İHRACATA DAYALI BÜYÜME HİPOTEZİNİN TESTİ: TÜRKİYE VE YENİ GELİŞEN EKONOMİLERİN ÜZERİNE KARŞILAŞTIRMALI BİR İNCELEME

Yıl 2006, Sayı: 4, 23 - 45, 01.12.2006

Levent Kösekahyaoğlu Canan Şentürk

Öz

Bir ülkenin ihracatı ve milli gelir düzeyi arasındaki ilişki, gerek ticaret gerekse büyüme teorilerinin uzun süredir tartışılan bir konusudur. İhracat ve milli gelir arasındaki bir nedensellik ilişkisi dışa açık politikaları içe dönük politikalara kıyasla daha üstün bir konuma getireceğinden, ‘serbest ticaret’ (ihracata dayalı büyüme) ya da ‘korumacılık’ (ithal ikamesi) tezlerini savunmada bu tartışma büyük önem taşır. İhracata dayalı büyüme hipotezini test etmek amacıyla, bu çalışmada Türkiye ve yedi yeni gelişen ülke için dış ticaretle (ihracat ve ithalat) milli gelir arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisi Granger nedensellik analizi kullanılarak incelenmiştir. Çalışmadan elde edilen sonuçlar, incelenen sekiz ülkeden Arjantin, Brezilya ve Hindistan için test edilen hipotez desteklenmezken, Türkiye, Çek Cumhuriyeti, Macaristan, Polonya ve Çin örneklerinde ihracatla milli gelir arasında güçlü bir nedensellik ilişkisi olduğunu göstermektedir

Anahtar Kelimeler

İhracata dayalı büyüme, ithal ikamesi, Granger nedensellik analizi

TEST OF EXPORT LED GROWTH HYPOTHESIS: A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS ON TURKEY AND NEWLY DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

Öz

The relation between exports and national income of a country has long been a frequently debated issue in both trade and growth theory. This issue is particularly important in providing arguments for ‘free trade’ (export-led growth) or ‘protectionism’ (import substitution) as presence of any causality between exports and income would imply supremacy of outward looking policies over inward looking policies. In order to test the export-led growth hypothesis, this work examines the relation between trade (exports and imports) and income for Turkey and seven newly developing countries using Granger causality analysis. Our results suggest that the export-led growth hypothesis is not supported only in cases of Argentina, and Brazil while there is a strong causality running from exports to growth for Turkey, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, India and China

Anahtar Kelimeler

Export-led growth, import substitution, Granger Causality Analysis

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