Comparison of the effects of crude oil and biodiesel on selected agricultural products

Öz

Purpose: This study aims to comparatively analyze the effects of crude oil and biodiesel price shocks on the prices of selected global agricultural commodities. It investigates how biofuels, as alternative energy sources, influence agricultural markets and whether they mitigate the impact of fossil fuel volatility.

Design/Methodology/Approach: Monthly data for crude oil, biodiesel, corn, soybean, and wheat prices from 1990:01–2025:06 were obtained from the Federal Reserve Bank (FED). The nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model was employed to analyze asymmetric effects in two regression models. In this study, a two-way framework from energy to agriculture and specifically from soybeans to energy in agriculture is used.

Findings: Positive and negative price shocks yield asymmetric impacts on agricultural products. Increases in crude oil prices significantly affect soybean and wheat. Biodiesel price shocks show faster adjustment and stronger impacts. Biofuel-related crops (soybean and corn) are more sensitive to energy price shifts.

Research limitations/Implications: The study focuses only on five variables and global data. Other types of biofuels are excluded. Results may vary across countries and timeframes.

Practical implications: Encouraging biofuel production can reduce agricultural cost volatility and support energy diversification policies.

Social implications: Biofuels may enhance food security and promote rural development, especially in developing regions.

Originality/Value: This study contributes to the literature by simultaneously examining crude oil and biodiesel price dynamics using a nonlinear framework. Although related studies exist, the comparative NARDL approach applied here offers a more integrated view of energy–agriculture interactions.It offers a novel methodological approach and highlights the deepening link between energy and agricultural markets.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Agricultural products
• asymmetric effects
• biodiesel
• crude oil
• energy
• NARDL

Ham petrol ve biyodizelin seçilmiş tarım ürünleri üzerindeki etkilerinin karşılaştırılması

Öz

Amaç: Bu çalışma, ham petrol ve biyodizel fiyat şoklarının seçilmiş küresel tarımsal emtia fiyatları üzerindeki etkilerini karşılaştırmalı olarak analiz etmeyi amaçlamaktadır. Biyoyakıtların alternatif enerji kaynağı olarak tarım piyasalarını nasıl etkilediği ve fosil yakıt dalgalanmalarını hafifletip hafifletmediği araştırılmaktadır.

Tasarım/Metodoloji/Yaklaşım: 1990:01 ile 2022:07 dönemine ait ham petrol, biyodizel, mısır, soya ve buğday fiyatları verileri Federal Reserve Bank (FED) veri tabanından elde edilmiştir. Asimetrik etkileri analiz etmek için doğrusal olmayan otoregresif dağıtılmış gecikmeli (NARDL) model iki ayrı regresyonda kullanılmıştır. Bu çalışmada enerjiden tarıma ve tarımda özellikle soyadan enerjiye iki yönlü bir çerçeve kullanılmıştır.

Bulgular: Pozitif ve negatif fiyat şokları tarım ürünleri üzerinde asimetrik etkiler yaratmaktadır. Ham petrol fiyatlarındaki artışlar, soya ve buğday üzerinde anlamlı etkiler göstermektedir. biyodizel piyasasının uyum hızı, Brent piyasasıyla karşılaştırıldığında istatistiksel olarak benzer görünmektedir. Biyoyakıtla ilişkili ürünler (soya ve mısır), enerji fiyat değişimlerine karşı daha hassastır.

Araştırma sınırlamaları/etkileri: Çalışma yalnızca beş değişkene ve küresel verilere odaklanmaktadır. Diğer biyoyakıt türleri kapsam dışıdır. Sonuçlar ülkelere ve dönemlere göre değişkenlik gösterebilir.

Pratik uygulamalar: Biyoyakıt üretiminin teşvik edilmesi, tarım maliyetlerindeki dalgalanmaları azaltabilir ve enerji çeşitlendirme politikalarına katkı sağlayabilir.

Sosyal çıkarımlar: Biyoyakıtlar, özellikle gelişmekte olan bölgelerde gıda güvenliğini artırabilir ve kırsal kalkınmayı destekleyebilir.

Özgünlük/Değer: Bu çalışma, doğrusal olmayan bir çerçeve ile ham petrol ve biyodizel fiyat dinamiklerini eşzamanlı olarak inceleyerek literatüre katkı sağlamaktadır. Konuyla ilgili çalışmalar mevcut olsa da burada uygulanan karşılaştırmalı NARDL yaklaşımı, enerji ve tarım arasındaki etkileşimlere daha bütüncül bir bakış açısı sunmaktadır. Çalışma, yeni bir metodolojik yaklaşım sunmakta ve enerji ile tarım piyasaları arasındaki artan bağı vurgulamaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Tarım ürünleri
• asimetrik etkiler
• biyodizel
• ham petrol
• enerji
• NARDL

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