Watershed prioritization and erosion risk analysis in the Apa Dam Watershed using the fuzzy AHP method based on morphometric parameters

Öz

This study was conducted to assess the erosion risk and prioritize sub-watersheds within the Apa Dam Basin, located in the Inner Anatolia Region. Within the scope of the study, a total of 13 morphometric parameters were calculated for 10 sub-basins using Geographic Information Systems (GIS)-supported morphometric analysis. The obtained parameters were evaluated utilizing the Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (FAHP), a Multi-Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM) method. The relative importance of the morphometric parameters was determined through pairwise comparisons based on expert opinions and subsequently weighted using the FAHP method. Furthermore, the Ordered Weighted Average (OWA) operator was employed to integrate decision-makers' risk tolerances into the model. To conduct a sensitivity analysis, strategic risk scenarios based on varying degrees of optimism were constructed. The analysis results indicated that relief-based parameters (e.g., Rhp, Rr, and Rn) have the most significant effect on erosion risk. According to the FAHP scores, sub-basins SW-10, SW-8, and SW-3 were classified as "very high priority," indicating the highest erosion risk. Additionally, approximately 43% of the entire basin was found to have a high or very high erosion risk. In conclusion, this study demonstrates the effectiveness of the FAHP method, integrated with morphometric analyses, in determining erosion risk. It also confirms the structural stability of the model across different risk scenarios, particularly through the complete spatial fit achieved in the neutral scenario. The findings reveal that the integration of FAHP and OWA transforms the basin prioritization process from a static ranking into a dynamic and adaptable decision support system for decision-makers.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• MCDM
• Erosion risk
• Morphometry
• Soil conservation

Apa Barajı Havzasında morfometrik parametrelere dayalı bulanık AHP yöntemi ile havza önceliklendirmesi ve erozyon risk analizi

Öz

Bu çalışma, İç Anadolu Bölgesi'nde bulunan Apa Barajı Havzası’nda erozyon riskinin değerlendirilmesi ve alt havzaların önceliklendirilmesi amacıyla gerçekleştirilmiştir. Çalışma kapsamında, Coğrafi Bilgi Sistemleri (CBS) destekli morfometrik analiz yöntemi kullanılarak 10 alt havzada toplam 13 morfometrik parametre hesaplanmıştır. Elde edilen parametreler, Çok Kriterli Karar Verme (ÇKKV) yöntemlerinden biri olan Bulanık Analitik Hiyerarşi Süreci (FAHP) ile değerlendirilmiştir. Morfometrik parametrelerin göreli önemleri uzman görüşlerine dayalı ikili karşılaştırmalar kullanılarak belirlenmiş ve FAHP yöntemiyle ağırlıklandırılmıştır. Bununla birlikte, karar vericilerin risk toleranslarını modele entegre etmek ve duyarlılık analizi yapmak amacıyla OWA (Sıralı Ağırlıklı Ortalama) operatörü kullanılmış; farklı iyimserlik derecelerine (ORness) dayalı stratejik risk senaryoları kurgulanmıştır. Analiz sonuçları, rölyef temelli parametrelerin (örneğin Rhp, Rr ve Rn) erozyon riski üzerinde en belirgin etkiye sahip olduğunu göstermiştir. FAHP skorlarına göre AH-10, AH-8 ve AH-3 alt havzaları, "çok yüksek öncelikli" grupta yer alarak en yüksek erozyon riski taşıyan bölgeler olarak tanımlanmış olup; havza genelinin yaklaşık %43'ünün yüksek ya da çok yüksek erozyon riski taşıdığı tespit edilmiştir. Sonuç olarak bu çalışma; morfometrik analizlerle entegre edilen FAHP yönteminin erozyon riskini belirlemedeki etkinliğini kanıtlarken, özellikle Nötr senaryoda elde edilen tam mekânsal uyum sayesinde farklı ORness senaryolarıyla da modelin yapısal kararlılığını doğrulamıştır. Elde edilen bulgular, FAHP ve OWA entegrasyonunun havza önceliklendirme sürecini statik bir sıralama olmaktan çıkarıp, karar alıcılar için dinamik ve uyarlanabilir bir karar destek sistemine dönüştürdüğünü ortaya koymaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• ÇKKV
• Erozyon riski
• Morfometri
• Toprak koruma

Kaynakça

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