Sürdürülebilir Çevre Perspektifinde Türkiye’nin Ekolojik Açığı ve Yakınsama Analizi: Fourier KSS Birim Kök Testi

Yıl 2024, Cilt: 8 Sayı: 4, 1188 - 1202, 23.12.2024

Ömer Akçayır , Fatih Akın

https://doi.org/10.30586/pek.1560723

Öz

Yerkürenin ürettiği biyokapasitenin oldukça üzerinde tüketilen rezervlerin kendisini yenilemesine imkan vermeksizin ortaya çıkan ekolojik açık giderek artmakta ve gelecek nesillerin refahları hızla yok olmaktadır. Sürdürülebilir bir ekonomik büyüme için bir takım çabalar ortaya konulsa da, ekolojik açığın sürdürülebilirliği merak konusudur. Literatürde çok sayıda çalışmada, çevresel sürdürülebilirlik ve uzun dönem tahmini için yakınsama analizlerini uygulamış, ülke grupları arasında yakınsamanın varlığı araştırılmıştır. Çalışmada, 1961-2022 yılları arasında Türkiye’nin de dâhil olduğu 6 ülke, 4 kıta, 13 bölge ve dünya ortalamasına ait kişi başına düşen ekolojik açık verileri, Christopoulos ve León-Ledesma (2010) tarafından ortaya atılan Fourier tabanlı F-KSS birim kök testleri ile analiz edilmiştir. Uzun dönemde dünya ortalamasının ve birçok ülke ya da bölgenin ekolojik ayak izlerinin biyokapasitenin üzerinde olduğu ve düzelme seyri göstermediği sonucuna ulaşılmıştır. Ayrıca Türkiye‘nin, açıkların sürdürülemez olduğu bulgusuyla diğer 23 seriye yakınsayıp yakınsamadığı analiz edilmiştir. Türkiye’nin uzun vadede Çin, Doğu Asya, Afrika ve dünya ortalamasına yakındığı sonucuna ulaşılmıştır. Avrupa’nın “karbon nötr kıta” vizyonu ile ortaya koyduğu, son dönemlerde yapmış olduğu hukuki düzenlemeler ve yaptırımlardan sonuç almaya başladığı çıkarımıyla, Türkiye’nin bu çevresel düzenlemelere çok hızlı entegrasyonun gerektiği düşünülmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Ekolojik Ayak izi, Yakınsama Analizi, Sürdürülebilir Çevre, Ekolojik Açık

Ecological Deficit and Convergence Analysis of Turkiye in the Perspective of Sustainable Environment: Fourier KSS Unit Root Test

Öz

The ecological deficit that emerges without allowing the reserves consumed well above the biocapacity produced by the earth to renew itself is gradually increasing and the welfare of future generations is rapidly disappearing. Although some efforts have been made for a sustainable economic growth, the sustainability of the ecological deficit is a matter of curiosity. Many studies in the literature have applied convergence analyses for environmental sustainability and long-run forecasting and the existence of convergence among country groups has been investigated. In this study, the per capita ecological deficit data for including Turkey 6 countries, 4 continents, 13 regions and the world average between 1961 and 2022 are analysed with the Fourier-based F-KSS unit root tests proposed by Christopoulos and León-Ledesma (2010). In the long term, it was concluded that the ecological footprints of the world average and many countries and regions are above the biocapacity and do not come out a signs of improvement. It is also analysed whether Turkey converges to the other 23 series with the finding that deficits are unsustainable. It is concluded that Turkey is converge to China, East Asia, Africa and the world average in the long run. With the inference that Europe has started to get results from the legal regulations and sanctions that it has recently made with the vision of ‘carbon neutral continent’, it is thought that Turkey should be integrated into these environmental regulations immeditally.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Ecological Footprint, Convergence Analysis, Sustainable Environment, Ecological Deficit

Kaynakça

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