Paranın Miktar Teorisi ve Türkiye'de Geçerliliği

Yıl 2011, Cilt: 16 Sayı: 3, 87 - 115, 01.09.2011

  Doç.dr.macide Çiçek

Öz

Anahtar Kelimeler

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PARANIN MİKTAR TEORİSİ VE TÜRKİYE’DE GEÇERLİLİĞİ

Öz

Bu çalışmada Miktar Teorisi önce tarihsel açıdan ele alınmış, daha sonra Türkiye’de geçerliliği 1987Q1-2007Q3 dönemine ait M2 para arzı, nominal faiz oranı, GSYİH deflatörü ve reel GSYİH serileri üzerine yapılan birim kök, Johansen eşbütünleşme ve Granger nedensellik testleri aracılığıyla test edilmiştir. Test sonuçları Miktar Teorisinin ima ettiği para arzının dışsallığı ve paranın yansızlığı hipotezlerini reddetmiş, para arzı ve enflasyon arasında çift yönlü nedensellik ilişkisi bulunduğunu göstermiştir. Enflasyonun para arzı üzerindeki etkisi, para arzının fiyatların uzun dönem gelişimi açısından içsel olduğu anlamına gelmektedir. Öte yandan, paranın yansızlığı hipotezine zıt olarak, para arzı reel GSYİH üzerinde bir etkiye sahip görünmektedir. Reel GSYİH, ayrıca faiz oranı ve enflasyondan da etkilenmektedir. Fakat o, değişkenler arasında yalnızca faiz oranını belirlemektedir. Faiz oranı ise para arzını, para arzı da reel geliri etkilemektedir. Bu bulgular para ve reel gelirin faiz oranı aracılığıyla birlikte hareket ettiğine işaret etmektedir

Anahtar Kelimeler

Paranın Miktar Teorisi, Para Arzının Dışsallığı, Paranın Yansızlığı, Para ve Fiyatlar, Türkiye Ekonomisi

Kaynakça

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