İhracat Çeşitliliğinin Türkiye’de İller Bazında İktisadi Büyüme Üzerindeki Etkisi

Yıl 2025, Cilt: 39 Sayı: 1, 1 - 13, 08.01.2025

Muhammed Benli , Sümeyra Gültekin

https://doi.org/10.16951/trendbusecon.1513359

Öz

İhracat çeşitliliği, bir ulusal başarı ölçütü olmanın ötesinde, bölgesel kalkınma, yerel istihdam, inovasyon kapasitesi ve ekonomik dayanıklılıkla yakından ilişkilidir. Mevcut çalışma, ihracat çeşitliliğinin ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkisini 2004-2018 dönemi için Türkiye illeri örneğinde ele almaktadır. Bu amaçla, gözlenemeyen heterojenliği dikkate alan statik panel veri modelleri kullanılarak Sabit Etkiler (FE) ve Rassal Etkiler (RE) tahmincileri kullanılmıştır. Çalışmanın bulguları, kişi başına düşen gelir ile ihracat yoğunluğu (HHI ve GINI) arasında anlamlı bir negatif ilişki olduğunu göstermektedir. Diğer bir deyişle, ihracat çeşitliliği arttıkça kişi başına düşen gelirler de artmaktadır. Diğer yandan, THEIL endeksi için elde edilen katsayılar istatistiksel olarak anlamlı değildir. Bu nedenle, ihracat çeşitliliğinin farklı boyutlarını ölçen endekslerin kavramsal benzerliklerine rağmen farklı etkiler yansıttığı ifade edilebilir. Bulgular, ihracat çeşitliliğinin teşvik edilmesinin bölgesel ekonomik büyümeyi ve dayanıklılığı artırabileceğini işaret etmekte, politika yapıcıların özellikle az gelişmiş bölgelerde ihracat portföylerinin çeşitlendirilmesini teşvik eden stratejilere öncelik vermesi gerektiğini, böylece dengeli bir ekonomik büyüme sağlanabileceğini göstermektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

İhracat Çeşitliliği, Theil İndeksi, Gini İndeksi, HHI, Panel Veri Analizi

The Impact of Export Diversification on Economic Growth by Provinces in Türkiye

Öz

Beyond being a national measure of success, export diversification is closely linked to regional development, local employment, innovation capacity, and economic resilience. In the current study, we investigate the impact of export diversification on economic growth by provinces in the case of Türkiye for the period 2004-2018. For the purpose of the study, we employ static panel data models using Fixed Effects (FE) and Random Effects (RE) estimators, which account for unobserved heterogeneity. The findings of the study show that there is a significant negative relationship between per capita income and export intensity (HHI and GINI). In other words, as export diversification increases, per capita incomes increase. On the other hand, the coefficients obtained for the THEIL index are statistically insignificant. Therefore, it can be argued that indices measuring different dimensions of export diversification reflect different effects despite their conceptual similarities. The findings suggest that promoting export diversification can enhance regional economic growth and resilience, indicating that policymakers should prioritize strategies that encourage diversification of export portfolios, especially in underdeveloped regions, to foster balanced economic growth.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Export Diversification, Theil Index, Gini Index, HHI, Panel Data Analysis

Kaynakça

• Agosin, M. R. (2008). Export diversification and growth in emerging economies. Cepal Review, (97), 115-131. [CrossRef]
• Ahmedov, I. (2020). The impact of digital economy on international trade. European Journal of Business and Management Research, 5(4). [CrossRef]
• Al-Marhubi, F. (2000). Export diversification and growth: an empirical investigation. Applied Economics Letters, 7(9), 559-562. [CrossRef]
• Alshomaly, I., & Shawaqfeh, W. (2020). The effect of export diversification on the economic growth of West-Asian Arab countries. Journal of Social Sciences (COES&RJ-JSS), 9(2), 429-450. [CrossRef]
• Altun, M., & Benli, M. (2021). İhracatta ürün çeşitliliği ve Türkiye’nin büyüme performansı. Dumlupınar Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, (67), 138-158. [CrossRef]
• Arip, M. A., Yee, L. S., & Abdul Karim, B. (2010). Export diversification and economic growth in Malaysia. MPRA Paper No. 20588. [CrossRef]
• Benli̇, M. (2020). Export diversification and economic growth: Evidence from emerging economies. Erciyes Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, (55), 285-298. [CrossRef]
• Benli, M., & Sinan, T. (2022). İleri teknoloji İhracatının İktisadi Büyüme Üzerindeki Etkisi. In Ekonomi ve Finans Alanındaki Uygulamaların Ampirik Sonuçları-2 (pp. 291-302). Bursa: Ekin Yayınevi.
• Bereznoy, A. (2018). Multinational business in the era of global digital revolution. Mirovaia ekonomika i mezhdunarodnye otnosheniia, 62(9), 5-17. [CrossRef]
• Berger, S. (2000). Globalization and politics. Annual Review of Political Science, 3(1), 43-62. [CrossRef]
• Cadot, O., Carrère, C. and Strauss-Kahn, V. (2011) Trade diversification: drivers and impacts. In M. Jansen, R. Peters and J. M. Salazar Xirinachs (eds), Trade and Employment: From Myths to Facts (pp. 253–305). ILO, Geneva: ILO-EC publication. [CrossRef]
• Cadot, O., Carrère, C., & Strauss‐Kahn, V. (2013). Trade diversification, income, and growth: what do we know? Journal of Economic Surveys, 27(4), 790-812. [CrossRef]
• Carrasco, C. A., Tovar-Garcia, E. D., & Tovar-García, E. D. (2020). Export composition and the eurozone trade balance in manufacturing goods. Romanian Journal of Economic Forecasting, 23(1), 134-150.
• De Piñeres, S. A. G., & Ferrantino, M. (1997). Export diversification and structural dynamics in the growth process: The case of Chile. Journal of development Economics, 52(2), 375-391. [CrossRef]
• Dennis, A., & Shepherd, B. (2011). Trade facilitation and export diversification. The World Economy, 34(1), 101-122. [CrossRef]
• El Hag, S., & El Shazly, M. (2012). Oil dependency, export diversification and economic growth in the Arab Gulf States. European Journal of Social Sciences, 29(3), 397-404.
• Feenstra, R. C., & Kee, H. L. (2004). Export variety and country productivity. Nber Working Paper Series 10830. [CrossRef]
• Ferreira, G. F., & Harrison, R. W. (2012). From coffee beans to microchips: Export diversification and economic growth in Costa Rica. Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, 44(4), 517-531. [CrossRef]
• Funke, M., & Ruhwedel, R. (2005). Export variety and economic growth in East European transition economies. Economics of Transition, 13(1), 25-50. [CrossRef]
• Ghibutiu, A. (2013). The changing landscape of international trade. Romanian Economic and Business Review, 8(2), 104. [CrossRef]
• Gnangnon, S. K. (2020). Effect of the internet on services export diversification. Journal of Economic Integration, 35(3), 519-558. [CrossRef]
• Gnangnon, S. K. (2021). Effect of multilateral trade liberalization on services export diversification. Journal of Economic Studies, 49(6), 1117-1136. [CrossRef]
• Greene, W. H. (2003). Econometric analysis. Pearson Education India.
• Greene, W. H. (2012). Econometric analysis. 7 ed., Upper Saddle River, NJ USA: Prentice Hall.
• Grossman, G. M., & Helpman, E. (1991). Trade, knowledge spillovers, and growth. European Economic Review, 35(2-3), 517-526. [CrossRef]
• Gujarati, D. (2016). Örneklerle ekonometri (Çev. Bolatoğlu, N.). İstanbul: BB101 Yayınları.
• Haddad, M., Lim, J. J., Pancaro, C., & Saborowski, C. (2013). Trade openness reduces growth volatility when countries are well diversified. Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, 46(2), 765-790. [CrossRef]
• Hamed, K., Hadi, D., & Hossein, K. (2014). Export diversification and economic growth in some selected developing countries. African Journal of Business Management, 8(17), 700-704. [CrossRef]
• Herzog, L. A. (2014). Globalisation, place and twenty-first-century international border regions: an introduction to the special issue. Global Society, 28(4), 391-397. [CrossRef]
• Jones, E., & Adam, C. (2023). New frontiers of trade and trade policy: digitalization and climate change. Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 39(1), 1-11. [CrossRef]
• Krugman, P. (1979). A model of innovation, technology transfer, and the world distribution of income. Journal of Political Economy, 87(2), 253-266. [CrossRef]
• Love, J. (1986). Commodity concentration and export instability: the choice of concentration measure and analytical framework. The Journal of Developing Areas, 21(1), 63-74.
• Masunda, S. (2020). Export diversification effects of aid for trade in sub-Saharan Africa. Journal of African Trade, 7(1/2), 29-36. [CrossRef]
• Nkurunziza, J. D. (2021). The commodity dependence trap. Geneva, UNCTAD, background document to the Commodities and Development Report.
• Nwosa, P. I., Tosin, F. O., & Ikechukwu, O. M. (2019). Export diversification and economic growth in Nigeria. Signifikan: Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi, 8(2), 227-234. [CrossRef]
• Oliveira, J. S., Cadogan, J. W., Gnizy, I., & Abdul-Talib, A. N. (2024). How many eggs in how many baskets? National versus regional diversification strategies and export success. Journal of Strategic Marketing, 32(3), 251-265. [CrossRef]
• Radu, L. (2022). Dimensions of Globalization in the Contemporary Era. Anuarul Institutului de Cercetări Socio-Umane “CS Nicolăescu-Plopșor”, (XXIII), 227-240. [CrossRef]
• Sadok, C., & Nadjat, D-S. (2022). Impact of Export Diversification on Economic Growth in Algeria. Economy and Environment Review, 5(1), 491-514. [CrossRef]
• Sangita, S. (2018). India’s exports through the lens of diversification. In Changing the Indian Economy (pp. 21-35). Elsevier. [CrossRef]
• Siddiqui, A. H. (2018). Export diversification and growth in Pakistan: An empirical investigation from 1972 to 2015 1. Business and Economic Review, 10(1), 107-131. [CrossRef]
• Tatoğlu, F. (2012). Panel veri ekonometrisi. İstanbul: Beta yayıncılık.
• Yakubu, I. N., Kapusuzoglu, A., & Ceylan, N. B. (2022). Investigating the role of export diversification, remittances, and environmental sustainability in accordance with clean energy and zero emission. Contributions to Economics, 51-65. [CrossRef]
• Yaşar, E. (2021). İhracat çeşitlendirmesinin belirleyicileri: Seçilmiş ülkeler için dinamik panel veri analizi. Anemon Muş Alparslan Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 9(4), 1039-1054. [CrossRef]
• Yeung, Y. M. (1998). The promise and peril of globalization. Progress in Human Geography, 22(4), 475-477.[CrossRef]