GAYRİMENKUL FİYATLARINDA PATLAYICI FİYAT DAVRANIŞLARI: GELİŞMEKTE OLAN EKONOMİLER ÜZERİNDE KARŞILAŞTIRMALI BİR ARAŞTIRMA

Öz

Konut fiyatlarındaki değişimler hem temel faktörlerden hem de spekülatif dinamiklerden kaynaklanabilir. Bu çalışma, “Kırılgan Beşli” ekonomilerinde —Türkiye, Brezilya, Güney Afrika, Endonezya ve Hindistan— pandemi ve enerji krizleri gibi son küresel şoklar altında konut piyasalarındaki patlayıcı fiyat hareketlerini incelemektedir. Analiz, 2010 1. çeyrekten 2024 4. çeyreğe kadar uzanan verileri kapsamakta olup, pandemi öncesi ve sonrası dönemi birlikte değerlendirmeye imkân tanımaktadır. Bu ülkeler benzer yapısal kırılganlıklara sahip olmasına rağmen, farklı makroekonomik ve yapısal politikalar benimsemektedirler. Bu nedenle, varlık fiyatları üzerinde yapılacak karşılaştırmalı bir analiz, hem politika yapıcılar hem de piyasa katılımcıları için faydalı bilgiler sunabilir. Karşılaştırmalı bir çerçevede genelleştirilmiş supremum artırılmış Dickey-Fuller (GSADF) testi uygulanarak, çalışma literatüre büyük gelişmekte olan ekonomiler arasında karşılaştırmalı GSADF analizini sistematik biçimde sunan ilk çalışmalardan biri olarak katkı sağlamaktadır. Tek bir ülkeye veya gelişmiş ekonomilere odaklanan önceki araştırmalardan farklı olarak, bu araştırma büyük gelişmekte olan ekonomiler hakkında güncel karşılaştırmalı veriler sunmaktadır. Bulgular, Brezilya ve Güney Afrika’da birer dönemde, Türkiye’de ise üç farklı dönemde konut fiyat balonlarının ortaya çıktığını göstermektedir. Karşılaştırmalı bulgular, ülkeler arasında pandemi sonrasında farklılaşan bir desen ortaya koymaktadır: Türkiye’nin gevşek para politikası gayrimenkul fiyatlarında büyük artışlara yol açarken, Brezilya’nın görece daha sıkı politika çerçevesi spekülatif baskıları sınırlamış ve fiyat dinamiklerini daha ılımlı tutmuştur. Buna karşılık, Güney Afrika’daki daraltıcı koşullar konut piyasasında aşağı yönlü bir düzeltmenin erken işaretlerini vermektedir. Bulgular, yükselen piyasalarda konut fiyat dinamiklerindeki ayrışmanın yalnızca para politikası tepkileriyle değil, aynı zamanda spekülatif baskıları şekillendiren daha geniş yapısal ve düzenleyici çerçevelerle belirlendiğini göstermektedir. Balon risklerini azaltmak ve konut piyasasında sürdürülebilir istikrarı desteklemek için daha geniş bir makro-ihtiyati politika seti, güçlendirilmiş düzenleyici denetim ve konut arzı ile piyasa şeffaflığını artıracak yapısal önlemler gerekmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Konut piyasası
• Patlayıcı fiyat davranışları
• Gelişen ekonomiler

EXPLOSIVE PRICE CHARACTERISTIC IN HOUSING MARKET: A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS ON EMERGING ECONOMIES

Öz

Housing price changes can be driven by both fundamental factors and speculative dynamics. This study examines explosive price movements in the housing markets of the “Fragile Five” economies—Türkiye, Brazil, South Africa, Indonesia, and India—under recent global shocks such as the pandemic and energy crises. The analysis covers quarterly data from Q1 2010 to Q4 2024, allowing the study to capture both pre- and post-pandemic market period. Although these countries share similar structural vulnerabilities, they adopt different macroeconomic and structural policies. Therefore, a comparative analysis of asset prices across selected countries can provide useful insights for both policymakers and market participants. By applying the generalized supremum augmented Dickey-Fuller (GSADF) test in a comparative framework, the paper contributes to the literature as one of the first studies to provide a systematic comparative GSADF analysis across major emerging markets. Unlike earlier research that focused on single countries or advanced economies, it provides updated comparative evidence on major emerging economies. The results indicate that housing price bubbles emerged in one period in Brazil and South Africa, and in three distinct episodes in Türkiye. Comparative evidence reveals a divergent pattern across countries: Türkiye’s accommodative monetary stance in the post-pandemic period fueled exuberant increases in real estate prices, Brazil’s relatively tighter policy framework contained speculative pressures and kept price dynamics more moderate, while South Africa’s contractionary conditions signaled early signs of a downward adjustment in the housing market. The findings suggest that the divergence in housing price dynamics across emerging markets is shaped not only by monetary policy responses but also by broader structural and regulatory frameworks that influence speculative pressures. A broader mix of macroprudential tools, strengthened regulatory oversight, and structural measures aimed at expanding housing supply and improving market transparency is essential to mitigate bubble risks and support sustainable housing market stability.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Housing market
• Explosive price behavior
• Emerging economies

Kaynakça

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