The Impact of Selected Fiscal Policy Instruments on Economic Complexity: A Comparative Analysis Across Country Income Groups

Yıl 2025, Cilt: 33 Sayı: 66, 601 - 626

Yusuf Ünsal

Öz

In this study, the impact of fiscal policy on the economic complexity index through tax burden and government expenditures is analysed by examining the data of 104 countries divided into three different country groups between 1996 and 2022. In this context, cointegration, causality and Augmented Mean Group methods were used in the analysis. The Augmented Mean Group results show that the tax burden has a negative and statistically significant effect on economic complexity only in high-income countries. There is no significant relationship between tax burden and economic complexity in other income groups. Government expenditures do not show a significant effect in all income groups. Causality analysis reveals that tax burden significantly negatively affects economic complexity in high-income countries, while government expenditures have a considerable positive impact. On the other hand, there is no statistically significant causality between the variables on economic complexity in high-middle and low-middle income countries.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Economic Complexity , Fiscal Policy , Income Levels , AMG

Seçilmiş Maliye Politikası Araçlarının Ekonomik Karmaşıklık Üzerindeki Etkisi: Ülke Gelir Grupları Arasında Karşılaştırmalı Bir Analiz

Öz

Bu çalışmada, maliye politikasının ekonomik karmaşıklık endeksi üzerindeki etkisi, vergi yükü ve hükümet harcamaları aracılığıyla ele alınmış ve 1996-2022 yılları arasında üç farklı ülke grubuna ayrılan 104 ülkenin verileri incelenerek analiz edilmiştir. Bu bağlamda analizlerde; eşbütünleşme, nedensellik ve Artırılmış Ortalama Grup yöntemleri kullanılmıştır. Artırılmış Ortalama Grup sonuçları, vergi yükünün yalnızca yüksek gelirli ülkelerde ekonomik karmaşıklık üzerinde negatif ve istatistiksel olarak anlamlı bir etkiye sahip olduğunu göstermektedir. Diğer gelir gruplarında ise vergi yükü ile ekonomik karmaşıklık arasında anlamlı bir ilişki tespit edilmemiştir. Hükümet harcamaları ise tüm gelir gruplarında anlamlı bir etki göstermemektedir. Nedensellik analizi ise yüksek gelirli ülkelerde vergi yükünün ekonomik karmaşıklık üzerinde negatif, hükümet harcamalarının ise pozitif yönde anlamlı etkiler yarattığını ortaya koymaktadır. Buna karşın, yüksek-orta ve düşük-orta gelirli ülkelerde her iki değişkenin de ekonomik karmaşıklık üzerinde istatistiksel olarak anlamlı bir nedenselliği bulunmamaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Ekonomik Karmaşıklık , Maliye Politikası , Gelir Düzeyleri , AMG

Kaynakça

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