Predicting Present and Future Distribution Ranges of an Endemic Flea Beetle, Psylliodes anatolicus Gök and Çilbiroğlu 2004 (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae) in Türkiye

Öz

This study aimed to construct species distribution models (SDMs) to predict present and future (2050 and 2070) potential distribution ranges of the endemic leaf beetle Psylliodes anatolicus Gök and Çilbiroğlu, 2004 under different climate change scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5). The distribution records were gathered from the related literature and unpublished data of the authors. SDMs were constructed by the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) method using the bioclimatic variables of Community Climate System Model 4 (CCSM4). As a result of this study, the most effective bioclimatic factors determining the distribution of species were isothermality, temperature seasonality, and mean temperature of the wettest quarter. The SDM conducted for the present distribution showed that the species may occur in large parts of the Aegean and Mediterranean Regions of Türkiye, beyond the known records. The SDMs for 2050 and 2070 suggest that the range of the species will shrink considerably or go extinct totally in the next 50 years, probably due to the changing climate. In conclusion, this study revealed that changing climate threatens the endemic members of Anatolian biodiversity, especially the endemic species living in mountain ecosystems.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Species distribution modeling
• Maxent
• Bioclimatic variables
• Niche
• Extinction

Endemik Yaprak Böceği, Psylliodes anatolicus Gök ve Çilbiroğlu 2004'un (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae) Türkiye'deki Şimdiki ve Gelecekteki Dağılış Alanının Tahmin Edilmesi

Öz

Çalışmada, endemik yaprak böceği Psylliodes anatolicus Gök ve Çilbiroğlu, 2004’nın günümüz ve farklı iklim değişikliği senaryolarına (Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 ve 8.5) göre gelecekteki (2050 ve 2070) potansiyel yayılış alanlarının tahmin edilmesi için tür dağılım modellerinin yapılması amaçlanmıştır. Türün dağılış kayıtları ilgili literatür ve yazarların yayınlanmamış kayıtlarından derlenmiştir. Türün günümüz ve gelecekteki dağılışları Community Climate System Model 4 (CCSM4) iklim değişikliği senaryolarına göre maksimum entropi (MaxEnt) metodu kullanılarak tahmin edilmiştir. Çalışmanın sonucunda, izotermallik, en nemli çeyreğin ortalama sıcaklığı ve mevsimsel sıcaklık türün dağılışını belirleyen en etkili biyoiklimsel faktörler olarak bulunmuştur. Günümüz dağılış modeli, bilinen yayılış alanının aksine, türün Ege ve Akdeniz bölgelerinin büyük bir bölümünde bulunabileceğini ortaya koymuştur. Gelecek dağılış modelleri ise, türün dağılış alanının iklim değişikliği nedeniyle 2050 ve 2070 dönemlerinde oldukça daralacağını veya hatta gelecek 50 yıl içinde neslinin tükenebileceğine işaret etmiştir. Bu çalışma değişen iklime bağlı olarak, dağ ekosistemlerinde yaşayan endemik türlerin başta olmak üzere, tüm Anadolu endemik biyoçeşitliliğinin tehdit altında olduğuna işaret etmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Tür dağılım modellemesi
• Maxent
• Biyoiklimsel değişkenler
• Niş
• Nesli tükenme

Kaynakça

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