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Yaşlı İşsizliği ve Kamu Eğitim Harcamaları İlişkisinin Dumitrescu-Hurlin Panel Nedensellik Testi ile Belirlenmesi

Yıl 2024, Cilt: 5 Sayı: 2, 121 - 137

Öz

İçerisinde bulunduğumuz yüzyılın önemli sorunlarından biri de nüfus yaşlanmasıdır. Nüfus aynı zamanda emek arzının temel belirleyicisi olduğu için, nüfus yapısındaki değişim işgücü piyasasını ve piyasa ekonomisini doğrudan etkilemektedir. Yaşlı işgücünün emekli olma kararını erteleyerek emeğini arz etmeye devam etmesi, yaş dostu iş, iş yeri ve çalışma koşullarının oluşturulması, yaşlı işgücünün işgücü piyasasına uygun bilgi ve becerilerinin güncel tutulması önemli hale gelmektedir. Bunun yanı sıra işyerinde yaş ayrımcılığı ve yaşlı işgücüne yönelik işverenin olumsuz tutumu yaşlı işgücününün istihdamını ve işgücü piyasasından ayrılma kararını olumsuz etkilemektedir. Bu çalışmanın amacı, 26 OECD ülkesinin 2007-2021 dönemine ait kamu eğitim harcamaları ve yaşlı işsizlik oranı arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisinin panel nedensellik testi ile belirlenmesidir. Çalışmada ikinci nesil panel birim kök testi kullanılmıştır. Heterojen olduğu görülen serilerde Dumitrescu-Hurlin nedensellik analizi gerçekleştirilmiştir. Analiz sonuçlarına göre yaşlı işsizlik oranı ile eğitim harcamalarının GSYİH içindeki payı arasında çift yönlü nedensellik ilişkisi tespit edilmiştir.

Kaynakça

  • Brooke, E. (2018). Workforce Ageing in the Australasian Journal on Ageing: Laying the Research Foundations. Australasian Journal on Ageing, 37(1). doi:10.1111/ajag.12513.
  • Cai, L. ve Cong, C. (2009). Effects of Health and Chronic Diseases on Labour Force Participation of Older Working‐age Australians. Australian Economic Papers, 48(2), 166-182. doi:10.1111/j.1467-8454.2009.00365.x.
  • Csanádi, G., Csizmady, A., & Róbert, P. (2014). Adult learning in Hungary: Participation and labor market outcomes. In Adult Learning in Modern Societies (pp. 264-282). Edward Elgar Publishing.
  • Disney, R. ve Hawkes, D. (2003). Why Has Employment Recently Risen Among Older Workers in Britain? R. Dickens, P. Gregg ve J. Wadsworth (Ed.), The Labour Market Under New Labour: The State of Working Britain 2003 içinde (ss. 53-69). London: Palgrave Macmillan UK. doi:10.1057/9780230598454_5.
  • Dumitrescu, E.-I. ve Hurlin, C. (2012). Testing for Granger Non-Causality in Heterogeneous Panels. Economic Modelling, 29(4), 1450-1460. doi:10.1016/j.econmod.2012.02.014
  • Dymock, D., Billett, S., Klieve, H., Johnson, G. ve Martin, G. (2012). Mature Age ‘White Collar’ Workers’ Training and Employability. International Journal of Lifelong Education. 31(2), 171-186, doi:10.1080/02601370.2012.663807.
  • Günaydın, D. (2018). Türkiye’nin Demografik Dönüşümü Çerçevesinde İşgücünün Yaşlanma Sorunu. Yaşlı Sorunları Araştırma Dergisi, 11(1), 1-13. https://dergipark.org.tr/en/pub/yasad/issue/36626/304073 adresinden erişildi.
  • Gündoğan, N. (2001). İşgücünün Yaşlanması ve İşgücü Piyasalarına Etkileri. Ankara Üniversitesi SBF Dergisi, 56(4), 1. doi:10.1501/SBFder_0000001873.
  • Hashem Pesaran, M. ve Yamagata, T. (2008). Testing Slope Homogeneity in Large Panels. Journal of Econometrics, 142(1), 50-93. doi:10.1016/j.jeconom.2007.05.010.
  • Hashim, J. ve Wok, S. (2013). Competence, Performance and Trainability of Older Workers of Higher Educational Institutions in Malaysia. Employee Relations, 36(1), 82-106. doi:10.1108/er-04-2012-0031.
  • Hollywood, E., Brown, R., Danson, M., ve McQuaid, R. W. (2007). Demographic and Labour Market Change: The dynamics of Older Workers in The Scottish Labour Market. Scottish Geographical Journal, 123(4), 242-256. https://doi.org/10.1080/14702540802189677.
  • Hotopp, U. (2005). The Employment Rate of Older Workers. Labour Market Trends, 113(2), 73-88.
  • Katz, L. F. ve Murphy, K. M. (1992). Changes in Relative Wages, 1963–1987: Supply and Demand Factors. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 107(1), 35-78. doi:10.2307/2118323.
  • Mačiulytė-Šniukienė, A., Matuzevičiūtė, K., ve Ruplienė, D. (2019). Evaluating The Impact of Ageing Population on Labour Market. Proceedings of 6th International Scientific Conference Contemporary Issues in Business, Management and Economics Engineering ‘2. https://doi.org/10.3846/cibmee.2019.005.
  • OECD. (2023). Pensions at a Glance 2023. doi:https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1787/678055dd-en Pesaran, M. H. (2007). A Simple Panel Unit Root Test in The Presence of Cross-Section Dependence. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 22(2), 265-312. doi:10.1002/jae.951.
  • Pillay, H., Kelly, K. ve Tones, M. (2006). Career Aspirations of Older Workers: An Australian Study. International Journal of Training and Development, 10(4), 298-305. doi:10.1111/j.1468-2419.2006.00263.x.
  • Raemdonck, I., Tillema, H., de Grip, A., Valcke, M. ve Segers, M. (2012). Does Self-directedness in Learning and Careers Predict the Employability of Low-Qualified Employees? Vocations and Learning, 5(2), 137-151. doi:10.1007/s12186-011-9072-7.
  • Rutledge, M. S., Sass, S. A. ve Ramos-Mercado, J. D. (2017). How Does Occupational Access for Older Workers Differ by Education? Journal of Labor Research, 38(3), 283-305. doi:10.1007/s12122-017-9250-y.
  • Stenberg, A., de Luna, X. ve Westerlund, O. (2012). Can Adult Education Delay Retirement From The Labour Market? Journal of Population Economics, 25(2), 677-696. doi:10.1007/s00148-010-0350-8.
  • Turner, T. (2019). Remaining Active in The Labour Market: Trends and Characteristics of the Over 50s. The Irish Journal of Management, 38(1), 16-25. https://doi.org/10.2478/ijm-2018-0007.
  • Ulu, S. ve Kutani̇s, R. Ö. (2016). İşgücü Piyasalarında Ayrımcılığın Kaynakları. Selçuk Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, (35), 359-372. https://dergipark.org.tr/en/pub/susbed/issue/61815/924938 adresinden erişildi.
  • Vilhena, D. V., Kilpi-Jakonen, E., Schührer, S., ve Blossfeld, H. P. (2014). The promise and reality of adult learning in modern societies. In H. P. Blossfeld, E. Kilpi-Jakonen, D. V. Vilhena, ve S. Buchholz(Eds.), Adult learning in modern societies: An international comparison from a life-course perspective. Cheltenham: Edward Elgar Publishing.
  • Yerdelen Tatoğlu, F. (2018). Panel Veri Ekonometrisi: Stata Uygulamalı. Beta Yayınları, İstanbul.
  • Wahler, S., Buchoholz, S., Jensen, V. M. ve Unfried, J. (2014). Adult Learning in Denmark: Patterns of Participation in Adult Learning and Its Impact on Individuals’ Labor Market Outcomes. Adult Learning in Modern Societies içinde (ss. 223-241). Edward Elgar Publishing. https://www.elgaronline.com/display/edcoll/9781783475179/9781783475179.00020.xml adresinden erişildi.
Yıl 2024, Cilt: 5 Sayı: 2, 121 - 137

Öz

Kaynakça

  • Brooke, E. (2018). Workforce Ageing in the Australasian Journal on Ageing: Laying the Research Foundations. Australasian Journal on Ageing, 37(1). doi:10.1111/ajag.12513.
  • Cai, L. ve Cong, C. (2009). Effects of Health and Chronic Diseases on Labour Force Participation of Older Working‐age Australians. Australian Economic Papers, 48(2), 166-182. doi:10.1111/j.1467-8454.2009.00365.x.
  • Csanádi, G., Csizmady, A., & Róbert, P. (2014). Adult learning in Hungary: Participation and labor market outcomes. In Adult Learning in Modern Societies (pp. 264-282). Edward Elgar Publishing.
  • Disney, R. ve Hawkes, D. (2003). Why Has Employment Recently Risen Among Older Workers in Britain? R. Dickens, P. Gregg ve J. Wadsworth (Ed.), The Labour Market Under New Labour: The State of Working Britain 2003 içinde (ss. 53-69). London: Palgrave Macmillan UK. doi:10.1057/9780230598454_5.
  • Dumitrescu, E.-I. ve Hurlin, C. (2012). Testing for Granger Non-Causality in Heterogeneous Panels. Economic Modelling, 29(4), 1450-1460. doi:10.1016/j.econmod.2012.02.014
  • Dymock, D., Billett, S., Klieve, H., Johnson, G. ve Martin, G. (2012). Mature Age ‘White Collar’ Workers’ Training and Employability. International Journal of Lifelong Education. 31(2), 171-186, doi:10.1080/02601370.2012.663807.
  • Günaydın, D. (2018). Türkiye’nin Demografik Dönüşümü Çerçevesinde İşgücünün Yaşlanma Sorunu. Yaşlı Sorunları Araştırma Dergisi, 11(1), 1-13. https://dergipark.org.tr/en/pub/yasad/issue/36626/304073 adresinden erişildi.
  • Gündoğan, N. (2001). İşgücünün Yaşlanması ve İşgücü Piyasalarına Etkileri. Ankara Üniversitesi SBF Dergisi, 56(4), 1. doi:10.1501/SBFder_0000001873.
  • Hashem Pesaran, M. ve Yamagata, T. (2008). Testing Slope Homogeneity in Large Panels. Journal of Econometrics, 142(1), 50-93. doi:10.1016/j.jeconom.2007.05.010.
  • Hashim, J. ve Wok, S. (2013). Competence, Performance and Trainability of Older Workers of Higher Educational Institutions in Malaysia. Employee Relations, 36(1), 82-106. doi:10.1108/er-04-2012-0031.
  • Hollywood, E., Brown, R., Danson, M., ve McQuaid, R. W. (2007). Demographic and Labour Market Change: The dynamics of Older Workers in The Scottish Labour Market. Scottish Geographical Journal, 123(4), 242-256. https://doi.org/10.1080/14702540802189677.
  • Hotopp, U. (2005). The Employment Rate of Older Workers. Labour Market Trends, 113(2), 73-88.
  • Katz, L. F. ve Murphy, K. M. (1992). Changes in Relative Wages, 1963–1987: Supply and Demand Factors. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 107(1), 35-78. doi:10.2307/2118323.
  • Mačiulytė-Šniukienė, A., Matuzevičiūtė, K., ve Ruplienė, D. (2019). Evaluating The Impact of Ageing Population on Labour Market. Proceedings of 6th International Scientific Conference Contemporary Issues in Business, Management and Economics Engineering ‘2. https://doi.org/10.3846/cibmee.2019.005.
  • OECD. (2023). Pensions at a Glance 2023. doi:https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1787/678055dd-en Pesaran, M. H. (2007). A Simple Panel Unit Root Test in The Presence of Cross-Section Dependence. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 22(2), 265-312. doi:10.1002/jae.951.
  • Pillay, H., Kelly, K. ve Tones, M. (2006). Career Aspirations of Older Workers: An Australian Study. International Journal of Training and Development, 10(4), 298-305. doi:10.1111/j.1468-2419.2006.00263.x.
  • Raemdonck, I., Tillema, H., de Grip, A., Valcke, M. ve Segers, M. (2012). Does Self-directedness in Learning and Careers Predict the Employability of Low-Qualified Employees? Vocations and Learning, 5(2), 137-151. doi:10.1007/s12186-011-9072-7.
  • Rutledge, M. S., Sass, S. A. ve Ramos-Mercado, J. D. (2017). How Does Occupational Access for Older Workers Differ by Education? Journal of Labor Research, 38(3), 283-305. doi:10.1007/s12122-017-9250-y.
  • Stenberg, A., de Luna, X. ve Westerlund, O. (2012). Can Adult Education Delay Retirement From The Labour Market? Journal of Population Economics, 25(2), 677-696. doi:10.1007/s00148-010-0350-8.
  • Turner, T. (2019). Remaining Active in The Labour Market: Trends and Characteristics of the Over 50s. The Irish Journal of Management, 38(1), 16-25. https://doi.org/10.2478/ijm-2018-0007.
  • Ulu, S. ve Kutani̇s, R. Ö. (2016). İşgücü Piyasalarında Ayrımcılığın Kaynakları. Selçuk Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, (35), 359-372. https://dergipark.org.tr/en/pub/susbed/issue/61815/924938 adresinden erişildi.
  • Vilhena, D. V., Kilpi-Jakonen, E., Schührer, S., ve Blossfeld, H. P. (2014). The promise and reality of adult learning in modern societies. In H. P. Blossfeld, E. Kilpi-Jakonen, D. V. Vilhena, ve S. Buchholz(Eds.), Adult learning in modern societies: An international comparison from a life-course perspective. Cheltenham: Edward Elgar Publishing.
  • Yerdelen Tatoğlu, F. (2018). Panel Veri Ekonometrisi: Stata Uygulamalı. Beta Yayınları, İstanbul.
  • Wahler, S., Buchoholz, S., Jensen, V. M. ve Unfried, J. (2014). Adult Learning in Denmark: Patterns of Participation in Adult Learning and Its Impact on Individuals’ Labor Market Outcomes. Adult Learning in Modern Societies içinde (ss. 223-241). Edward Elgar Publishing. https://www.elgaronline.com/display/edcoll/9781783475179/9781783475179.00020.xml adresinden erişildi.

Determination of The Relationship Between Unemployment of Older Workers and Public Spending on Education by Dumitrescu-Hurlin Panel Causality Test

Yıl 2024, Cilt: 5 Sayı: 2, 121 - 137

Öz

One of the most important problems of the current century is population ageing. Since population is also the main determinant of labour supply, the change in population structure directly affects the labour market and the market economy. It becomes important for older workers to continue to supply their labour by delaying their decision to retire, to create age-friendly jobs, workplaces and working conditions, and to keep the knowledge and skills of the older workforce up to date in accordance with the labour market. In addition, age discrimination in the workplace and the negative attitude of the employer towards older workers negatively affect the employment of the older workers and their decision to leave the labour market. The relationship between education and employability has been the focus of previous studies. This study investigates the causality relationship between public spending on education and the unemployment rate of older workers in 26 OECD countries from 2007-2021. The second-generation panel unit root test is used in the study. Dumitrescu-Hurlin causality analysis was performed for heterogeneous series. Based on the findings, a bidirectional causality relationship was found between the unemployment rate of older workers and public spending on Education in GDP.

Kaynakça

  • Brooke, E. (2018). Workforce Ageing in the Australasian Journal on Ageing: Laying the Research Foundations. Australasian Journal on Ageing, 37(1). doi:10.1111/ajag.12513.
  • Cai, L. ve Cong, C. (2009). Effects of Health and Chronic Diseases on Labour Force Participation of Older Working‐age Australians. Australian Economic Papers, 48(2), 166-182. doi:10.1111/j.1467-8454.2009.00365.x.
  • Csanádi, G., Csizmady, A., & Róbert, P. (2014). Adult learning in Hungary: Participation and labor market outcomes. In Adult Learning in Modern Societies (pp. 264-282). Edward Elgar Publishing.
  • Disney, R. ve Hawkes, D. (2003). Why Has Employment Recently Risen Among Older Workers in Britain? R. Dickens, P. Gregg ve J. Wadsworth (Ed.), The Labour Market Under New Labour: The State of Working Britain 2003 içinde (ss. 53-69). London: Palgrave Macmillan UK. doi:10.1057/9780230598454_5.
  • Dumitrescu, E.-I. ve Hurlin, C. (2012). Testing for Granger Non-Causality in Heterogeneous Panels. Economic Modelling, 29(4), 1450-1460. doi:10.1016/j.econmod.2012.02.014
  • Dymock, D., Billett, S., Klieve, H., Johnson, G. ve Martin, G. (2012). Mature Age ‘White Collar’ Workers’ Training and Employability. International Journal of Lifelong Education. 31(2), 171-186, doi:10.1080/02601370.2012.663807.
  • Günaydın, D. (2018). Türkiye’nin Demografik Dönüşümü Çerçevesinde İşgücünün Yaşlanma Sorunu. Yaşlı Sorunları Araştırma Dergisi, 11(1), 1-13. https://dergipark.org.tr/en/pub/yasad/issue/36626/304073 adresinden erişildi.
  • Gündoğan, N. (2001). İşgücünün Yaşlanması ve İşgücü Piyasalarına Etkileri. Ankara Üniversitesi SBF Dergisi, 56(4), 1. doi:10.1501/SBFder_0000001873.
  • Hashem Pesaran, M. ve Yamagata, T. (2008). Testing Slope Homogeneity in Large Panels. Journal of Econometrics, 142(1), 50-93. doi:10.1016/j.jeconom.2007.05.010.
  • Hashim, J. ve Wok, S. (2013). Competence, Performance and Trainability of Older Workers of Higher Educational Institutions in Malaysia. Employee Relations, 36(1), 82-106. doi:10.1108/er-04-2012-0031.
  • Hollywood, E., Brown, R., Danson, M., ve McQuaid, R. W. (2007). Demographic and Labour Market Change: The dynamics of Older Workers in The Scottish Labour Market. Scottish Geographical Journal, 123(4), 242-256. https://doi.org/10.1080/14702540802189677.
  • Hotopp, U. (2005). The Employment Rate of Older Workers. Labour Market Trends, 113(2), 73-88.
  • Katz, L. F. ve Murphy, K. M. (1992). Changes in Relative Wages, 1963–1987: Supply and Demand Factors. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 107(1), 35-78. doi:10.2307/2118323.
  • Mačiulytė-Šniukienė, A., Matuzevičiūtė, K., ve Ruplienė, D. (2019). Evaluating The Impact of Ageing Population on Labour Market. Proceedings of 6th International Scientific Conference Contemporary Issues in Business, Management and Economics Engineering ‘2. https://doi.org/10.3846/cibmee.2019.005.
  • OECD. (2023). Pensions at a Glance 2023. doi:https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1787/678055dd-en Pesaran, M. H. (2007). A Simple Panel Unit Root Test in The Presence of Cross-Section Dependence. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 22(2), 265-312. doi:10.1002/jae.951.
  • Pillay, H., Kelly, K. ve Tones, M. (2006). Career Aspirations of Older Workers: An Australian Study. International Journal of Training and Development, 10(4), 298-305. doi:10.1111/j.1468-2419.2006.00263.x.
  • Raemdonck, I., Tillema, H., de Grip, A., Valcke, M. ve Segers, M. (2012). Does Self-directedness in Learning and Careers Predict the Employability of Low-Qualified Employees? Vocations and Learning, 5(2), 137-151. doi:10.1007/s12186-011-9072-7.
  • Rutledge, M. S., Sass, S. A. ve Ramos-Mercado, J. D. (2017). How Does Occupational Access for Older Workers Differ by Education? Journal of Labor Research, 38(3), 283-305. doi:10.1007/s12122-017-9250-y.
  • Stenberg, A., de Luna, X. ve Westerlund, O. (2012). Can Adult Education Delay Retirement From The Labour Market? Journal of Population Economics, 25(2), 677-696. doi:10.1007/s00148-010-0350-8.
  • Turner, T. (2019). Remaining Active in The Labour Market: Trends and Characteristics of the Over 50s. The Irish Journal of Management, 38(1), 16-25. https://doi.org/10.2478/ijm-2018-0007.
  • Ulu, S. ve Kutani̇s, R. Ö. (2016). İşgücü Piyasalarında Ayrımcılığın Kaynakları. Selçuk Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, (35), 359-372. https://dergipark.org.tr/en/pub/susbed/issue/61815/924938 adresinden erişildi.
  • Vilhena, D. V., Kilpi-Jakonen, E., Schührer, S., ve Blossfeld, H. P. (2014). The promise and reality of adult learning in modern societies. In H. P. Blossfeld, E. Kilpi-Jakonen, D. V. Vilhena, ve S. Buchholz(Eds.), Adult learning in modern societies: An international comparison from a life-course perspective. Cheltenham: Edward Elgar Publishing.
  • Yerdelen Tatoğlu, F. (2018). Panel Veri Ekonometrisi: Stata Uygulamalı. Beta Yayınları, İstanbul.
  • Wahler, S., Buchoholz, S., Jensen, V. M. ve Unfried, J. (2014). Adult Learning in Denmark: Patterns of Participation in Adult Learning and Its Impact on Individuals’ Labor Market Outcomes. Adult Learning in Modern Societies içinde (ss. 223-241). Edward Elgar Publishing. https://www.elgaronline.com/display/edcoll/9781783475179/9781783475179.00020.xml adresinden erişildi.
Toplam 24 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil Türkçe
Konular Çalışma Ekonomisi
Bölüm Makaleler
Yazarlar

Enes Atay 0000-0002-4173-0080

Erken Görünüm Tarihi 22 Aralık 2024
Yayımlanma Tarihi
Gönderilme Tarihi 3 Ağustos 2024
Kabul Tarihi 13 Aralık 2024
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2024 Cilt: 5 Sayı: 2

Kaynak Göster

APA Atay, E. (2024). Yaşlı İşsizliği ve Kamu Eğitim Harcamaları İlişkisinin Dumitrescu-Hurlin Panel Nedensellik Testi ile Belirlenmesi. Toplumsal Politika Dergisi, 5(2), 121-137.