Yapısal Kırılma Altında Enerji Tüketimi ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi: Türkiye Üzerine Bir Uygulama

Öz

Petrol krizlerinin 1970'li yıllardan sonra Dünya'yı büyük bir ekonomik sıkıntıya soktuğu bilinmektedir. Bu krizler, enerji arzıyla ilgili sorunlardan kaynaklanmış olup, ekonomi ve enerji arasındaki ilişkiyi daha fazla tartışma ortamı oluşturmuştur. Bu dönemde, ekonomistler arasında enerji ve ekonomik büyüme kavramları üzerine yapılan tartışmalar artmıştır. Bu çalışma, EC (enerji tüketimi) ve EG (ekonomik büyüme) literatüründeki tartışmalara, biyofiziksel teorinin bakış açısından katkıda bulunmayı amaçlamaktadır. Bu çalışmada, Türkiye’de 1970-2019 dönemi için EC’nin EG üzerindeki etkisi ve EG’nin EC üzerindeki etkisini Zivot-Andrews birimkök, Gregory-Hansen eş-bütünleşme, DOLS, FMOLS, CCR ve Granger nedensellik analizi yöntemleriyle incelenmiştir. Bu yöntemlerle Türkiye’de yapısal kırılmalar dikkate alınarak uzun dönem ilişkiler ve nedensellik ilişkilerinin karmaşık yapısı derinlemesine incelenmiştir. Bulgular, EC ile EG arasında eş-bütünleşme ilişkisi tespit edilmiştir. Yapılsal kırılma yılı 2010 bulunarak küresel ekonomik krizin etkilerinin devam ettiği görülmüştür. Uzun dönem dönem katsayılarına bakıldığında EC’de yaşanacak %1’lik bir artış DOLS, FMOLS ve CCR tahmincilerine göre sırasıyla %0.37, %0.72 ve %0.69 EG’yi arttırmaktadır. Ayrıca, EC'nin EG'nin Granger nedenidir. Türkiye’de büyüme hipotezinin geçerli olduğu görülmüştür. Türkiye'de enerji yatırımlarının artmasını destekleyen politikaların oluşturulması, istikrarlı bir ekonomik büyümeye katkı sağlama potansiyeline sahiptir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Enerji Ekonomisi
• Zivot Andrews
• Gregory Hansen
• DOLS
• FMOLS
• CCR.

The Relationship of Energy Consumption and Economic Growth under Structural Break: An Application on Türkiye

Öz

It is known that oil crises caused great economic distress in the world after the 1970s. These crises were caused by problems related to energy supply and created a more debatable environment for the relationship between economy and energy. During this period, discussions on the concepts of energy and economic growth increased among economists. This study aims to contribute to the discussions in the EC (energy consumption) and EG (economic growth) literature from the perspective of biophysical theory. In this study, the effect of EC on EG and the effect of EG on EC for the period 1970-2019 in Türkiye were examined using Zivot-Andrews unit root, Gregory-Hansen cointegration, DOLS, FMOLS, CCR and Granger causality analysis methods. With these methods, the complex structure of long-term relationships and causality relationships were examined in depth by taking into account structural breaks in Türkiye. The findings revealed that there was a cointegration relationship between EC and EG. The structural break year was found to be 2010 and it was seen that the effects of the global economic crisis continued. When the long-term coefficients are examined, a 1% increase in EC increases EG by 0.37%, 0.72% and 0.69%, respectively, according to DOLS, FMOLS and CCR estimators. In addition, EC is the Granger cause of EG. It was seen that the growth hypothesis is valid in Türkiye. The establishment of policies that support the increase in energy investments in Türkiye has the potential to contribute to a stable economic growth.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Energy Economics
• Zivot Andrews
• Gregory Hansen
• DOLS
• FMOLS
• CCR.

Kaynakça

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