Dünya Belirsizlik Endeksinde ABD Ekonomisinin Rolü: Makroekonomik Faktörler ve Finansal Piyasalar Üzerine Bir Analiz

Yıl 2026, Cilt: 40 Sayı: 1, 101 - 111, 01.01.2026

Nimet Melis Esenyel İçen , Simge Akdağ

https://doi.org/10.16951/trendbusecon.1666962

Öz

Dünya Belirsizlik Endeksi (WUI), ülkelerdeki ekonomik, politik ve sosyal belirsizlikleri ölçmeyi amaçlayan kapsamlı bir göstergedir. Gelişmiş ve gelişmekte olan ülkeleri kapsayan bu endeks, küresel düzeyde belirsizliğin zaman içindeki değişimini izlemek açısından önemli bir araçtır. Bu çalışmada, ABD ekonomisi ve temel küresel göstergelerin, WUI üzerinde olası etkilerinin araştırılması amaçlanmıştır. Bu amaçla, ABD’ye gelen doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar, petrol fiyatları ve S&P500 borsa endeksi değişkenlerinin 1990-2024 yılları arası çeyreklik veri analizde kullanılmıştır. Değişkenlerinin durağanlık düzeyleri KPSS ve Fourier KPSS testleriyle belirlenmiştir. Ardından Tsong vd. (2016) tarafından geliştirilen Fourier-Shin eşbütünleşme testine boostrap yaklaşımı kullanılarak aralarındaki uzun dönem ilişki araştırılmıştır. Eşbütünleşme ilişkisinin varlığının belirlenmesinin ardından FMOLS (tam modifiye en küçük kareler) tahmincisi kullanılarak, modelin uzun dönem parametreleri tahmin edilmiştir. Elde edilen bulgular, ABD’ye gelen doğrudan yabancı yatırımların küresel belirsizliği artırdığını, petrol fiyatlarının ve S&P500 endeksindeki artışın ise belirsizliği azaltıcı etkisi olduğunu göstermektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Dünya belirsizlik endeksi , Durağanlık , Fourier eşbütünleşme , Bootstrap

Teşekkür

Bu çalışmada uygulama kodunun hazırlanmasında sağladığı değerli katkılar ve teknik destek için Doç. Dr. Aycan Hepsağ'a içten teşekkürlerimizi sunarız.

The Role of the US Economies in the World Uncertainty Index: An Analysis of Macroeconomic Factors and Financial Markets

Öz

The World Uncertainty Index (WUI) is a comprehensive indicator designed to measure economic, political, and social uncertainty across countries. Covering both developed and developing economies, the index serves as an important tool for tracking the evolution of global uncertainty over time. This study aims to investigate the potential effects of the U.S. economy and key global indicators on the WUI. For this purpose, quarterly data from 1990 to 2024 on U.S. foreign direct investment, oil prices, and the S&P 500 stock index are used in the analysis. The stationarity levels of the variables are determined using the KPSS and Fourier KPSS tests. Subsequently, the long-run relationship among the variables is examined through the Fourier-Shin cointegration test developed by Tsong et al. (2016), employing a bootstrap approach. Following the confirmation of cointegration, the Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS) estimator is applied to estimate the long-run parameters of the model. The findings indicate that U.S. foreign direct investment increases global uncertainty, while rising oil prices and the S&P 500 index have a mitigating effect on uncertainty.

Anahtar Kelimeler

World uncertainty index , Stationarity , Fourier cointegration , Bootstrap

Teşekkür

We extend our sincere thanks to Assoc. Prof. Dr. Aycan Hepsağ for their valuable contributions and technical support in preparing the application code for this study.

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