Bitkisel ve hayvansal üretim karbon emisyonlarını nasıl etkiler? Türkiye’den ampirik kanıtlar

Yıl 2025, Cilt: 31 Sayı: 2, 363 - 373, 19.12.2025

Nigerhan Kartal , İlyas Bayar , Mehmet Dabakoğlu , Ömer Doru

https://doi.org/10.24181/tarekoder.1739226

Öz

Amaç: Bu çalışmanın temel amacı, Türkiye’de 1980-2022 dönemine ait veriler doğrultusunda yenilenebilir enerji kullanımı, ticari açıklık, gayri safi yurt içi hâsıla ile bitkisel ve hayvansal üretimin CO2 emisyonları üzerindeki etkilerini analiz ederek, tarımsal faaliyetlerin çevresel kalite üzerindeki rolünü ortaya koymaktır.
Tasarım/Metodoloji/Yaklaşım: Çalışmada CO2 emisyonlarını etkileyen faktörleri incelemek ve modelin kısa ve uzun dönem ilişkilerini ortaya koymak için küçük örneklemlerde dahi güvenilir sonuçlar vermesiyle bilinen ARDL sınır testi yaklaşımı kullanılmıştır. Analiz sürecinde öncelikle değişkenlerin durağanlığı ADF ve PP testleri ile değerlendirilmiş, ardından uzun dönemli ilişkiler tespit edilmiştir. Modelin güvenilirliği çeşitli tanısal testler ile doğrulanmakta ve değişkenlerin CO2 emisyonu üzerindeki etkileri ortaya konulmaktadır.
Bulgular: ARDL testi sonuçları, değişkenler arasında uzun dönemli bir eşbütünleşme ilişkisi olduğunu göstermektedir. Hesaplanan uzun dönem katsayı sonuçlarına göre, yenilenebilir enerji tüketimi, bitkisel üretim ve hayvansal üretim CO2 emisyonlarını azaltıcı etkide bulunmaktadır. Buna karşılık, gayri safi yurt içi hasıla ve kentleşme CO2 emisyonlarını artıran faktörler olarak belirlenmiştir. Ticari açıklık değişkeni istatistiksel olarak anlamlı bulunmamıştır.
Özgünlük/Değer: Türkiye'de bitkisel ve hayvansal üretimin CO2 emisyonları üzerindeki etkisini ele alan çalışmaların sınırlı olduğu dikkat çekmektedir. Yenilenebilir enerji, kişi başına düşen GSYİH ve kentleşme gibi faktörlerin modele dahil edilmesi yapılacak analizler ile Türkiye’de çevre kalitesinin artırılmasına dönük gerek literatüre gerekse de politika önerileri için bir projeksiyon oluşacağı tahmin edilmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Tarımsal aktiviteler , ARDL sınır testi , çevresel kalite , yenilenebilir enerji

How do crop and livestock production affect carbon emissions? Empirical evidence from Türkiye

Öz

Purpose: The main purpose of this study is to reveal the role of agricultural activities on environmental quality by analysing the effects of renewable energy use, trade openness, gross domestic product and crop and livestock production on CO2 emissions in Türkiye for the period 1980-2022.
Design/Methodology/Approach: In the study, the ARDL bounds test approach, known for providing reliable results even in small samples, is employed to examine the factors affecting CO2 emissions and to reveal the model’s short and long-run relationships. During the analysis process, the stationarity of the variables is first evaluated with ADF and PP tests, and then long-term relationships is determined. The reliability of the model is verified with various diagnostic tests, and the effects of the variables on CO2 emissions is revealed.
Findings: The ARDL test results indicate that there is a long-run cointegration relationship between the variables. According to the calculated long-run coefficient results, renewable energy consumption, crop production and livestock production have a decreasing effect on CO2 emissions. On the other hand, gross domestic product and urbanisation are determined as factors that increase CO2 emissions.
Originality/Value: It is noteworthy that studies on the impact of crop and livestock production on CO2 emissions in Türkiye are limited. It is estimated that the inclusion of factors such as renewable energy, GDP per capita and urbanisation in the model will provide a projection for both the literature and policy recommendations for improving environmental quality in Türkiye.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Agriculture activities , ARDL bounds test , environmental quality , renewable energy

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