SERTİFİKASYON YOĞUNLUĞU VE ULUSAL LOJİSTİK PERFORMANSI: ISO YÖNETİM SİSTEMİ STANDARTLARI VE DÜNYA BANKASI LOJİSTİK PERFORMANS ENDEKSİ ÜZERİNE ÜLKELER ARASI BİR ANALİZ

Öz

İki değişkenli bir korelasyondan çıkarılabilecek sonucun aksine; gelir ve kurumsal kapasite değişkenleri kontrol edildiğinde, ISO sertifikasyon yoğunluğu, ulusal lojistik performansı açısından güvenilir ve bağımsız bir öngörücü değildir. Bu iddiayı değerlendirmek amacıyla, 127 ülkeye ait verileri kullanarak Dünya Bankası'nın 2023 Lojistik Performans Endeksi'ni (LPI), 2022 ISO Yönetim Sistemi Standardı Sertifikasyonları Anketi sonuçları ve Dünya Bankası'nın kalkınma ve yönetişim verileriyle regresyon analizine tabi tuttum. Kontrol değişkenleri olmaksızın, kişi başına düşen ISO 9001 sertifikası sayısı ile LPI arasında güçlü bir ilişki bulunmaktadır (b = 0,225, p < 0,001, R² = 0,613); ancak gelir, dışa açıklık, kamu yönetimi etkinliği ve nüfus değişkenleri kontrol edildiğinde, sertifikasyon yoğunluğunun etkisi %81 oranında azalarak b = 0,042 (p = 0,0503) seviyesine gerilemekte ve kalan etki, genel kabul görmüş standartlara göre istatistiksel olarak anlamsız hale gelmektedir. Bu sonucun temkinli yorumlanmasını gerektiren iki neden daha mevcuttur. İlk olarak, hem kamu yönetimi etkinliği hem de LPI algılara dayalı veriler olduğundan, regresyon modeli değişken seçimine (spesifikasyona) duyarlıdır; nitekim kamu yönetimi etkinliği kontrol listesinden çıkarıldığında istatistiksel anlamlılık yeniden sağlanmaktadır (b = 0,064, p = 0,021). İkinci olarak, model spesifikasyon testleri, mevcut model ile aynı değişken yapısına sahip ancak iki yıllık zaman uyumsuzluğuna (gecikmeli veriye) sahip sertifikasyon verilerinin kullanıldığı model arasında istatistiksel bir fark olmadığını göstermektedir (etkileşim p = 0,22). Altı LPI boyutuna ilişkin çoklu testler için Holm düzeltmesi uygulandıktan sonra, yalnızca uluslararası sevkiyatların sertifikasyon yoğunluğu ile anlamlı bir ilişki içinde kaldığı görülmektedir (düzeltilmiş p = 0,041). 2022 ISO Anketi verilerine göre, dünya genelindeki ISO 9001 sertifikası sayısı 1.265.200 iken ISO 28000 sertifikası sayısı 521'dir; bu da yaklaşık 2.429'a 1'lik bir orana karşılık gelmektedir. Ayrıca, ulusal sertifikasyon kuruluşlarının raporlama süreçlerinin gönüllülük esasına dayanması nedeniyle, toplam sertifika sayıları anket dönemleri arasında önemli farklılıklar göstermektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Lojistik Performans Endeksi
• Sertifikasyon yoğunluğu
• Tedarik zinciri yönetimi standartları.

CERTIFICATION INTENSITY AND NATIONAL LOGISTICS PERFORMANCE: A CROSS-COUNTRY ANALYSIS OF ISO MANAGEMENT SYSTEM STANDARDS AND THE WORLD BANK LOGISTICS PERFORMANCE INDEX

Öz

Unlike what can be inferred from a bivariate correlation, ISO certification intensity is not a reliable independent predictor of national logistics performance in the presence of controls on income and institutional capacity. To evaluate the claim, I regress the World Bank’s 2023 Logistics Performance Index (LPI) on the 2022 ISO Survey of Management System Standard Certifications and World Bank development and governance data for 127 countries. There exists a strong relationship between per capita ISO 9001 certificates and LPI without controls (b = 0.225, p < .001, R² = .613); yet, after controlling for income, trade openness, government effectiveness, and population, the effect of certification intensity drops by 81% to b = 0.042 (p = .0503), and the residual becomes insignificant by any normal standards. There are two more reasons to interpret the result with caution. Firstly, as both government effectiveness and LPI are based on perceptions, the regression is specification sensitive, and when government effectiveness is removed from the list of controls, significance is restored (b = 0.064, p = .021). Secondly, specification testing shows that there is no statistical difference between the current model and the same specification but using the two-year-mismatched certification (interaction p = .22). After Holm correction of multiple testing of the six LPI dimensions, only international shipments remain significantly related to certification intensity (adjusted p = .041). As per the 2022 ISO Survey, the number of ISO 9001 certificates was 1,265,200 globally in contrast to 521 ISO 28000 certificates, which gives a ratio of about 2,429 to 1; and the total numbers differ much between survey editions due to voluntary character of reports by national certification bodies.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Logistics Performance Index
• Certification intensity
• Supply chain management standards

Kaynakça

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