TÜRKİYE’DE BÖLGESEL KALKINMA VE DIŞ TİCARETİN NEDENSELLİK İLİŞKİSİ: DÜZEY-2 BÖLGELERİ ÜZERİNE BİR ANALİZ

Öz

Bu çalışmanın amacı, dış ticaretin bölgesel kalkınma üzerindeki etkilerini Türkiye örneğinde kısa ve uzun dönemli ilişkiler çerçevesinde incelemektir. Çalışmada, 2008–2023 dönemini kapsayan dengeli panel veri seti kullanılarak Türkiye’nin 26 Düzey-2 bölgesi analiz edilmiştir. Bölgesel kalkınma, gelir, sağlık ve eğitim göstergelerinden oluşturulan bileşik bir kalkınma endeksi ile temsil edilmiştir. İhracat, ithalat, toplam dış ticaret hacmi ve ticaret açıklığı değişkenleri için ayrı modeller kurulmuş; yatay kesit bağımlılığı ve heterojenlik dikkate alınarak FMOLS, DOLS, MG ve PMG tahmincileri kullanılmıştır. Bulgular, uzun dönemde ihracatın bölgesel kalkınma üzerinde pozitif ve istatistiksel olarak anlamlı bir etkiye sahip olduğunu göstermektedir. İthalatın etkisi bölgeler arasında farklılaşırken, ticaret açıklığı için yöntemler arasında tutarlı ve istikrarlı bir uzun dönem ilişki tespit edilememiştir. Elde edilen sonuçlar, bölgesel kalkınma politikalarında ihracat odaklı, yerel potansiyellere dayalı ve seçici politika araçlarının önemine işaret etmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Bölgesel Kalkınma
• Dış ticaret
• İhracat
• İthalat
• Panel veri analizi

REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT AND FOREIGN TRADE CAUSALITY IN TURKIYE: AN ANALYSIS OF NUTS-2 REGIONS

Öz

This study aims to examine the effects of foreign trade on regional development in Turkiye within the framework of short- and long-run relationships. Using a balanced panel dataset covering the period 2008–2023, the analysis focuses on Turkiye’s 26 NUTS-2 regions. Regional development is represented by a composite development index constructed from income, health, and education indicators. Separate models are estimated for exports, imports, total foreign trade volume, and trade openness. To account for cross-sectional dependence and heterogeneity, FMOLS, DOLS, MG, and PMG estimators are employed. The findings indicate that exports have a positive and statistically significant effect on regional development in the long run. While the impact of imports varies across regions, no consistent and robust long-run relationship is identified for trade openness across estimation methods. The results highlight the importance of export-oriented, selective, and region-specific policy instruments based on local potentials in regional development strategies.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Regional development
• Foreign trade
• Exports
• Imports
• Panel data analysis

Kaynakça

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