THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN ECONOMIC GROWTH EXPECTATION REVISIONS AND MACROECONOMIC VARIABLES: A STUDY ON TÜRKİYE
Öz
This study focuses on economic growth expectations implemented by the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye for market professionals. The study covers the data period 2013Q1-2025Q3. By considering changes (revisions) in forecasts, the relationship between these changes and selected macroeconomic factors is examined. Because expectations are dynamic in nature. Due to changing conditions locally and globally, revisions to forecasts may also be necessary. Knowing which macroeconomic factors this revision is more sensitive to can help policymakers manage expectations. The analysis in the research was conducted using the Fourier ADL cointegration test. The reason for choosing this method is that it is a type of analysis that takes into account soft fractures. Breakpoints can be incorporated into the model without the need to know their break dates and effect durations, and without adding dummy variables. The results of the analysis show that the variables of output deficit, capital, loan volume, policy interest, inflation and uncertainty have a statistically significant effect on the revisions of economic growth forecasts of market forecasters. However, the fact that the coefficients of the output deficit, capital and uncertainty variables have a higher coefficient value compared to other variables shows that these variables play a relatively dominant role on economic growth expectation revisions. This result indicates that market forecasters are more limited influenced by financial conditions and pay more attention to real sector indicators.
Anahtar Kelimeler
Economic Growth Expectation, Macroeconomic Variables, Fourier Functions
Destekleyen Kurum
Etik Beyan
Kaynakça
- Arcand, J. L., Berkes, E., & Panizza, U. (2015). Too much finance?. Journal of Economic Growth, 20(2), 105-148. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10887-015-9115-2
- Arregui, M. N., Benes, M. J., Krznar, M. I., Mitra, M. S., & Santos, M. A. (2013). Evaluating the net benefits of macroprudential policy: A cookbook. International Monetary Fund. https://doi.org/10.5089/9781484335727.001.a001
- Banerjee, P., Arčabić, V., & Lee, H. (2017). Fourier ADL cointegration test to approximate smooth breaks with new evidence from crude oil market. Economic Modelling, 67, 114-124. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2016.11.004
- Batchelor, R. (2007). Bias in macroeconomic forecasts. International Journal of Forecasting, 23(2), 189-203. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2007.01.004
- Bayar, G., Kargı, M., & Kuş, B. O. (2024). Türkiye GSYH büyümesinin MIDAS ile şimdi tahmini. ODTÜ Gelişme Dergisi, 51(1), 75-103. https://doi.org/10.60165/metusd.v51i1.3
- Beckmann, J., & Czudaj, R. L. (2020). Professional forecasters' expectations, consistency, and international spillovers. Journal of Forecasting, 39(7), 1001-1024. https://doi.org/10.1002/for.2675
- Beckmann, J., & Geiger, M. (2025). Expectations and the transmission of international uncertainty: Evidence from cross-country survey data. Macroeconomic Dynamics, 29, e57. https://doi.org/10.1017/s1365100524000397
- Beki, M. (2024). Makroekonomik değişkenlerin ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkisi: Türkiye için ampirik uygulama. Bingöl Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, (28), 180–193. https://doi.org/10.29029/busbed.1485626
- Calvo, G. A. (1983). Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework. Journal of Monetary Economics, 12(3), 383-398. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-3932(83)90060-0
- Candia, B., Coibion, O., & Gorodnichenko, Y. (2020). Communication and the beliefs of economic agents (No. w27800). National Bureau of Economic Research. https://doi.org/10.3386/w27800
