Araştırma Makalesi
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Analysis Of Temperatures Indices In Aegean Region Coasts

Yıl 2021, Sayı: 77, 77 - 86, 30.06.2021
https://doi.org/10.17211/tcd.897028

Öz

The increase in average temperatures observed in the Mediterranean basin, where the summer drought is significant, makes its impact more felt in the region, where population and urbanization are quite intense. In this study, the coasts of the Aegean region, where the typical Mediterranean climate is observed, were studied. It is aimed to analyse how the temperature changes, its development and frequency during the specified time period at Edremit, Burhaniye, Bergama, Seferihisar, Cesme, Selcuk, Aydin, Datça, Marmaris stations. Daily maximum, minimum temperature data from selected stations were used. The RH test was applied to determine the homogeneity of the data. 16 of the climate indices determined by WMO and CLIVAR were applied to daily maximum, minimum temperature data. Their trends were determined by the non-parametric Mann Kendall and Sen Trend test. In the results of the analysis, hot nights and days increase, such as summer days, while cool nights and days, cold speel duration tend to decrease. The increase in extreme temperature events has a negative impact on human health, economy, tourism, agriculture and water resources. This effect makes it necessary to take a number of measures in the process of living life, sustainability of the natural environment and adaptation.

Kaynakça

  • Abbasnia, M., & Toros, H. (2018). Analysis of long-term changes in extreme climatic indices: a case study of the Mediterranean climate, Marmara Region, Turkey. Pure and Applied Geophysics, 175(11), 3861–3873. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00024-018-1888-8
  • Acar-Deniz, Z., & Gönençgil.(2015). Trends of summer daily maximum temperature extremes in Turkey. Pyhsical Geography. 36(4), 268-281. https://doi.org/10.1080/02723646.2015.1045285
  • Acar Deniz, Z., & Gönençgil.(2017). Türkiye Sıcaklık Ekstremlerindeki Değişkenlikler. İstanbul Üniversitesi Coğrafya Dergisi, (35), 41-54, İstanbul.
  • Acar Deniz, Z., Gönençgil, B., & Korucu Gümüşoğlu, N. (2018). Long-Term Changes in Hot and Cold Extremes in Turkey. Journal of Geography, (37), 57-67. https://doi.org/10.26650/JGEOG2018-0002
  • Alexander, L. V., Zhang, X., Peterson, T. C., Caesar, J., Gleason, B., Tank, K., Haylock, M., Collins, D., Trewin, B., Rahimzadeh, F., Tagipour, A., Rupa Kumar, K., Revadekar, J., Griffiths, G., Vincent, L., Stephenson, D. B., Burn, J., Aguilar, E., Brunet, M., Taylor, M., New, M., Zhai, P., Rusticucci, M.., & Vazquez-Aguirre, J. L. (2006). Global observed changes in daily climate extremes of temperature and precipitation. Journal of Geophysical Research. (111), D05109. https://doi:10.1029/2005JD006290
  • Alexander, L.V., & Herold, N. (2016). ClimPACT2-Indices and Sofware. The Commission for Climatology (CCl), Expert Team on Sector-Specific Climate Indices (ET-SCI)
  • Choi, G., Collins, D., Ren, G., Trewin, B., Baldi, M., Fukuda, Y., Afzaal, M., Pianmana T., Gomboluudev, P., Huong, P.T.T., Lias, N., Kwon, W.T., Boo, K.O., Cha, Y.M., & Zhou, Y. (2009). Changes in means and extreme events of temperature and precipitation in the Asia Pacific Network region, 1955–2007. International Journal of Climatology, (29), 1906-1925. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1979
  • Croitoru, A. E., & Piticar, A. (2012). Changes in daily extreme temperatures in the Extra-Carpathians regions of Romania. International Journal of Climatology. (33), 1987–2001. https://doi.org/ 10.1002/joc.3567
  • Demir, Ö., Atay, H., Eskioğlu, O., Tüvan, A., Demircan, M., & Akçakaya, A., (2013, Haziran 3-5). Rcp4.5 senaryosuna göre Türkiye’de sıcaklık ve yağış projeksiyonları, III. Türkiye İklim Değişikliği Kongresi - TİKDEK Bildiri Kitabı, İstanbul Türkiye. http://www.mgm.gov.tr/FILES/iklim/rcp-45.pdf
  • Demircan, M. (2019). Sıcaklık verilerinde kırılma tarihleriyle iklim indekslerinin ilişkisi. (Yayın No: 546789) [Doktora Tezi, Ankara Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü]. YÖKTEZ. https://tez.yok.gov.tr/UlusalTezMerkezi/tezSorguSonucYeni.jsp
  • Founda, D., Papadopoulo, K.H., Petrakis, M., Giannakopoulos, C., & Good, P. (2004). Analysis of mean, maximum, and minimum temperature in Athens from 1897 to 2001 with emphasis on the last decade: trends, warm events, and cold events. Global and Planetary Change. (44), 27–38. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2004.06.003
  • Easterling, D.R., Horton B., Jones P.D., Peterson, T.C., Karl T.R., Parker D.E., Salinger M.J., Razuvayev, V., Plummer, N., Jamason, P., & Foland, C.K. (1997). Maximum and minimum temperature trends for the globe. Science. (277), 364–367. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.277.5324.364 El Kenawy, A., Lopez-Moreno, J.I., & Vicente-Serrano, S.M. (2011). Recent trends in daily temperature extremes over northeastern Spain. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences. (11), 2583 – 2603. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-11-2583-2011
  • Erinç, S. (1996). Klimatoloji ve metodları (4. Baskı). Alfa Basım ve Dağıtım,
  • Erlat, E. & Yavaşlı, D. (2009). Ege Bölgesi Tropikal Yaz Günü Sayılarındaki Değişim ve Eğilimler. Ege Coğrafya Dergisi, 18, 1-15.
  • Frich P., Alexander, L.V., Della-Marta, P., Gleason, B., Haylock, M., Klein Tank, A.M.G., & Peterson, T., (2002). Observed coherent changes in climatic extremes during the second half of the twentieth century. Climate Research. (19), 193–212. https://doi.org/10.3354/cr019193
  • Gilbert, R.O. (1987). Statistical methods for environmental pollution monitoring (1. Edition). Van Nostrand Reinhold.
  • Giorgi, F. (2006). Climate change Hot Spots. Geophysical Research Letters. 33, L08707. https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GL025734
  • Gocic, M., & Trajkovic, S. (2013) Analysis of changes in meteorological variables using Mann-Kendall and Sen’s Slope Estimator statistical tests in Serbia. Global and Planetary Change. (100), 172–182. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2012.10.014
  • Gönençgil, B. (2008). Doğal süreçler açısından iklim değişikliği ve insan (1. Baskı). Çantay Kitabevi.
  • Hundecha Y., & Bardossy A. (2005). Trends in daily precipitation and temperature extremes across Western Germany in the second half of the 20th century. International Journal of Climatology. (25), 1189–1202. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1182.
  • IPCC, 2013: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Stocker, T.F., D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S.K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex & P.M. Midgley (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press.
  • Karabulut, M., & Topuz M, (2019). Adana’da tropikal ve yaz günü sayılarındaki değişim ve eğilimler. İçinde Arslan., D.A., Akhan, B., Mirov., M. (Eds) 2. International Mediterranean Symposium, (ss.108-124).
  • Kendal, M. (1975). Rank correlation methods (4. Edition). Charles Griffin.
  • Mann, H. (1945). Non-parametric test against trend, Econometrica. (13), 245–259. https://doi.org/0012-9682(194507)13:3<245:NTAT>2.0.CO;2-U
  • R Core Team. (2016). R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing. Vienna, 661. http://www.r-project.org/index.html Scorzini, A.R., Bacco, M., & Leopardi, M. (2018). Recent trends in daily temperature extremes over the central Adriatic region of Italy in a Mediterranean climatic context. International Journal of Climatology. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.5403
  • Sen, P. K. (1968). Estimates of the regression coefficient based on Kendall’s tau. Journal of American Statistical Association, (63), 1379–1389. https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1968.10480934
  • Sensoy, S., Demircan, M., & I. Alan. (2008, Mayıs 27-31). Trends in Turkey Climate Extreme Indices from 1971 to 2004. Third International Scientific Conference on Water Observation and Information Systems for Decision Support (BALWOIS). Ohrid, Macedonia.
  • Tatlı, H., & Altunay, A. (2015, Nisan 28-30). Türkiye’de olası İklim Değişikliği etkilerinin Mann Kendall trend yaklaşımı ile incelenmesi. [Konferans özeti] VII. Atmosferik Bilimler Sempozyumu, İstanbul, Türkiye.
  • Vincent, L.A., Peterson, T.C., Barros, V.R., Marino, M.B., Rusticucci, M., Carrasco, G., Ramirez, E., Alves., L.M., Ambrizzi, T., Berlato, M.A., Grimm, A.M., Marengo, J.A., Molion, L., Moncunill, D.F., Rebello, E., Anunciaçãom, Y.M.T, Quintanan, J., Santoso, J.L., Baezp, J.,…, Karolyv, D. (2005). Observed trends in indices of daily temperature extremes in South America: 1960–2000. Journal of Climate, (18), 5011–5023. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3589.1
  • Wang, X. L. (2003). Comments on ‘‘Detection of undocumented changepoints: A revision of the two-phase regression model’’. Journal of Climate, (16), 3383–3385. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2003)016<3383:CODOUC>2.0.CO;2
  • Wang, X. L., & Feng. Y. (Ekim, 2004). RHTest User Manual. Climate Research Branch Meteorological Service of Canada Downsview.
  • Commission of Climatology (CCI). (2013). Climpact- Indices and Software. https://epic.awi.de/id/eprint/49274/1/ClimPACTv2_manual.pdf
  • Wang, X. L., Chen, H., Wu. Y., Feng, Y., & Pu, Q. (2010). New techniques for the detection and adjustment of shifts in daily precipitation data series. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, (49), 2416 . https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JAMC2376.1
  • Woodhouse, C. A., & Overpeck J. T. (1998). 2000 years of drought variability in the Central United States. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 79(12), 2693–2714. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477(1998)079<2693:YODVIT>2.0.CO;2
  • Zhang, X., & Yang, F. (2004). RClimdex(1.0)-User Manuel, Climate Research Branch Environment Canada Downsview.
  • Zhang, X., Alexander, L., Hegerl, G.C., Jones, P., Klein, T.A., Peterson, T.C., Trewin, B., & Zwiers, W.F. (2011). Indices for monitoring changes in extremes based on daily temperature and precipitation data. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, 2(6), 851–870. https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.147

Ege Bölgesi kıyılarında sıcaklık indislerinin analizi

Yıl 2021, Sayı: 77, 77 - 86, 30.06.2021
https://doi.org/10.17211/tcd.897028

Öz

Yaz kuraklığının belirgin olduğu Akdeniz havzasında gözlenen ortalama sıcaklıklardaki artış, nüfusun ve kentleşmenin oldukça yoğun olduğu bölgede etkisini daha fazla hissettirmektedir. Bu çalışmada, tipik Akdeniz ikliminin görüldüğü Ege Bölgesi kıyıları incelenmiştir. Edremit, Burhaniye, Bergama, Seferihisar, Çeşme, Selçuk, Aydın, Datça ve Marmaris istasyonlarında belirtilen süre içinde sıcaklığın nasıl değiştiğini, gelişimini ve sıklığını analiz edilmesi amaçlanmıştır. Seçilen istasyonlardan günlük maksimum ve minimum sıcaklık verileri kullanılmıştır. Verilerin homojenliğini tespit etmek için RH testi uygulanmıştır. Homojenliği sağlanan verilere WMO ve CLIVAR tarafından belirlenen iklim indislerinin 16 tanesi günlük maksimum ve minimum sıcaklık verilerine uygulanmış, ekstrem değerlerin eğilimleri parametrik olmayan Mann Kendall ve Sen Eğilim test yöntemi ile belirlenmiştir. Analiz sonuçlarında sıcak gece ve günler, yaz günleri gibi artış gösterirken serin gece ve günler, soğuk devre süresi, günlük sıcaklık aralığı azalış eğilimi içerisindedir. Ekstrem sıcaklık olaylarında gözlenen artış insan sağlığı, ekonomi, turizm, tarım ve su kaynakları üzerinde negatif etki oluşturmaktadır. Bu etki canlı yaşamı, doğal ortamın sürdürülebilirliği ve adaptasyon sürecinde birtakım önlemler alınmasını gerekli kılmaktadır.

Kaynakça

  • Abbasnia, M., & Toros, H. (2018). Analysis of long-term changes in extreme climatic indices: a case study of the Mediterranean climate, Marmara Region, Turkey. Pure and Applied Geophysics, 175(11), 3861–3873. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00024-018-1888-8
  • Acar-Deniz, Z., & Gönençgil.(2015). Trends of summer daily maximum temperature extremes in Turkey. Pyhsical Geography. 36(4), 268-281. https://doi.org/10.1080/02723646.2015.1045285
  • Acar Deniz, Z., & Gönençgil.(2017). Türkiye Sıcaklık Ekstremlerindeki Değişkenlikler. İstanbul Üniversitesi Coğrafya Dergisi, (35), 41-54, İstanbul.
  • Acar Deniz, Z., Gönençgil, B., & Korucu Gümüşoğlu, N. (2018). Long-Term Changes in Hot and Cold Extremes in Turkey. Journal of Geography, (37), 57-67. https://doi.org/10.26650/JGEOG2018-0002
  • Alexander, L. V., Zhang, X., Peterson, T. C., Caesar, J., Gleason, B., Tank, K., Haylock, M., Collins, D., Trewin, B., Rahimzadeh, F., Tagipour, A., Rupa Kumar, K., Revadekar, J., Griffiths, G., Vincent, L., Stephenson, D. B., Burn, J., Aguilar, E., Brunet, M., Taylor, M., New, M., Zhai, P., Rusticucci, M.., & Vazquez-Aguirre, J. L. (2006). Global observed changes in daily climate extremes of temperature and precipitation. Journal of Geophysical Research. (111), D05109. https://doi:10.1029/2005JD006290
  • Alexander, L.V., & Herold, N. (2016). ClimPACT2-Indices and Sofware. The Commission for Climatology (CCl), Expert Team on Sector-Specific Climate Indices (ET-SCI)
  • Choi, G., Collins, D., Ren, G., Trewin, B., Baldi, M., Fukuda, Y., Afzaal, M., Pianmana T., Gomboluudev, P., Huong, P.T.T., Lias, N., Kwon, W.T., Boo, K.O., Cha, Y.M., & Zhou, Y. (2009). Changes in means and extreme events of temperature and precipitation in the Asia Pacific Network region, 1955–2007. International Journal of Climatology, (29), 1906-1925. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1979
  • Croitoru, A. E., & Piticar, A. (2012). Changes in daily extreme temperatures in the Extra-Carpathians regions of Romania. International Journal of Climatology. (33), 1987–2001. https://doi.org/ 10.1002/joc.3567
  • Demir, Ö., Atay, H., Eskioğlu, O., Tüvan, A., Demircan, M., & Akçakaya, A., (2013, Haziran 3-5). Rcp4.5 senaryosuna göre Türkiye’de sıcaklık ve yağış projeksiyonları, III. Türkiye İklim Değişikliği Kongresi - TİKDEK Bildiri Kitabı, İstanbul Türkiye. http://www.mgm.gov.tr/FILES/iklim/rcp-45.pdf
  • Demircan, M. (2019). Sıcaklık verilerinde kırılma tarihleriyle iklim indekslerinin ilişkisi. (Yayın No: 546789) [Doktora Tezi, Ankara Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü]. YÖKTEZ. https://tez.yok.gov.tr/UlusalTezMerkezi/tezSorguSonucYeni.jsp
  • Founda, D., Papadopoulo, K.H., Petrakis, M., Giannakopoulos, C., & Good, P. (2004). Analysis of mean, maximum, and minimum temperature in Athens from 1897 to 2001 with emphasis on the last decade: trends, warm events, and cold events. Global and Planetary Change. (44), 27–38. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2004.06.003
  • Easterling, D.R., Horton B., Jones P.D., Peterson, T.C., Karl T.R., Parker D.E., Salinger M.J., Razuvayev, V., Plummer, N., Jamason, P., & Foland, C.K. (1997). Maximum and minimum temperature trends for the globe. Science. (277), 364–367. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.277.5324.364 El Kenawy, A., Lopez-Moreno, J.I., & Vicente-Serrano, S.M. (2011). Recent trends in daily temperature extremes over northeastern Spain. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences. (11), 2583 – 2603. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-11-2583-2011
  • Erinç, S. (1996). Klimatoloji ve metodları (4. Baskı). Alfa Basım ve Dağıtım,
  • Erlat, E. & Yavaşlı, D. (2009). Ege Bölgesi Tropikal Yaz Günü Sayılarındaki Değişim ve Eğilimler. Ege Coğrafya Dergisi, 18, 1-15.
  • Frich P., Alexander, L.V., Della-Marta, P., Gleason, B., Haylock, M., Klein Tank, A.M.G., & Peterson, T., (2002). Observed coherent changes in climatic extremes during the second half of the twentieth century. Climate Research. (19), 193–212. https://doi.org/10.3354/cr019193
  • Gilbert, R.O. (1987). Statistical methods for environmental pollution monitoring (1. Edition). Van Nostrand Reinhold.
  • Giorgi, F. (2006). Climate change Hot Spots. Geophysical Research Letters. 33, L08707. https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GL025734
  • Gocic, M., & Trajkovic, S. (2013) Analysis of changes in meteorological variables using Mann-Kendall and Sen’s Slope Estimator statistical tests in Serbia. Global and Planetary Change. (100), 172–182. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2012.10.014
  • Gönençgil, B. (2008). Doğal süreçler açısından iklim değişikliği ve insan (1. Baskı). Çantay Kitabevi.
  • Hundecha Y., & Bardossy A. (2005). Trends in daily precipitation and temperature extremes across Western Germany in the second half of the 20th century. International Journal of Climatology. (25), 1189–1202. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1182.
  • IPCC, 2013: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Stocker, T.F., D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S.K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex & P.M. Midgley (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press.
  • Karabulut, M., & Topuz M, (2019). Adana’da tropikal ve yaz günü sayılarındaki değişim ve eğilimler. İçinde Arslan., D.A., Akhan, B., Mirov., M. (Eds) 2. International Mediterranean Symposium, (ss.108-124).
  • Kendal, M. (1975). Rank correlation methods (4. Edition). Charles Griffin.
  • Mann, H. (1945). Non-parametric test against trend, Econometrica. (13), 245–259. https://doi.org/0012-9682(194507)13:3<245:NTAT>2.0.CO;2-U
  • R Core Team. (2016). R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing. Vienna, 661. http://www.r-project.org/index.html Scorzini, A.R., Bacco, M., & Leopardi, M. (2018). Recent trends in daily temperature extremes over the central Adriatic region of Italy in a Mediterranean climatic context. International Journal of Climatology. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.5403
  • Sen, P. K. (1968). Estimates of the regression coefficient based on Kendall’s tau. Journal of American Statistical Association, (63), 1379–1389. https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1968.10480934
  • Sensoy, S., Demircan, M., & I. Alan. (2008, Mayıs 27-31). Trends in Turkey Climate Extreme Indices from 1971 to 2004. Third International Scientific Conference on Water Observation and Information Systems for Decision Support (BALWOIS). Ohrid, Macedonia.
  • Tatlı, H., & Altunay, A. (2015, Nisan 28-30). Türkiye’de olası İklim Değişikliği etkilerinin Mann Kendall trend yaklaşımı ile incelenmesi. [Konferans özeti] VII. Atmosferik Bilimler Sempozyumu, İstanbul, Türkiye.
  • Vincent, L.A., Peterson, T.C., Barros, V.R., Marino, M.B., Rusticucci, M., Carrasco, G., Ramirez, E., Alves., L.M., Ambrizzi, T., Berlato, M.A., Grimm, A.M., Marengo, J.A., Molion, L., Moncunill, D.F., Rebello, E., Anunciaçãom, Y.M.T, Quintanan, J., Santoso, J.L., Baezp, J.,…, Karolyv, D. (2005). Observed trends in indices of daily temperature extremes in South America: 1960–2000. Journal of Climate, (18), 5011–5023. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3589.1
  • Wang, X. L. (2003). Comments on ‘‘Detection of undocumented changepoints: A revision of the two-phase regression model’’. Journal of Climate, (16), 3383–3385. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2003)016<3383:CODOUC>2.0.CO;2
  • Wang, X. L., & Feng. Y. (Ekim, 2004). RHTest User Manual. Climate Research Branch Meteorological Service of Canada Downsview.
  • Commission of Climatology (CCI). (2013). Climpact- Indices and Software. https://epic.awi.de/id/eprint/49274/1/ClimPACTv2_manual.pdf
  • Wang, X. L., Chen, H., Wu. Y., Feng, Y., & Pu, Q. (2010). New techniques for the detection and adjustment of shifts in daily precipitation data series. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, (49), 2416 . https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JAMC2376.1
  • Woodhouse, C. A., & Overpeck J. T. (1998). 2000 years of drought variability in the Central United States. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 79(12), 2693–2714. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477(1998)079<2693:YODVIT>2.0.CO;2
  • Zhang, X., & Yang, F. (2004). RClimdex(1.0)-User Manuel, Climate Research Branch Environment Canada Downsview.
  • Zhang, X., Alexander, L., Hegerl, G.C., Jones, P., Klein, T.A., Peterson, T.C., Trewin, B., & Zwiers, W.F. (2011). Indices for monitoring changes in extremes based on daily temperature and precipitation data. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, 2(6), 851–870. https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.147
Toplam 36 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil Türkçe
Konular Beşeri Coğrafya
Bölüm Araştırma Makalesi
Yazarlar

Sevilcan Dün 0000-0002-5129-3785

Barbaros Gönençgil 0000-0001-6535-4481

Yayımlanma Tarihi 30 Haziran 2021
Kabul Tarihi 16 Mayıs 2021
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2021 Sayı: 77

Kaynak Göster

APA Dün, S., & Gönençgil, B. (2021). Ege Bölgesi kıyılarında sıcaklık indislerinin analizi. Türk Coğrafya Dergisi(77), 77-86. https://doi.org/10.17211/tcd.897028

Yayıncı: Türk Coğrafya Kurumu