A Spatial Impact Study on Domestic Savings Rates: EU-15 Countries and Türkiye

Yıl 2025, Cilt: 33 Sayı: 64, 399 - 417, 26.04.2025

Dilara Ayla

https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2025.02.17

Öz

The study, employing the Spatial Durbin Error Model (SDEM), focuses on a comparative analysis of two periods, distinguished by the 2008 global financial crisis. In this context, findings from the 1987-2008 period showed that government expenditures, income inequality, and increases in the dependent population reduced domestic savings. It has been demonstrated that increases in net migration and trade openness levels have a positive impact on savings. The spatial impact results of this period were positive for openness and the dependent population ratio. According to the results from 2009 to 2021, the variables with statistical significance were identified as government expenditures and openness. The spatial effects during the 2009-2021 period were in the same direction as those in the first period, regarding the dependent population. In addition, the increases in government expenditures of neighbouring countries in the post-crisis period led to a rise in savings rates.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Savings , Income Distribution , Migration , Openness

Yurtiçi Tasarruf Oranları Üzerine Bir Mekânsal Etki İncelemesi: AB-15 Ülkeleri ve Türkiye

Öz

Mekânsal Durbin Hata Modelinin (SDEM) kullanıldığı çalışmada, 2008 küresel krizi baz alınarak ayrıştırılan iki döneme ait bir karşılaştırma analizi üzerinde odaklanılmıştır. Bu kapsamda ulaşılan 1987-2008 dönemine ait bulgular, kamu harcamaları, gelir eşitsizliği ve bağımlı nüfus artışlarının yurtiçi tasarrufları azalttığını; net göç ve ticari dışa açıklık düzeyi artışlarının ise tasarruflar üzerinde pozitif yönlü bir etki gücüne sahip olduğunu göstermiştir. Bu dönemin mekânsal etki sonuçları ise dışa açıklık ve bağımlı nüfus oranı için pozitif olarak bulunmuştur. 2009-2021 dönemi sonuçlarına göre, istatistiki anlamlılığa sahip olan değişkenler kamu harcamaları ve dışa açıklık olarak belirlenmiştir. 2009-2021 dönemindeki mekânsal etkiler ise bağımlı nüfus açısından ilk dönem ile aynı yönde gerçekleşmiştir. Ayrıca kriz sonrası dönemde komşu ülkelerin kamu harcamaları oranında yaşanan artışlar tasarruf oranlarının artmasına neden oluşturmuştur.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Tasarruf , Gelir Dağılımı , Göç , Dışa Açıklık

Kaynakça

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