OECD ÜLKELERİNDE DOĞAL AFETLERİN BÜTÇE AÇIKLARI ÜZERİNE ETKİSİ: DİNAMİK PANEL VERİ ANALİZİ

Öz

Bu çalışma, iklim değişiklikleri sonucu ortaya çıkan doğal afetlerin bütçe açıkları üzerindeki etkisini ampirik olarak analiz etmeyi amaçlamaktadır. Çalışma 34 OECD ülkesini ve 2000-2018 dönemini kapsamaktadır. İki aşamalı sistem GMM analizinden yararlanılarak elde edilen bulgular; kamu borcu, dış ticaret, GSYİH büyümesi, doğal afetlerin toplam zarar maliyetleri bütçe açıklarını istatistiksel olarak anlamlı ve pozitif etkilerken nüfus yoğunluğun negatif etkilediği; enflasyon ile bütçe açıkları arasında ise istatistiksel olarak anlamlı bir ilişki olmadığını ortaya koymaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Doğal Afetler
• Bütçe Açıkları
• Panel Veri

THE EFFECT OF NATURAL DISASTERS ON BUDGET DEFICITS IN OECD COUNTRIES: DYNAMIC PANEL DATA ANALYSIS

Öz

This study aims to analyze empirically the impact of natural disasters caused by climate changes on budget deficits. The study on 34 OECD countries covers the period 2000-2018. The results of the study obtained by employing two-stage system GMM analysis reveal public debt, foreign trade, GDP growth, and total loss costs of natural disasters affect the budget deficits statistically significantly and positively, while population density negatively affects the population density; however, there is no statistically significant relationship between inflation and budget deficits.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Natural Disasters
• Budget Deficits
• Panel Data

Kaynakça

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