Türkiye’nin ilk iklim kanununa yönelik kamuoyu algıları, dezenformasyon, bilgi düzeyi ve destekleme niyeti analizi

Öz

Amaç: Bu çalışmanın amacı, Türkiye’de 9 Temmuz 2025’te yürürlüğe giren ilk İklim Kanunu’na yönelik kamuoyu algısını analiz etmek ve bireylerin kanunu destekleme niyetlerini belirleyen bilişsel, normatif ve bilgi temelli faktörleri ortaya koymaktır. Çalışma, iklim yasalarına verilen desteğin yalnızca çevresel duyarlılık veya iklim değişikliğine inanma düzeyiyle açıklanıp açıklanamayacağını sorgulamayı hedeflemektedir.

Tasarım/Metodoloji/Yaklaşım: Araştırma nicel bir tasarıma sahiptir. Türkiye genelinde 926 katılımcıdan çevrim içi anket yöntemiyle toplanan veriler, Kısmi En Küçük Kareler Yapısal Eşitlik Modellemesi (PLS-SEM) kullanılarak analiz edilmiştir. Modelde bilgi düzeyi, dezenformasyon algısı, güven, iklim değişikliğine inanç, toplumsal beklenti ve İklim Kanunu’nu destekleme niyeti arasındaki doğrudan ve dolaylı ilişkiler test edilmiştir.

Bulgular: Analiz sonuçları, İklim Kanunu’nu destekleme niyetinin en güçlü belirleyicisinin toplumsal beklenti olduğunu göstermektedir. Toplumsal beklenti, kanuna ilişkin bilgi düzeyi arttıkça güçlenmekte; olumsuz görüşler ve dezenformasyon algısı yükseldikçe zayıflamaktadır. Güven, iklim değişikliğine yönelik inancı güçlü biçimde şekillendirirken, iklim inancının destek niyeti üzerindeki doğrudan etkisi sınırlı kalmakta ve bu etki büyük ölçüde toplumsal beklenti üzerinden dolaylı olarak ortaya çıkmaktadır. Bulgular, rasyonel bilgi ile normatif algıların birlikte işlediğini göstermektedir.

Pratik uygulamalar: Sonuçlar, iklim politikalarının toplumsal kabulünü artırmak için teknik düzenlemelerden ziyade bilgilendirme, şeffaflık ve güven inşasına dayalı kamu iletişimi stratejilerinin önemine işaret etmektedir. Özellikle dezenformasyonla mücadeleye yönelik hedefli iletişim politikaları kritik görünmektedir. Sosyal çıkarımlar: Çalışma, iklim yasalarının toplumsal meşruiyetinin bireysel çevresel duyarlılıktan çok, toplumda oluşan ortak beklenti ve algılanan kamusal fayda üzerinden şekillendiğini ortaya koymaktadır.

Özgünlük/Değer Bu çalışma, Türkiye’nin ilk İklim Kanunu bağlamında kamuoyu desteğini ampirik olarak inceleyen ilk çalışmalardan biri olup, iklim politikalarına yönelik desteği bilgi, güven ve toplumsal beklenti etkileşimi üzerinden açıklayan bütüncül bir model sunmaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Davranışsal niyet
• iklim kanunu
• kamuoyu algısı
• Türkiye’de iklim politikaları

Etik Beyan

Malatya Turgut Özal Üniversitesi Sosyal ve Beşerî Bilimler Araştırma Etik Kurulu'nun 17.07.2025 tarih ve 37 sayılı toplantısında etik açıdan uygun bulunmuştur (E-Belge Sayı No: E-35841939-050-316517, E-Belge Tarihi: 21.07.2025).

Analysis of public perceptions, disinformation, information level, and intention to support regarding Türkiye's first climate law

Öz

Purpose: The aim of this study is to analyze public perception of Türkiye's first Climate Law, which came into effect on July 9, 2025, and to identify the cognitive, normative, and knowledge-based factors that determine individuals' intentions to support the law. The study aims to investigate whether support for climate laws can be explained solely by environmental awareness or belief in climate change.

Design/Methodology/Approach: The research has a quantitative design. Data collected from 926 participants across Türkiye via an online survey were analyzed using Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling (PLS-SEM). The model tested direct and indirect relationships between knowledge level, perception of misinformation, trust, belief in climate change, societal expectation, and intention to support the Climate Law.

Findings: The analysis results show that the strongest determinant of the intention to support the Climate Law is societal expectation. Societal expectation strengthens as the level of knowledge about the law increases; it weakens as negative opinions and perception of misinformation increase. While trust strongly shapes belief in climate change, the direct impact of climate belief on support intention remains limited and largely emerges indirectly through societal expectations. The findings demonstrate that rational information and normative perceptions operate together.

Practical applications: The results point to the importance of public communication strategies based on information, transparency, and trust-building, rather than technical regulations, in increasing societal acceptance of climate policies. Targeted communication policies aimed at combating disinformation appear particularly critical. Social implications: The study reveals that the societal legitimacy of climate laws is shaped more by shared societal expectations and perceived public benefit than by individual environmental sensitivity.

Originality/Value: This study is one of the first to empirically examine public support in the context of Türkiye's first Climate Law, offering a holistic model that explains support for climate policies through the interaction of information, trust, and societal expectations.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Behavioral intention
• climate law
• public perception
• climate policies in Türkiye

Etik Beyan

The Malatya Turgut Özal University Social and Human Sciences Research Ethics Committee found this study ethically acceptable at its meeting dated July 17, 2025, and numbered 37 (E-Document Number: E-35841939-050-316517, E-Document Date: July 21, 2025).

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