Aras Nehri havzasında lojistik regresyon yöntemiyle kayma ve akma tip heyelan duyarlılığı değerlendirmesi

Öz

Yamaç stabilitesinin bozulmasıyla gerçekleşen heyelanlar, oluşturdukları kayıplarla ülkemizdeki başlıca afetler arasında yer almaktadır. Türkiye’de heyelanın en fazla yoğunlaştığı ve iç içe geliştiği bölgelerden biri de Aras Nehri Havzasıdır. Bu havzanın yüzde 13’ü heyelanlı olup, bölgede yeniden aktif heyelanlar mekânsal süreklilik sağlamaktadır. Bu çalışmanın amacı da yüksek heyelan yoğunluğuna sahip bu alanda, heyelan duyarlılığını belirlemektir. Bu amaç doğrultusunda ilk olarak fiziki bütünlük kapsamında heyelan yoğunluğuna göre çalışma alanının sınırları belirlenmiştir. Belirlenen çalışma alanında, kırmızı rölyef görüntü haritası ve yüksek çözünürlüklü uydu görüntüsü birlikteliği ile 3904 heyelan tespit edilmiştir. Bu heyelanlar akma ve kayma olarak iki ana tipte sınıflandırılmıştır. Ayrıca havza vektör tabanda yamaç ünitelerine ayrılmıştır. Havzada düzlük alanlar (ova, vadi tabanı ve yapısal düzlük) yamaç ünitelerinden çıkartılmıştır. Yamaç ünitelerine heyelan içerik bilgisi eklenmiştir. Her bir yamaç ünitesine ait eğim, yükselti, rölyef, yamaç profili, topoğrafik nemlilik gibi faktörlerin ortalama ve standart sapma değerlerinin yanı sıra litoloji bilgisi de yamaç duyarlılığında kullanılmıştır. Yamaçların duyarlılığı lojistik regresyon yöntemi ile tespit edilmiştir. Heyelanı kontrol eden faktör ve derecelerinin etkisi heyelan tipine göre değiştiğinden yamaç ünitelerinin heyelan duyarlılığı akma ve kaymalar için ayrı olarak belirlenmiştir. Ortalama AUC (doğru pozitif-yanlış pozitif) değerinde akmalarda 0,79, kaymalarda ise 0,76 başarı elde edilmiştir. Genel olarak çalışmada elde edilen sonuçlarda, (I) havzada heyelanın topoğrafik ve litolojik faktörler tarafından heyelan tipine göre farklı derecede kontrol edildiği (II) bu faktörlerin akma ve kayma için ayrı değerlendirilmesi ile oluşturulan heyelan duyarlılığının başarısının yüksek olduğu (III) farklı tip heyelan için oluşturulan duyarlılık haritaları bölgesel planlama için kullanıma sunulmuştur.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Aras nehri havzası
• heyelan duyarlılığı
• lojistik regresyon
• Yamaç üniteleri

Evaluation of slide and flowtype landslide susceptibility in the Aras River Basin via the logistic regression method

Öz

Landslides, occurring due to slope instability, rank among the primary disasters in our country with the losses they cause. One of the regions in Turkey where landslides are most concentrated and nested is the Aras river basin. 13% of this basin is prone to landslides, and reactivated landslides in the region ensure spatial persistence. This study aims to determine the landslide susceptibility of hillslopes in this area with high landslide density. For this purpose, the boundaries of the study area were first determined based on landslide density within the context of physical integrity. 3904 landslides were identified via Red Relief Image Maps and highresolution satellite imagery in the study area. These landslides were classified into two main types: flow and slide. Additionally, the basin vector has been divided into slope units. Flat areas (plains, valley basins, and structural flats) have been excluded from the slope units in the basin. Landslide content information has been entered into the slope units. The average and standard deviation values, such as slope, elevation, relief, slope profile, topographic wetness, and lithology, for each slope unit were used in landslide susceptibility assessment. Landslide susceptibility was determined using the logistic regression method. The landslide susceptibility of slope units was determined separately for flows and slides because the effects of factors controlling landslides and their degrees vary according to the type of landslide. An average AUC value of 0.79 was achieved for flows, while for slides, a success of 0.76 was obtained. In general, the results obtained in the study indicate that (I) landslides in the basin are controlled to varying degrees by topographic and lithological factors depending on the type of landslide, (II) the high success of landslide susceptibility achieved by separately evaluating these factors for flows and slides, and (III) susceptibility maps created for different types of landslides are usable for regional planning.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Aras river basin
• landslide susceptibility
• logistic regression
• Slope units

Kaynakça

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