Taşkın duyarlılık analizinde kullanılan parametreler üzerine bir değerlendirme

Öz

Taşkınlar her geçen gün artan büyüklük ve sıklıklarına bağlı olarak dünyada ve ülkemizde önemi giderek artan afetlerden birisidir. Bu çalışmadaki temel amaç, taşkın duyarlılık ile ilgili uluslararası ve ulusal literatürün değerlendirilmesi ve duyarlılık çalışmalarına yeni bir yaklaşım olarak sel ve taşkınların meydana geldiği yerleşmelerin su toplama havzaları temelli taşkın duyarlılık parametrelerinin belirlenmesini gerçekleştirmektir. Bu kapsamda çalışmada tarihsel taşkın envanterine bağlı olarak Bursa ili sınırları içerisinde vadi tabanı ve akarsu kenarında sel ve taşkınların yaşandığı yerleşmelerin havzalarına bağlı olarak taşkın duyarlılık analizi parametreleri belirlenmiştir. Çalışmada kullanılan temel altlık veriler, Bursa iline ait 5m çözünürlüklü Sayısal Yükseklik Modeli (SYM), 1956-2022 yılları arasını kapsayan envanter verileri, litoloji, hidrolojik toprak grupları (HTG) ve yağış (WorldClim) verileridir. Bursa il sınırları içerisinde meydana gelen tarihsel sel ve taşkın envanterine bağlı olarak 28 yerleşme ve bu yerleşmelerin su toplama havzaları belirlenmiş ve bu havzalara sel ve taşkının oluşmasında hazırlayıcı 12 parametre uygulanmıştır. Taşkın hazırlayıcı parametreler sınıflandırma aşamasında 0-1 arasında normalize edilerek ortaya çıkan sonuca göre taşkın duyarlılık için parametre katsayıları oluşturulmuştur. Sonuç olarak envantere göre maksimum etkiye sahip parametreler; çatallanma oranı (R_b), drenaj yoğunluğu (D_d), akım toplanma zamanı (T_c), eğim, topografik nemlilik indeksi, akarsu güç indeksi, hidrolojik toprak grupları, olarak belirlenmiştir. Bu çalışma ile taşkın duyarlılık analizinde önceki çalışmalardan farklı olarak envantere bağlı ve yerleşim temelli havzalardan taşkın duyarlılık parametreleri belirlenmiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Taşkın hazırlayıcı parametreler
• Taşkın duyarlılık analizi
• Taşkın envanteri
• Bursa

An evaluation on the parameters used in flood susceptibility analysis

Öz

Floods are increasingly important disasters worldwide and Türkiye due to their increasing magnitude and frequency. The main purpose of this study is to evaluate the international and national literature on flood susceptibility and to determine the flood susceptibility parameters based on the watersheds of the settlements where floods occur, as a new approach to susceptibility studies. Accordingly, in study, depending the historical flood inventory, flood susceptibility analysis parameters were determined according to the basins of the settlements where floods are experienced on the valley floor and riverside within the borders of Bursa province. The primary data used in the study are inventory data covering the period between 1956-2022, 5m resolution Digital Elevation Model (DEM) of Bursa province, hydrological soil groups (HSG) and precipitation data (WorldClim). According to the historical flood inventory occurring within the borders of Bursa province, 28 settlements and their watersheds were identified and 12 flood causative parameters were applied to these basins. These flood causative parameters were normalised to between 0-1 in the classification stage and parameter coefficients for flood susceptibility were created according to the result. In this direction, bifurcation ratio, drainage density, time of concentrations, slope, topographic wetness index, stream power index and hydrologic soil groups were determined as the parameters with maximum effect according to the inventory. As a result, in this study, unlike previous studies in flood susceptibility analysis, flood susceptibility parameters were determined from the basins of the settlements where floods occur in the inventory.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Flood causative factors
• Flood susceptibility analysis
• Flood inventory
• Bursa

Kaynakça

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