DÖNÜŞEN KÜRESEL NÜKLEER DÜZENE YÖNELİK YAKLAŞIMLAR: TÜRKİYE, BREZİLYA VE GÜNEY AFRİKA ÖRNEKLERİ

Öz

Uluslararası sistemde nükleer silahlanmanın çoğalmasını engellemek ve nihai olarak nükleer silahsızlanmanın gerçekleşmesini sağlamak amacıyla oluşturulan çeşitli mekanizmalar ve yapılar, devletlerin büyük çoğunlukla uyum sağladığı küresel bir nükleer düzenin oluşmasına yol açmıştır. Ancak, son dönemde küresel sistemde yaşanan gelişmelere ve birtakım unsurlara bağlı olarak bu düzenin zayıfladığı düşünülmektedir. Bu çalışmada, nükleer silaha sahip olmayan devletlerin söz konusu küresel düzene yönelik duruşları ve yaklaşımları incelenmiştir. Çalışmada, ilk olarak, düzen ve nükleer düzen kavramları açıklanmıştır. Daha sonra nükleer silaha sahip olmayan devletlerin mevcut nükleer düzene yönelik bakış açıları üç devlet üzerinden ele alınmıştır. Çalışmada örnek olarak incelenecek olan bu devletler Türkiye, Brezilya ve Güney Afrika’dır. Çalışmada, nükleer düzenin risk altında olduğu ve nükleer silaha sahip olmayan bu devletlerin her ne kadar benzer kategoride yer almış olsalar da zayıflayan nükleer düzene ve bu düzeni oluşturan yapılara karşı yaklaşımlarında nükleer tecrübelerine, beklentilerine ve güvenlik anlayışlarına bağlı olarak çeşitli farklılıklar görüldüğü sonucuna varılmıştır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• uluslararası nükleer düzen
• nükleer silahsızlanma
• yükselen güçler
• uluslararası güvenlik
• nükleer silahlar

Approaches to the Transforming Global Nuclear Order: The Cases of Turkey, Brazil and South Africa

Öz

Various mechanisms and structures established in the international system to curb the spread of nuclear weapons and in the end to ensure the realization of nuclear disarmament have led to the formation of a global nuclear order, in which states mostly adapt. However, it is considered that this order has weakened due to recent developments and some factors in the global system. In this study, the postures and approaches of the non-nuclear weapon states are examined. In the study, firstly the concepts of order and nuclear order are explained. Then, the approaches of non-nuclear weapon states toward the current nuclear order are discussed over three states. These states, which will be examined as cases in the study, are Turkey, Brazil, and South Africa. In this study, it is concluded that the nuclear order is at risk, and although these states that do not have nuclear weapons are in a similar category, there are various differences in their approaches to the weakening nuclear order and the arrangements that make up this order, depending on their nuclear experience, expectations, and security understandings.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• international nuclear order
• nuclear disarmament
• rising powers
• international security
• nuclear weapons

Kaynakça

1. Akkuyu’da nükleer santral kuruluyor. (2010, Temmuz 21). Cumhuriyet Gazetesi. https://www.cumhuriyet.com.tr/haber/akkuyuda-nukleer-santral-kuruluyor-164462 Ambassador Jerry Matjila: Briefing of Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons ahead of 2020 Review Conference. (2020, Şubat 26). South African Government. https://www.gov.za/speeches/non-proliferation-27-feb-2020-0000
2. Anthony, I. (2010, Haziran 11). The end of deference: Iran, Brazil and Turkey and the Nuclear Fuel Swap (ARI). The Elcano Royal Institute. https://www.realinstitutoelcano.org/en/analyses/the-end-of-deference-iran-brazil-and-turkey-and-the-nuclear-fuel-swap-ari/
3. Arbatov, A. (2019). Mad momentum redux? The rise and fall of nuclear arms control. Survival, 61(3), 7-38.
4. Bakan Dönmez duyurdu: Akkuyu’ya ilk nükleer yakıt 27 Nisan’da gelecek. (2023, Mart 29). Hürriyet Gazetesi. https://www.hurriyet.com.tr/ekonomi/bakan-donmez-duyurdu-akkuyuya-ilk-nukleer-yakit-27-nisanda-gelecek-42242485
5. Booth, K. & Wheeler, N. J. (2008). Rethinking the security dilemma. Unpublished paper, Aberystwith University, UK.
6. Brazil. (2023, Şubat 02). ICAN. https://www.icanw.org/brazil?locale=en
7. Brazil. (2022). OPANAL. https://www.opanal.org/en/brazil/
8. Cirincione, J. (2014, Ağustos 18). A brief history of the Brazilian nuclear program. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. https://carnegieendowment.org/2004/08/18/brief-history-of-brazilian-nuclear-program-pub-15688

9. Country Nuclear Power Profiles: Brazil. (2021). IAEA. https://cnpp.iaea.org/countryprofiles/Brazil/Brazil.htm
10. Country Nuclear Power Profiles: Turkey. (2022). International Atomic Energy Agency. https://cnpp.iaea.org/countryprofiles/Turkey/Turkey.htm
11. Cumhurbaşkanı Erdoğan: Tüm dünya nükleer silahlardan temizlenmeli. (2018, Mayıs 22). TRT Haber. https://www.trthaber.com/haber/gundem/cumhurbaskani-erdogan-tum-dunya-nukleer-silahlardan-temizlenmeli-366458.html
12. Davutoğlu. (2013, Mart 21). Zero Problems in a New Era / Republic of Türkiye Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Republic of Turkiye Ministry of Foreign Affairs. https://www.mfa.gov.tr/zero-problems-in-a-new-era.en.mfa
13. Dalton, T., Kassenova, T., William, L. (Ed.). (2016). Perspectives on the evolving nuclear order. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
14. de Almeida Silva, A. R., de Moura, J. A. A. (2016). The Brazilian Navy’s nuclear-powered submarine program. The Nonproliferation Review, 23(5-6), 617-633.
15. de Queiroz Duarte, S. (2016). Brazil and the nonproliferation regime: A historical perspective. The Nonproliferation Review, 23(5-6), 545-558.
16. de Santana Carvalho, J. L. (2006). Ending Brazil’s nuclear weapons program. Arms Control Today, 36(2), 51-52.
17. de Villiers, J. W., Jardine, R., Reiss, M. (1993). Why South Africa gave up the bomb. Foreign Affairs, 72(5), 98-109.
18. Erdoğan: Bizde nükleer başlıklı füzenin olmamasını kabul etmiyorum. (2019, Eylül 4). Euronews. https://tr.euronews.com/2019/09/04/erdogan-birilerinin-elinde-nukleer-baslikl-fuze-var-ama-benim-elimde-olmasin-bunu-kabul-et
19. Fischer, D. (1997). History of the International Atomic Energy Agency the first forty years. International Atomic Energy Agency.
20. Foucault, M. (1994). The order of things: An archaeology of the human sciences. Vintage Books.
21. Friedman, U. (2017, Eylül 9). Why one president gave up his country’s nukes. The Atlantic. https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2017/09/north-korea-south-africa/539265/
22. Gerber, L. G. (1982). The Baruch Plan and the origins of the cold war. Diplomatic History, 6(1), 69-95.
23. Gibbons, R. D. (2019). The future of the nuclear order. Arms Control Today, 49(3), 12-16.
24. Gürzel, A. G. & Ersoy, E. (2012). Turkey and Iran’s nuclear program. Middle East Policy, 19(1), 37-50.
25. Horsburgh, N. (2015). China and global nuclear order: From estrangement to active engagement. Oxford University Press.
26. Jenkins, B. (2020, Haziran 16). A farewell to the Open Skies Treaty, and an era of imaginative thinking. The Brookings Institution. https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2020/06/16/a-farewell-to-the-open-skies-treaty-and-an-era-of-imaginative-thinking/
27. Kassenova, T. (2015). Brazil and the global nuclear order. O. Stuenkel, M. M. Taylor (Ed.), Brazil on the Global Stage: Power, Ideas, and the Liberal International Order içinde (117-142. ss.), Palgrave Macmillan US.
28. Keller, B. (1993, Mart 25). South Africa says it built 6 atom bombs - The New York Times. The New York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/1993/03/25/world/south-africa-says-it-built-6-atom-bombs.html
29. Kibaroğlu, M. (1997). Turkey’s quest for peaceful nuclear power. Nonproliferation Review, 4(3), 33-44.
30. Knopf, J. W. (2022). Not by NPT alone: The future of the global nuclear order. Contemporary Security Policy, 43(1), 186-212.
31. Kristensen, H. M. & Korda, M. (2023, Ocak 16). Nuclear Notebook: United States nuclear weapons, 2023. Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. https://thebulletin.org/premium/2023-01/nuclear-notebook-united-states-nuclear-weapons-2023/
32. Kütükçüoğlu, A. (2016, Aralık 18). Türkiye’nin geçmişteki nükleer enerji deneyimleri. IAEA. http://www.iaea.org/inis/collection/NCLCollectionStore/_Public/29/033/29033638.pdf
33. McCgwire, M. (2005). The rise and fall of the NPT: An opportunity for Britain. International Affairs (Royal Institute of International Affairs 1944-), 81(1), 115-140.
34. Miller, S. E. (2019). The rise and decline of global nuclear order? S. E. Miller, R. Legvold, L. Freedman (Ed.), Meeting the Challenges of the New Nuclear Age: Nuclear Weapons in a Changing Global Order içinde (1-27. ss.), American Academy of Arts and Sciences.
35. Miller, S. E. (2020). A nuclear world transformed: The rise of multilateral disorder. Daedalus, 149(2), 17-36.
36. Müller, H. (2017). The nuclear non-proliferation treaty in Jeopardy? Internal divisions and the impact of world politics. The International Spectator, 52(1), 12-27.
37. Nayan, R. (2018). Nuclear India and the global nuclear order. Strategic Analysis, 42(3), 231-243. Nuclear Power in Brazil | Brasil Nuclear Energy. (2022). World Nuclear Association. https://world-nuclear.org/information-library/country-profiles/countries-a-f/brazil.aspx
38. Nuclear Power in South Africa | South African Nuclear Energy. (2022). World Nuclear Association. https://world-nuclear.org/information-library/country-profiles/countries-o-s/south-africa.aspx
39. Onderco, M. & Van Wyk, A. M. (2019). Birth of a norm champion: How South Africa came to support the NPT’s indefinite extension. The Nonproliferation Review, 26(1-2), 23-41.
40. Pabian, F. V. (2015). The South African denuclearization exemplar. The Nonproliferation Review, 22(1), 27-52.
41. Patti, C. (2015). The origins of the Brazilian nuclear programme, 1951-1955. Cold War History, 15(3), 353-373.
42. Pant, H. V. & Biswas, A. (2018). Rising powers and the global nuclear order: A structural study of India’s integration. Third World Quarterly, 39(12), 2240-2254.
43. Polakow-Suransky, S. (2010). The unspoken alliance: Israel’s secret relationship with apartheid South Africa. Pantheon Books.
44. Pretorius, J. (2013). Nuclear politics of Denial: South Africa and the additional protocol. International Negotiation, 18(3), 379-399.
45. Pretorius, J. & Sauer, T. (2019, Eylül 6). Is it time to ditch the NPT? Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. https://thebulletin.org/2019/09/is-it-time-to-ditch-the-npt/
46. Pretorius, J. & Sauer, T. (2021). Ditch the NPT. Survival, 63(4), 103-124.
47. Projenin Tarihçesi Akkuyu Nükleer A.Ş. (2022, Eylül 23). Akkuyu Nükleer Rosatom. http://www.akkunpp.com/projenin-tarihcesi
48. Rauf, T. (2000). An unequivocal success? Implications of the NPT review conference. Arms Control Association. https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2000-07/features/unequivocal-success-implications-npt-review-conference
49. Rauf, T. & Johnson, R. (1995). After the NPT’s indefinite extension: The Future of the global nonproliferation regime. The Nonproliferation Review, 3(1), 28-42.
50. Remarks By President Barack Obama In Prague As Delivered. (2009, Nisan 5). The White House President Barrack Obama. https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/the-press-office/remarks-president-barack-obama-prague-delivered
51. Rosa, L. P. (2006). History of nuclear power in Brazil. Energy & Environment, 17(3), 485-495.
52. South Africa: From nuclear armed state to disarmament hero. (2019, Şubat 25). ICAN. https://www.icanw.org/south_africa_from_nuclear_armed_state_to_disarmament_hero?locale=en
53. Spektor, M., Kassenova, T., Florentino, L. P. (2019). Brazil’s nuclear posture under Bolsonaro. Arms Control Today, 49(7), 12-17.
54. Statement by the Republic of Türkiye 10th NPT Review Conference (2022, Ağustos 3). Reaching Critical Will. https://reachingcriticalwill.org/images/documents/Disarmament-fora/npt/revcon2022/statements/3Aug_Turkey.pdf
55. Statement on the conclusion of the 10th Review Conference of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, United Nations, New York. (2022, Ağustos 27). International Relations and Cooperations: Republic of South Africa. http://www.dirco.gov.za/docs/2022/unsc0827.htm
56. Status List. (2022, Aralık 31). International Atomic Energy Agency. https://www.iaea.org/sites/default/files/20/01/sg-ap-status.pdf
57. Stein, A. (2019, Eylül 12). Erdogan doesn’t want nukes, He wants to blow up the system. War on the Rocks. https://warontherocks.com/2019/09/erdogan-doesnt-want-nukes-he-wants-to-blow-up-the-system/
58. Şengül, E. (2021, Mart 10). Akkuyu nuke plant to meet 10% of Turkey’s power demand. Anadolu Agency. https://www.aa.com.tr/en/energy/nuclear/akkuyu-nuke-plant-to-meet-10-of-turkeys-power-demand/32105
59. Tannenwald, N. (2018). The great unraveling: The future of the nuclear normative order. N. Tannenwald, J. M. Acton (Ed.), Meeting the Challenges of the New Nuclear Age: Emerging Risks and Declining Norms in the Age of Technological Innovation and Changing Nuclear Doctrines içinde (6-31. ss.), American Academy of Arts and Sciences.
60. Tenth Review Conference of the Treaty on the Nonproliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) South African National Statement for The General Debate. (2022, Ağustos 2). Reaching Critical Will. https://reachingcriticalwill.org/images/documents/Disarmament-fora/npt/revcon2022/statements/2Aug_SouthAfrica.pdf
61. Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT). (2023, Ocak 10). United Nations Office For Disarmament Affairs. https://www.un.org/disarmament/wmd/nuclear/npt/text
62. Turkey’s energy min: Nuclear power improves diversification plan. (2023, Ocak 10). Anadolu Agency. https://www.aa.com.tr/en/turkey/turkeys-energy-min-nuclear-power-improves-diversification-plan/182709
63. Türkiye: Ratification of Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT). (2021). United Nations Office for Disarmament Affairs. https://treaties.unoda.org/a/npt/turkey/RAT/london
64. Udum, Ş. (2010). Turkey’s nuclear comeback. The Nonproliferation Review, 17(2), 365-377.
65. Varlı, A. (2014, Eylül 23). Alman gazetesinden “Türkiye atom bombası yapıyor” iddiası. Hürriyet Gazetesi. https://www.hurriyet.com.tr/dunya/alman-gazetesinden-turkiye-atom-bombasi-yapiyor-iddiasi-27254898
66. Walker, W. (2000). Nuclear order and disorder. International Affairs (Royal Institute of International Affairs 1944-), 76(4), 703-724.