Ayçiçeğinde Üretim ve Fiyat Arasındaki İlişkinin Koyck Modeli ile Analizi

Öz

Amaç: Türkiye'de ayçiçeği üretimi ve fiyatı arasındaki ilişkinin Koyck modeli ile açıklanması amaçlanmaktadır. Tasarım/Metodoloji/Yaklaşım: Ayçiçeği üretimi ve fiyatı arasındaki ilişkiyi ortaya koymak için Dağıtılmış Gecikmeli Koyck Modeli uygulanmıştır. Bu aşamada 2000-2020 dönemine (21 yıl) ait veriler kullanılmıştır. Gecikmesi dağıtılmış modellerdeki sakıncaları gidermek için Koyck tarafından bir model geliştirilmiştir. Koyck modelinde bağımsız değişken gecikmelerinin bağımlı değişkeni belirli bir ağırlıkla etkilediği ve gecikme ağırlıklarının geometrik olarak azaldığı varsayımından hareketle, model indirgenmiş hale getirilerek regresyon denklemi tahmin edilmektedir. Bulgular: Cari yılda ayçiçeği fiyatındaki %10'luk artışın üretim miktarını bir yıl sonra %2.06, iki yıl sonra ise %1.22 artırması beklenmektedir. Sonuçlar, fiyatların gecikmeli değerlerindeki değişimin üretim üzerinde olumlu bir etkiye sahip olduğunu ve bu etkinin giderek azaldığını göstermektedir. Özgünlük/Değer: Ayçiçeği üretimi de piyasadaki ortalama fiyatın gecikmeli değerinden etkilenmektedir. Koyck modeli bu gecikmeli değerleri ortaya çıkarmak için uygun bir modeldir. Fiyat değişkeninin üretim açısından ardışık dönemlerdeki gecikmeli etkilerini ölçmek için kullanılan bu model sayesinde ayçiçeği üretimi için uygulanabilecek etkin politikalara ışık tutulabilecektir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Ayçiçeği yetiştiriciliği
• ayçiçeği pazarlaması
• Koyck modeli
• gecikmesi dağıtılmış model

The Analysis of the Relation between Production and Price of Sunflower by Koyck Model

Öz

Purpose: it is aimed to explain the relationship between sunflower production and price in Turkey with the Koyck model. Design/Methodology/Approach: Distributed Lagged Koyck Model was applied to reveal the relationship between sunflower production and price. At this stage, data for the period 2000-2020 (21 years) were used. A model was developed by Koyck in order to eliminate drawbacks in distributed lag models. Based on the assumption that the independent variable lags affect the dependent variable with a certain weight and that the lag weights decrease geometrically in the Koyck model, the regression equation is estimated by making the model reduced. Findings: The 10% increase in the sunflower price in the current year is expected to increase the production amount one year later by 2.06% and the production amount two years later by 1.22%. The results show that the change in the lagged values of prices has a positive effect on production and this effect is gradually decreasing. Originality/Value: Sunflower production is also affected by the lagged value of the average price in the market. The Koyck model is a suitable model to reveal these lagged values. Thanks to this model, which is used to measure the lagged effects of the price variable in successive periods in terms of production, it will be able to shed light on the effective policies that can be applied for sunflower production.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Sunflower growing
• sunflower marketing
• Koyck model
• distributed lag model

Kaynakça

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