991) koentegrasyon testi ile Gregory ve Hansen (1996) yapısal kırılmalı koentegrasyon testlerinden, nedensellik analizinde ise Toda ve Yamamoto (1995) nedensellik testi ile Breitung ve Candelon (2006) frekans alanlı nedensellik testinden yaralanılmıştır. Uzun dönem parametrelerinin tahmininde ise DOLS ve FMOLS tahmincileri kullanılmıştır. Koentegrasyon testlerine dayalı analizler değişkenler arasında uzun dönemli bir ilişki olduğu sonucuna işaret etmektedir. Uzun dönem parametreleri de pozitif ve istatistiki olarak anlamlı çıkmaktadır. Nedensellik testi sonuçları da orta ve uzun vadede merkez bankası rezervlerinden reel efektif döviz kurlarına doğru tek yönlü bir nedensellik ilişkisinin söz konusu olduğunu göstermektedir. Bu bulgular Türk lirasının reel değerinin korunmasında merkez bankası rezervlerinin önemli işlevlerinin bulunduğu anlamına gelmektedir.

Kaynakça

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Toplam 65 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil Türkçe
Bölüm Makaleler
Yazarlar

Önder Büberkökü 0000-0002-7140-557X

Ayhan Cesur 0000-0003-4305-3930

Kaan Yiğenoğlu 0000-0002-1961-6601

Yayımlanma Tarihi 22 Kasım 2021
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2021 Cilt: 17 Sayı: 2

Kaynak Göster

APA Büberkökü, Ö., Cesur, A., & Yiğenoğlu, K. (2021). MERKEZ BANKASI REZERVLERİ İLE REEL EFEKTİF DÖVİZ KURLARI ARASINDAKİ İLİŞKİNİN ANALİZİ. Paradoks Ekonomi Sosyoloji Ve Politika Dergisi, 17(2), 117-150.