İSTANBUL’DA ÖZEL SEKTÖR HUZUREVİ YATAK KAPASİTESİ İLE YAŞLI NÜFUS ARASINDAKİ İLİŞKİ: BİR REGRESYON ANALİZİ

Öz

Nüfusun yaşlanması, aile yapısındaki değişim, ekonomik ve sosyal olanaklarda yaşanan artış gibi nedenlerle dünya genelindeki gibi Türkiye’de de huzurevlerine olan talep artmaktadır. Özel sektör huzurevleri, devletin sınırsız kaynaklarının desteğini alan kamu sektörü huzurevlerinin aksine mali sürdürebilirliği için talebe daha çok bağımlıdır. Huzurevlerine olan talebi yaşlı nüfus oluşturduğundan, özel sektör huzurevlerinin yatak kapasitelerinin yaşlıların yaşadığı bölgelerle orantılı dağıtılması, işletme rasyonelliğinin bir göstergesi olarak kabul edilebilir. Bu çalışmanın amacı da İstanbul’da özel sektör huzurevlerinin kuruluş yeri seçiminde – kapasite belirlemede talep odaklı işletme rasyonelliğine uyumunu sınamaktır. Özel huzurevlerinin olduğu İstanbul’un 25 ilçesindeki 5erli yaş dilimlerindeki nüfus ve özel sektör huzurevlerinin yatak kapasiteleri veri setini oluşturmuş; ekonometrik yöntem olarak da regresyon analizi kullanılmıştır. Özel sektör huzurevlerindeki yatak arzına dair en güncel verilerin 2019 yılına ait olması ise bu çalışmasının kısıdını oluşturmuştur. İstatistiksel uygulamalar sonucunda, ilçelerdeki yaşlı nüfus varlığının özel sektör huzurevi yatak arzının belirleyicisi olduğu ve R2 değerlerine göre bu belirleyiciliğin yaş ilerledikçe daha da arttığı sonucuna varılmıştır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Sosyal politika
• sosyal planlama
• sosyal hizmet
• geriatri
• huzurevleri

THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN PRIVATE SECTOR NURSING HOME BED CAPACITY AND ELDERLY POPULATION IN ISTANBUL: A REGRESSION ANALYSIS

Öz

The demand for nursing homes is increasing in Turkey like the world because the population is aging, family structure is changing, and economic and social opportunities are rising. Private sector nursing homes are more dependent on demand for their financial sustainability, unlike public sector nursing homes that take the support of government's unlimited sources. Because the elderly population creates the demand for nursing homes, distributing the bed capacities of private sector nursing homes proportionally with the regions where elderly people live can be accepted as an indicator of business rationality. The aim of this study is also to test the adaptation of private sector nursing homes in Istanbul with demand-driven business rationality in their location selection and capacity determination. The population in 5-year age groups in 25 districts of Istanbul where private nursing homes exist and the bed capacities of private sector nursing homes formed the data set, and OLS regression analysis was used as the statistical approach with stepwise method. The fact that the most current data on bed supply in private sector nursing homes belongs to the year 2019 formed the limitation of this study. Statistical analysis showed that the presence of elderly population in districts is the determiner of private sector nursing home bed supply, and also according to R-square values, this determinancy increases more as people get older.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Social politics
• social planning
• social service
• geriatrics
• nursing home

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