BRICS ve BRICS+ Ülkelerinde Mal ve Hizmet Ticareti ile Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki İlişki: Panel Veri Analizi

Öz

Bu çalışma, BRICS ve BRICS+ kapsamında yer alan seçilmiş ülkelerde mal ve hizmet ticaretinin ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkilerini incelemektedir. 1994–2023 dönemini kapsayan panel veri seti kullanılarak, Dünya Bankası Kalkınma Göstergeleri veri tabanından elde edilen yıllık veriler analiz edilmiştir. Bağımlı değişken olarak kişi başına düşen gayrisafi yurt içi hasıla (GSYH), bağımsız değişkenler olarak ise mal ihracatı, mal ithalatı, hizmet ihracatı ve hizmet ithalatı ele alınmıştır. Panel veri setinde çapraz kesit bağımlılığı ve eğim heterojenliği tespit edilmiş; bu nedenle analizler Artırılmış Ortalama Grup (AMG) yöntemiyle gerçekleştirilmiştir. Bulgular, mal ihracatının ve özellikle hizmet ithalatının ekonomik büyüme üzerinde pozitif ve anlamlı etkiler yarattığını göstermektedir. Ülke bazlı sonuçlar ise dış ticaretin büyüme üzerindeki etkisinin homojen olmadığını ve ülkeye özgü yapısal farklılıkların belirleyici olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır. Ayrıca, Dumitrescu-Hurlin Panel Granger Nedensellik testi sonuçları, mal ve hizmet ticaretinin tüm alt bileşenlerinin en az bir ülkede ekonomik büyümenin Granger nedeni olduğunu göstermektedir. Bu bulgular, dış ticaretin sadece eşzamanlı değil, aynı zamanda yönlendirici bir büyüme belirleyicisi olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• BIRCS
• ekonomik büyüme
• dış ticaret
• panel veri analizi

The Relationship Between Merchandise and Service Trade and Economic Growth in BRICS and BRICS+ Countries: A Panel Data Analysis

Öz

This study examines the impact of merchandise and service trade on economic growth in selected BRICS and BRICS+ countries. A panel dataset was constructed by utilizing annual data from the World Bank’s World Development Indicators for the period 1994–2023, Per capita gross domestic product (GDP) was employed as the dependent variable, while merchandise exports, merchandise imports, service exports, and service imports served as the independent variables. Tests revealed the presence of cross-sectional dependence and slope heterogeneity within the panel data, leading to the adoption of the Augmented Mean Group (AMG) estimation method. The findings indicate that merchandise exports and, particularly, service imports have a positive and statistically significant impact on economic growth. Country-specific results highlight that the relationship between trade and growth is not homogeneous but shaped by structural differences across nations. Moreover, the Dumitrescu-Hurlin Panel Granger Causality test confirms that all components of foreign trade act as Granger causes of economic growth in at least one country. These results suggest that foreign trade is not only correlated with but also dynamically drives growth in the BRICS+ context.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• BRICS
• economic growth
• foreign trade
• panel data analysis

Kaynakça

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