Prediction of present and future spread of Adenocarpus complicatus (L.) Gay species according to climate variables

Öz

Analyzing how the vegetative material, which is the most important design element of Turkey and the most important design element of the Landscape Architecture profession, will be affected by climate change, is of great importance in order to plan the future use of these species in planting studies. The article consists of two main sections. Firstly, the presence data of Adenocarpus complicatus (L.) Gay and WorldClim 2.1 version of 19 bioclimatic variables at 2.5 minutes (approximately 20 km2) spatial resolution were used to estimate the potential distribution area of the species in today's conditions. In the next stage, in order to determine how the range of the species will be affected by climate change, the 6th IPCC report was created based on the IPSL-CM6A-LR climate change model, which is one of the paired model comparison Project (CMIP6) models. The potential distribution area of the species for the periods 2041-2060 and 2081-2100 was modeled according to the SSP2 4.5 and SSP5 8.5 scenarios. In addition, the spatial and spatial differences between the present and future distribution areas of the species were revealed by analysis of change. According to the findings, the areas that are considered suitable and very suitable in the current distribution area are calculated as 63.695 km2.The spread of the species will decrease according to the model results. According to SSP5 8.5 scenario ~2090, it will predicted not seen the kind in Turkey.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Adenocarpus complicatus
• MaxEnt
• Climate change
• Species distrubituon model
• CMIP6
• SSP2 4.5
• SSP5 8.5
• Turkey

Adenocarpus complicatus (L.) Gay türünün iklim değişkenlerine bağlı günümüz ve gelecekteki yayılış alanlarının tahmini

Öz

Ülkemize ait ve Peyzaj Mimarlığı meslek disiplininin en önemli tasarım elemanı olan bitkisel materyalin iklim değişikliğinden nasıl etkileneceğinin analiz edilmesi, bu türlerin bitkilendirme çalışmalarında gelecek kullanımının planlanabilmesi açısından önemlidir. Çalışmada ilk olarak Adenocarpus complicatus (L.) Gay’e ait var verileri (presence data) ve WorldClim 2.1 versiyonu 2.5 dakika (yaklaşık 20 km2) konumsal çözünürlükteki 19 adet biyoiklimsel değişken kullanılarak türün günümüz koşullarındaki potansiyel yayılış alanı tahmin edilmiştir. İkinci aşamada ise türün yayılış alanlarının iklim değişiminden nasıl etkileneceğini belirlemek için 6. IPCC raporu temel alınarak oluşturulmuş ve eşleştirilmiş model karşılaştırma projesi (CMIP6) modellerinden olan IPSL-CM6A-LR iklim değişim modeli kullanılarak türün SSP2 4.5 ve SSP5 8.5 senaryolarına göre 2041-2060 ve 2081-2100 periyodlarına ait potansiyel yayılış alanı modellenmiştir. Ayrıca türlere ait üretilen günümüz ve gelecekteki yayılış alanları arasındaki alansal ve konumsal farklar değişim analizi ile ortaya konulmuştur. Bulgulara göre günümüz yayılış alanı uygun ve çok uygun olarak değerlendirilen alanlar 63.695 km2 olarak hesaplanmıştır. Sonuçta türün yayılış alanlarının yıllara göre giderek azalacağı, özellikle SSP5 8.5 senaryosuna göre ~2090 yılında Türkiye koşullarında türe rastlanılamayacağı tahmin edilmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• MaxEnt
• Sıyırgı
• İklim değişikliği
• Tür dağılım modeli
• CMIP6
• SSP2 4.5
• SSP5 8.5
• Türkiye

Kaynakça

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