Ticari Dışa Açıklık-Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi Üzerine Bir Analiz: Türkiye İçin Ampirik Bir Kanıt

Öz

Ticari dışa açıklık ile ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişkinin araştırılması uzun bir süredir tartışma konusu olarak sürmektedir. Bu çalışma 1970-2018 döneminde Türkiye ekonomisi için ticari dışa açıklık-ekonomik büyüme ilişkisini analiz etme amacını taşır. Değişkenlerin durağanlık analizinde ADF ve PP birim kök testleri kullanılmaktadır. Sonuçlar değişkenlerin birinci farkı alındığında durağan olduğunu gösterir. Eşbütünleşme anlizi için Hatemi J- Irandoust saklı eşbütünleşme tekniği tercih edilir. Bulgulara göre ticari dışa açıklık + bileşeni ile ekonomik büyüme + bileşeni arasında bir asimetrik eşbütünleşme söz konusudur. Çalışmada uzun dönem tahminlerinde FMOLS tahmincisi kullanılır. Uzun dönem tahminleri ticari dışa açıklık + bileşeni ile ekonomik büyüme + bileşeni arasında pozitif bir ilişkiye işaret etmektedir. Nedensellik bulgularına göre ticari dışa açıklık + bileşeni ile ekonomik büyüme + bileşeni arasında iki yönlü bir nedensellik söz konusudur. Ampirik bulgular Türkiye için önemli politika önerileri sunabilecektir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Ticari Dışa Açıklık
• Ekonomik Büyüme
• Saklı Eşbütünleşme Analizi
• Asimetrik Nedensellik
• FMOLS

An Analysis of the Trade Openness-Economic Growth Link: An Empirical Evidence For Turkey

Öz

The research of the relationship between trade openness and economic growth has been a topic of discussion for a long time. This study aims to analyze the trade openness-economic growth link for the Turkish economy in the period 1970-2018. ADF and PP unit root tests are used in the stationarity analysis of the variables. The results show that the variables are stationary when the first difference is taken. For cointegration analysis, Hatemi J-Irandoust hidden cointegration technique is preferred. According to the findings, there is an asymmetric cointegration between trade openness + component and economic growth + component. FMOLS estimator is used for long-term estimations in the study. Long-term forecasts indicate a positive relationship between trade openness + component and economic growth + component. According to the causality findings, there is a two-way causality between trade openness + component and economic growth + component. Empirical findings will be able to offer important policy recommendations for Turkey.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Trade Openness
• Economic Growth
• Hidden Cointegration Analysis
• Asymmetric Causality
• FMOLS

Kaynakça

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