Susurluk Havzasında Üç Farklı Grid Yağış Veri Setinin Ölçüm Verileriyle Karşılaştırılarak Performanslarının Değerlendirilmesi

Öz

ÖZ Son yıllarda, uzamsal-zamansal dağılımı doğru yansıtan uzun dönemli yağış verilerine olan ihtiyaç artmaktadır. Bu ihtiyacı karşılamak amacıyla grid formatında çeşitli yağış veri setleri geliştirilmektedir. Ancak, grid yağış veri setlerinin kullanılmadan önce doğruluklarının ölçüm veri setleriyle kıyaslanarak analiz edilmesi gerekmektedir. Bu amaçla, Susurluk Havzasında 3 farklı aylık grid yağış veri seti (Climatic Research Unit (CRU), Global Precipitation Climatology Center (GPCC) ve University of Delaware (UDEL)) ile ölçüm veri seti aylık, mevsimsel ve yıllık ölçekte 1966-2017 yıllarını kapsayacak şekilde karşılaştırılmıştır. Ölçüm veri seti, Meteoroloji Genel Müdürlüğü’nün Bandırma, Bursa, Dursunbey, Keles, Simav ve Tavşanlı istasyonlarından edinilmiştir. Grid yağış veri setleri ile ölçüm veri seti arasındaki uyum, Belirtme Katsayısı (R2). Kök Ortalama Kare Hatası (RMSE), Ortalama Sapma Hatası (MBE) ve Nash-Sutcliffe Verim İndeksi (NSE) istatistiksel indeksleri kullanılarak değerlendirilmiştir. Grid yağış veri setleri arasında, GPCC genel olarak en iyi performansı sergilerken, CRU en düşük performansı göstermiştir. Ayrıca, grid veri setlerinin düşük rakımlı bölgelerde ölçüm veri setiyle daha uyumlu olduğu gözlemlenmiştir. Yağışlı dönemlerde (kış ve sonbahar), grid yağış veri setlerinin ölçüm veri setiyle daha iyi bir uyum sağladığı tespit edilmiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Yağış
• Grid Yağış Veri Seti
• Performans Değerlendirme
• Susurluk Havzası

Evaluating the Performance of Three Different Gridded Precipitation Datasets by Comparing the Measurement Dataset in the Susurluk Basin

Öz

In recent years, the need for long-term precipitation datasets that accurately represent spatiotemporal distribution has significantly increased. To meet this need, various gridded precipitation datasets have been developed. However, before utilizing these datasets, their accuracy must be assessed by comparing them with measurement datasets. For this purpose, the performance of three different monthly gridded precipitation datasets (Climatic Research Unit (CRU), Global Precipitation Climatology Center (GPCC) and University of Delaware (UDEL)) was evaluated in the Susurluk Basin over the period 1966–2017 at monthly, seasonal, and annual scales. The measurement dataset was obtained from six meteorological stations (Bandırma, Bursa, Dursunbey, Keles, Simav, and Tavşanlı) operated by the Turkish State Meteorological Service. The agreement between gridded and measurement datasets was assessed using statistical indexes such as the Coefficient of Determination (R²), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Mean Bias Error (MBE), and Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency Index (NSE). Among the gridded datasets, GPCC demonstrated the best overall performance, while CRU showed the lowest performance. Additionally, it was observed that the gridded datasets exhibited higher consistency with measurement dataset in low-altitude regions. During wet seasons (winter and autumn), gridded precipitation datasets showed better agreement with the measurement dataset.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Precipitation
• Gridded Precipitation Dataset
• Performance Evaluation
• Susurluk Basin.

Kaynakça

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