ANGSTRÖM-PRESCOTT MODELİNİN POLİNOM İLE GELİŞTİRİLMESİ VE DİYARBAKIR GÜNEŞ IŞINIMI VERİLERİNE UYGULANMASI

Yıl 2019, Cilt: 7 Sayı: 1, 75 - 88, 01.03.2019

Yavuz Selim Güçlü

https://doi.org/10.15317/Scitech.2019.183

Öz

Dünyanın
en önemli enerji kaynağı güneş enerjisi, çeşitli alanlarda farklı konular
altında araştırılmaktadır. Özellikle, fosil yakıt kaynaklarının azalmasından
beri güneş enerjisinin değeri ve önemi daha da artmıştır. Güneş enerjisi ile
ilgili ilk araştırmalar 20. yüzyılın ilk çeyreğinde başlamış ve bu tür
çalışmaların ilki güneş ışınımının güneşlenme süresine karşı tahmin edildiği
çalışmadır. Bu makalenin hedefi, güneş ışınımının tahmini konusunda yeni bir
yöntem niteliğindeki polinom çözümleme (analiz) yolunu sunmak ve uygulamaktır.
Bununla birlikte, polinom çözümlemesi güneş ışınımını tahmin etmekte yetersiz
kalacağından, Polinom ile doğrusal (lineer) bir model özelliğine sahip
Angström-Prescott yaklaşımı önerilmiştir. PoLin (POlinom-LINeer) modelinin
temel ilkesi, salınımı (periyodiklik) veriden ayırmak ve daha sonra Angström-Prescott
modelini arınmış veriye uygulamaktır. Türkiye'nin Güneydoğu Anadolu bölgesi
şehirlerinden Diyarbakır kapsamında sunulan yaklaşımın sonuçları ANFIS, HarLin
ve Angström-Prescott modelleri ile karşılaştırılarak gerekli tavsiyeler
sunulmuştur. PoLin modelinin çıktıları meşhur (klasik) Angström Prescott,
HarLin ve ANFIS modellerinden daha başarılı bulunmuştur.

Anahtar Kelimeler

ANFIS, Angström-Prescott; Güneş ışınımı; Güneşlenme süresi; HarLin; Polinom

Hybrid Model for Solar Irradiation Estimation Using Polynomial and Angström-Prescott Equation

Öz

The
world’s most important energy source, solar energy, is being investigated in a
variety of areas under different fields. Especially since the decline of fossil
fuel resources, the importance of the solar energy has increased even more.
Initial researches on solar energy started in the first quarter of the 20^th
century and solar irradiation was estimated versus sunshine duration. This
study suggests similar procedure to harmonic analysis application to solar
irradiation and sunshine duration data. Basis of the methodology is combined
application of the POlynomial and classical LINear regression analysis.
Therefore, it is referred to PoLin model as a hybrid model. It isolates first
the periodicity from the daily values, and then linear regression analysis is
applied first to order stationary data. PoLin results are compared with the
classical Angström-Prescott,
HarLin, and ANFIS models. In the application, solar irradiation site is
considered from solar energy potential location in Turkey, namely, at Diyarbakır.
Estimations by PoLin model appears more successful than ANFIS, HarLin and Angström-Prescott approaches.

Anahtar Kelimeler

ANFIS, Angström-Prescott, HarLin; Polinom, Solar irradiation, Sunshine duration

Kaynakça

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