The Effect of Uncertainty on International Direct Investment: Structural Break ARDL and Causality Approach in Türkiye's Direct Investment in Bosnia and Herzegovina

Öz

This study investigates how global uncertainty and global sentiment indicators are associated with foreign direct investment (FDI) flows from Türkiye to Bosnia and Herzegovina. Quarterly data spanning the period 2006Q2–2024Q3 are employed, and the empirical analysis is conducted using a structural break–augmented ARDL framework. The dependent variable is specified as the year-on-year percentage change in FDI inflows originating from Türkiye, whereas the explanatory variables are constructed from the IMF’s global uncertainty and global sentiment indices. Unit root test results demonstrate that all variables are integrated of order one, thereby confirming the applicability of the ARDL bounds testing approach. The findings indicate that global uncertainty and global sentiment generate limited and transitory effects on FDI flows in the short run. Although the presence of a long-run cointegration relationship is confirmed, the corresponding long-run coefficients fail to attain statistical significance. Overall, the results point to the view that global psychological indicators play a relatively weak role in shaping Türkiye’s outward FDI toward Bosnia and Herzegovina, with investment decisions appearing to be driven predominantly by structural and bilateral economic factors. 

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Foreign Direct Investment
• Uncertainty Index
• ARDL
• Türkiye
• Bosnia and Herzegovina

Uluslararası Doğrudan Sermaye Yatırımları Üzerinde Belirsizliğin Etkisi: Türkiye’nin Bosna-Hersek’e Yönelik Doğrudan Yatırımlarında Yapısal Kırılmalı ARDL ve Nedensellik Yaklaşımı

Öz

Bu çalışma, Türkiye’den Bosna-Hersek’e yönelen doğrudan yabancı sermaye yatırımlarının (DYY), Bosna-Hersek’e ilişkin küresel belirsizlik ve küresel duyarlılık göstergeleriyle olan ilişkisini incelemektedir. Analizlerde 2006Q2–2024Q3 dönemini kapsayan çeyreklik veriler kullanılmış ve yapısal kırılmalı ARDL yaklaşımı uygulanmıştır. Bağımlı değişken, Türkiye kaynaklı DYY akışlarının yıllık yüzde değişimi olarak tanımlanırken; bağımsız değişkenler IMF tarafından yayımlanan küresel belirsizlik ve küresel duyarlılık endekslerinden elde edilmiştir. Birim kök testleri, tüm değişkenlerin birinci farklarında durağan olduğunu ortaya koymuş ve ARDL sınır testi çerçevesinin uygulanabilirliğini doğrulamıştır. Elde edilen bulgular, kısa dönemde küresel belirsizlik ve duyarlılık göstergelerinin DYY üzerinde sınırlı ve geçici etkiler yarattığını, uzun dönemde ise değişkenler arasında eşbütünleşme ilişkisi bulunmasına karşın katsayıların istatistiksel olarak anlamlı olmadığını göstermektedir. Bu sonuçlar, Türkiye–Bosna-Hersek DYY ilişkilerinde küresel psikolojik göstergelerin belirleyici etkisinin zayıf kaldığını ve yatırım kararlarının daha çok yapısal ve ikili ekonomik unsurlar tarafından şekillendiğini ortaya koymaktadır. 

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırımlar
• Belirsizlik Endeksi
• ARDL
• Türkiye
• Bosna-Hersek

Kaynakça

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