Dijital Teknolojilerin ve Merkez Bankası Dijital Parasının Türk Vergi Sistemine Potansiyel Etkileri

Öz

Bu çalışma, Merkez Bankası Dijital Parası (CBDC) ve dijital ödeme sistemlerinin Türk vergi sistemi üzerindeki potansiyel etkilerini analiz etmektedir. Araştırma, dijitalleşmenin vergi kayıp ve kaçaklarını azaltma kapasitesini hem teknik hem de davranışsal boyutlarıyla ele almaktadır. Çalışma kapsamında vergi uyumu, rasyonel caydırıcılık yaklaşımı ile güven temelli uyum çerçevesinde değerlendirilmiştir. Bulgular, dijital para altyapısının, işlem izlenebilirliğini artırarak denetim olasılığını yapısal biçimde yükselttiğini ve bu durumun rasyonel uyum davranışını güçlendirdiğini göstermektedir. Bununla birlikte, şeffaf ve öngörülebilir dijital sistemlerin devlet–vatandaş güven ilişkisini desteklemesi halinde, gönüllü uyumun da artabileceği sonucuna ulaşılmıştır. Çalışma, CBDC’nin yalnızca teknolojik bir yenilik değil, aynı zamanda vergi uyumunun kurumsal ve davranışsal temellerini dönüştürebilecek bir politika aracı olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Merkez Bankası Dijital Parası
• Türk Vergi Sistemi
• Tematik Analiz

Potential Impacts of Digital Technologies and Central Bank Digital Currency on the Turkish Tax System

Öz

This study analyzes the potential impact of Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) and digital payment systems on the Turkish tax system. The research examines the capacity of digitalization to reduce tax evasion and losses from both technical and behavioral perspectives. Tax compliance is assessed within the framework of a rational deterrence approach and a trust-based compliance framework. The findings indicate that the digital currency infrastructure structurally enhances the likelihood of auditing by increasing transaction traceability, thereby strengthening rational compliance behavior. Furthermore, it is concluded that, voluntary compliance can be increased if transparent and predictable digital systems support a state-citizen trust relationship. The study reveals that CBDC is not only a technological innovation but also a policy tool that can transform the institutional and behavioral grounds for the tax compliance.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Central Bank Digital Currency
• Turkish Tax System
• Thematic Analysis

Kaynakça

1. Allingham, M. G., ve Sandmo, A. (1972). Income tax evasion: A theoretical analysis. Journal of Public Economics, 1(3–4), 323–338.
2. Andreoni, J., Erard, B., ve Feinstein, J. (1998). Tax compliance. Journal of Economic Literature, 36(2), 818–860.
3. Auer, R., Frost, J., Gambacorta, L., Monnet, C., Rice, T., ve Shin, H. S. (2022). Central bank digital currencies: Motives, economic implications, and the research frontier. Annual Review of Economics, 14, 697–721.
4. Auer, R., ve Böhme, R. (2020). The technology of retail central bank digital currency. BIS Quarterly Review, March, 15 (1), 85–100.
5. Bank for International Settlements. (2020). Central bank digital currencies: Foundational principles and core features. Basel.
6. Bank for International Settlements. (2023). CBDC implementation progress report. Basel: BIS.
7. Bank of Canada, European Central Bank, Bank of Japan, Sveriges Riksbank, Swiss National Bank, Bank of England, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System ve Bank for International Settlements. (2020). Central bank digital currencies: Foundational principles and core features. Basel: BIS.
8. Bank of England. (2021). Central Bank Digital Currency: Opportunities, challenges and design. London. Bankalararası Kart Merkezi. (2023). Kartlı ödeme sistemleri istatistikleri 2023. İstanbul: BKM.

9. Barrdear, J., ve Kumhof, M. (2016). The macroeconomics of central bank issued digital currencies (Staff Working Paper No. 605). Bank of England.
10. Bech, M. L., ve Garratt, R. (2017). Central bank cryptocurrencies. BIS Quarterly Review, September.
11. Bruno, P., Denecker, O., ve Niederkorn, M. (2020). The accelerating winds of change in global payments: The 2020 McKinsey global payments report. McKinsey and Company.
12. Chan, S. (2023). China’s central bank digital currency: Impact and policy implications. China: An International Journal, 21(3), 141–157.
13. Cullen, R. (2001). Addressing the digital divide. Online Information Review, 25(5), 311–320.
14. Durdu, C. B. (2025). Central bank digital currencies: Implications for the Turkish lira. Journal of Economic Policy Analysis, 10(2), 630–650.
15. Durdu, M. (2025). Central Bank Digital Currencies: Implications for the Turkish Lira. Ege Academic Review, 25(4), 641-656.
16. Engert, W., ve Fung, B. S. C. (2017). Central bank digital currency: Motivations and implications (Bank of Canada Staff Discussion Paper No. 2017-16). Bank of Canada.
17. European Central Bank. (2020). Report on a digital euro. Frankfurt.
18. Eurostat. (2024). Households with internet access (isoc_ci_in_h). European Commission.
19. Gangodawilage, D., Madurapperuma, W., ve Aluthge, C. (2021). Use of technology to manage tax compliance behavior of entrepreneurs in the digital economy. International Journal of Scientific and Research Publications, 11(3), 366–370.
20. Graham, F. D. (1940). The primary functions of money and their consummation in monetary policy. American Economic Review, 30(1), 1–16.
21. International Monetary Fund. (2020). Central Bank Digital Currencies: General Purposes, Risks, and Design. Washington, DC.
22. International Monetary Fund. (2022). The Bahamas: Staff report for the 2022 Article IV consultation (Country Report No. 22/131). Washington, DC: IMF.
23. International Monetary Fund. (2024). Central bank digital currencies: Global update and fiscal implications. Washington, DC: IMF.
24. Kirchler, E. (2007). The economic psychology of tax behaviour. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
25. Kirchler, E., Hoelzl, E., ve Wahl, I. (2008). Enforced versus voluntary tax compliance: The “Slippery slope” framework. Journal of Economic Psychology, 29(2), 210–225.
26. Kosse, A., ve Mattei, I. (2023). Making headway: Results of the 2022 BIS survey on central bank digital currencies and crypto (BIS Papers). Basel: BIS.
27. Kumar, A. (2022). A report card on China’s central bank digital currency: The e-CNY. Econographics Blog. Küçükkıralı, M., & Afşar, M. (2022). Potential effects of central bank digital currency in Turkey: An assessment with SWOT analysis. Journal of Financial Research and Studies, 14(3), 45–62.
28. Kwon, O., Lee, S., ve Park, J. (2022). Central bank digital currency, tax evasion, and inflation tax. Economic Inquiry, 60(4), 1497–1519.
29. Laidler, D. (1969). The definition of money: Theoretical and empirical problems. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 1(3), 508–525.
30. Merriam, S. B. (2009). Qualitative research: A guide to design and implementation. San Francisco: John Wiley ve Sons.
31. Nolting, C., Heinz, G., ve Köhling, S. (2020). Central bank digital currencies: Money reinvented. Frankfurt: Deutsche Bank Wealth Management.
32. OECD. (2022). OECD/INFE toolkit for measuring digital financial literacy and financial consumer protection. Paris: OECD Publishing.
33. OECD. (2023). Tax administration 3.0: The digital transformation of tax administration. Paris: OECD Publishing.
34. Ren, D., Guo, H., ve Jiang, T. (2023). Managed anonymity of CBDC, social welfare and taxation: A new monetarist perspective. Applied Economics, 55(42), 4990–5011.
35. Saraç, Ö. (2023). Kripto varlıklardan mali sistemlere yönelen meydan okumalar ve CBDC’lerle gelen karşılıklar. İçinde A. Özen (Ed.), Dijital dönüşüm ve değişen uygulamalar (ss. 207–234). Efe Akademi Yayıncılık.
36. Scarcella, L. (2020). Adopting a central bank digital currency: A tax policy perspective. Afronomicslaw, 2.
37. Scarcella, L. (2021). The implications of adopting a European Central Bank digital currency: A tax policy perspective. EC Tax Review, 30(4), 1–10.
38. Sveriges Riksbank. (2017). The Riksbank’s e-krona project. Stockholm: Riksbank.
39. Sveriges Riksbank. (2020). Monetary policy report: November 2020. Stockholm: Riksbank.
40. Tan, B. (2023). Central bank digital currency adoption: A two-sided model. SSRN Electronic Journal. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4443820
41. Tracy, S. J. (2024). Qualitative research methods: Collecting evidence, crafting analysis, communicating impact. Hoboken: Wiley.
42. Türkiye Bankalar Birliği. (2023). Dijital bankacılık istatistikleri raporu. İstanbul: TBB.
43. Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası. (2022). Dijital Türk Lirası birinci faz değerlendirme raporu. Ankara: TCMB.
44. Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası. (2023). Dijital Türk Lirası ikinci faz ilerleme raporu. Ankara: TCMB.
45. Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası. (2023). Ödeme sistemleri istatistikleri. Ankara: TCMB.
46. Türkiye İstatistik Kurumu. (2025). Hanehalkı Bilişim Teknolojileri Kullanım Araştırması. Ankara: TÜİK.
47. Ulun, I. (2025). A bibliometric and content analysis of central bank digital currency research: Implications for Turkey. Economies, 13(10), 303.
48. Williamson, S. (2022). Central bank digital currency: Welfare and policy implications. Journal of Political Economy, 130(11), 2829–2861.
49. World Bank. (2022). Financial Consumer Protection and Digital Financial Inclusion Report. Washington, DC.
50. World Bank. (2023). Digital public infrastructure and financial inclusion. Washington, DC: World Bank.