Financial development and agricultural productivity: Evidence from a multi-country panel

Öz

Purpose: This study examines whether aggregate financial depth is associated with agricultural labour productivity in a panel of 24 economies over the period 2000–2024.

Design/Methodology/Approach:  Agricultural labour productivity is measured by agriculture, forestry, and fishing value added per worker, while financial depth is proxied by domestic credit to the private sector as a share of GDP. GDP per capita, gross capital formation, and rural population share are included as core controls. Using World Development Indicators data, the analysis employs descriptive statistics, correlation analysis, pooled OLS with country-clustered robust standard errors, fixed-effects panel regressions, extended specifications with agriculture-related controls, and lagged robustness checks.

Findings: Agricultural labour productivity is strongly and consistently positively associated with GDP per capita. By contrast, the effect of aggregate financial depth is weaker and sensitive to specification. It is not statistically significant in the core pooled model, becomes positive and marginal or significant in some fixed-effects specifications, and weakens again in lagged robustness models. These findings suggest that broad financial deepening does not automatically translate into productivity-enhancing finance for agriculture.

Originality/Value: The study reassesses the finance–agriculture relationship in a multi-country panel and evaluates whether a standard macro-finance indicator adequately captures the type of finance that matters for agricultural productivity. By combining core models, extended specifications, and lagged robustness checks, the findings highlight the limits of aggregate financial depth as a proxy for effective rural and agricultural finance.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Agricultural labour productivity
• economic development
• financial depth
• panel data analysis
• rural finance

Finansal gelişme ve tarımsal verimlilik: Çok ülkeli panelden bulgular

Öz

Amaç: Bu çalışma, toplam finansal derinliğin tarımsal emek verimliliği ile ilişkili olup olmadığını, 2000–2024 döneminde 24 ekonomiden oluşan bir panel veri seti üzerinden incelemektedir.

Tasarım/Metodoloji/Yaklaşım: Tarımsal emek verimliliği, tarım, ormancılık ve balıkçılık sektöründe çalışan başına katma değer ile; finansal derinlik ise özel sektöre sağlanan yurtiçi kredilerin GSYH’ye oranı ile ölçülmektedir. Kişi başına gelir, gayrisafi sermaye oluşumu ve kırsal nüfus oranı temel kontrol değişkenleri olarak modele dâhil edilmiştir. Dünya Kalkınma Göstergeleri verileri kullanılarak tanımlayıcı istatistikler, korelasyon analizi, ülke bazlı küme-robust standart hatalı havuzlanmış EKK, sabit etkiler panel regresyonları, tarım ilişkili ek kontroller içeren genişletilmiş spesifikasyonlar ve gecikmeli sağlamlık analizleri uygulanmıştır

Bulgular: Tarımsal emek verimliliği kişi başına gelir ile güçlü ve istikrarlı biçimde pozitif ilişkilidir. Buna karşılık toplam finansal derinliğin etkisi daha zayıf ve model spesifikasyonuna duyarlıdır. Çekirdek havuzlanmış modelde finansal derinlik istatistiksel olarak anlamlı değildir; bazı sabit etkiler spesifikasyonlarında katsayı pozitif ve marjinal ya da anlamlı hale gelmekte, gecikmeli sağlamlık modellerinde ise yeniden zayıflamaktadır. Bu sonuçlar, geniş anlamda finansal derinleşmenin tarım için verimlilik artırıcı finansa otomatik olarak dönüşmediğine işaret etmektedir.

Özgünlük/Değer: Çalışma, finans–tarım ilişkisini çok ülkeli panel veri çerçevesinde yeniden değerlendirerek standart bir makro finans göstergesinin tarımsal verimliliği açıklamada ne ölçüde yeterli olduğunu incelemektedir. Çekirdek modelleri, genişletilmiş spesifikasyonları ve gecikmeli sağlamlık analizlerini birlikte kullanarak bulgular, toplam finansal derinliğin etkin kırsal ve tarımsal finans için sınırlı bir gösterge olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Tarımsal emek verimliliği
• ekonomik gelişme
• finansal derinlik
• panel veri analizi
• kırsal finans

Kaynakça

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